taken from a recent fb post

XGID=--b-DCD-B----------bbbdBc-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O |
| X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 91 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. XG Roller+ 5/3(2) 5/1 eq:+0.122
Player: 52.78% (G:10.68% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 47.22% (G:9.16% B:0.21%)

2. XG Roller+ 6/4(2) 5/1 eq:+0.068 (-0.054)
Player: 52.07% (G:10.19% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 47.93% (G:9.76% B:0.23%)

3. XG Roller+ 6/4 5/3(3) eq:-0.036 (-0.158)
Player: 49.03% (G:8.16% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 50.97% (G:9.31% B:0.22%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
--
BD

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/18/2022 7:31 AM, BlueDice wrote:

taken from a recent fb post

XGID=--b-DCD-B----------bbbdBc-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O |
| X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 91 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. XG Roller+ 5/3(2) 5/1 eq:+0.122
2. XG Roller+ 6/4(2) 5/1 eq:+0.068 (-0.054)
3. XG Roller+ 6/4 5/3(3) eq:-0.036 (-0.158)

Why it's *so* much worse I don't know if I can explain, but given that
you're playing 5/3(3), it should be clear that 3/1 is more flexible
than 6/4. X is not yet at the stage where he's simply "clearing from
the rear"; he still has two checkers on the other side of the board
and there's a lot of game left to play. So it's sensible to keep an
extra spare on the 6 for flexibility. Playing 3/1 also gives him
better chances of improving his board, which will come in handy if and
when there's an exchange of hits later on.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

By the way, here's an analysis tip that can be especially useful
in positions like this one that are relatively "quiet" with no
obvious immediate jokers or anti-jokers. Set up the position in
XG after Play A, and in a separate copy of XG, set up the position
after Play B. Pick some roll for O (it doesn't matter which roll)
and then select "Analyze -> Dice Distribution." You'll see that
in this case, O's equity is higher "across the board"; i.e., the
position is better for O after Play B than after Play A, almost
no matter what O rolls. When this happens, it typically means
that the superiority of Play A is a long-term positional one,
rather than anything to do with immediate jokers or anti-jokers.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/19/2022 10:06 AM, I wrote:

By the way, here's an analysis tip that can be especially useful
in positions like this one that are relatively "quiet" with no
obvious immediate jokers or anti-jokers.  Set up the position in
XG after Play A, and in a separate copy of XG, set up the position
after Play B.  Pick some roll for O (it doesn't matter which roll)
and then select "Analyze -> Dice Distribution."  You'll see that
in this case, O's equity is higher "across the board"; i.e., the
position is better for O after Play B than after Play A, almost
no matter what O rolls.  When this happens, it typically means
that the superiority of Play A is a long-term positional one,
rather than anything to do with immediate jokers or anti-jokers.

I forgot to mention that as a further check, you can do the same kind
of dice-distribution comparison with *X on roll*. This is akin to
comparing X's position after the two plays if O were to pass her turn. Obviously one has to be cautious in interpreting these results because
in real life, passing your turn is illegal, but this trick sometimes
reveals that Play B gives X some really bad rolls next turn.

In the case at hand, we again find that Play A is better pretty much
across the board, confirming that it's a long-term positional thing.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, January 19, 2022 at 3:13:05 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On 1/19/2022 10:06 AM, I wrote:

By the way, here's an analysis tip that can be especially useful
in positions like this one that are relatively "quiet" with no
obvious immediate jokers or anti-jokers. Set up the position in
XG after Play A, and in a separate copy of XG, set up the position
after Play B. Pick some roll for O (it doesn't matter which roll)
and then select "Analyze -> Dice Distribution." You'll see that
in this case, O's equity is higher "across the board"; i.e., the
position is better for O after Play B than after Play A, almost
no matter what O rolls. When this happens, it typically means
that the superiority of Play A is a long-term positional one,
rather than anything to do with immediate jokers or anti-jokers.

I forgot to mention that as a further check, you can do the same kind
of dice-distribution comparison with *X on roll*. This is akin to
comparing X's position after the two plays if O were to pass her turn. Obviously one has to be cautious in interpreting these results because
in real life, passing your turn is illegal, but this trick sometimes
reveals that Play B gives X some really bad rolls next turn.

In the case at hand, we again find that Play A is better pretty much
across the board, confirming that it's a long-term positional thing.

---
Tim Chow

Nice tip!
I'll be sure to utilise it, thanks.
--
BD

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, January 19, 2022 at 4:02:02 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On 1/18/2022 7:31 AM, BlueDice wrote:

taken from a recent fb post

XGID=--b-DCD-B----------bbbdBc-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O |
| X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 91 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. XG Roller+ 5/3(2) 5/1 eq:+0.122
2. XG Roller+ 6/4(2) 5/1 eq:+0.068 (-0.054)
3. XG Roller+ 6/4 5/3(3) eq:-0.036 (-0.158)

Why it's *so* much worse I don't know if I can explain, but given that
you're playing 5/3(3), it should be clear that 3/1 is more flexible
than 6/4. X is not yet at the stage where he's simply "clearing from
the rear"; he still has two checkers on the other side of the board
and there's a lot of game left to play. So it's sensible to keep an
extra spare on the 6 for flexibility. Playing 3/1 also gives him
better chances of improving his board, which will come in handy if and
when there's an exchange of hits later on.

---
Tim Chow

Thanks, great response.
I did note that the top play leaves an extra spare available for making the 5 point but now I think that your 'flexibility' and 'ace point' reasoning does a better job of understanding the overall position.
--
BD

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)