• Please may I play just one 2 instead of four?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 17 09:45:54 2022
    XGID=a-AaBBBBBB--------ccbbc-AA:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O X | +---+
    | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X | | X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 129 O: 113 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 22

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jan 19 09:04:51 2022
    XGID=a-AaBBBBBB--------ccbbc-AA:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O X | +---+
    | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X | | X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 129 O: 113 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 22

    Given that O has a five-prime of her own, it seems a bit scary to
    give her a double shot from the bar. But it's thematic in a priming
    game to keep as large a solid prime as possible and knock the opponent
    off the front of it. After 9/3*, it's not so disastrous for X if O
    hits X on his 2pt, plus 9/3* has the best upside if O rolls poorly.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 9/3* eq:-0.204
    Player: 52.83% (G:15.02% B:0.66%)
    Opponent: 47.17% (G:22.93% B:2.65%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.220..-0.189) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/2 eq:-0.319 (-0.115)
    Player: 46.95% (G:13.88% B:0.46%)
    Opponent: 53.05% (G:20.41% B:1.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.329..-0.309) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 9/7 9/5 eq:-0.355 (-0.151)
    Player: 46.22% (G:12.16% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 53.78% (G:21.04% B:1.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.368..-0.342) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)