XGID=b--A-BDAB---bB-b-b-cbBb-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O X |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=b--A-BDAB---bB-b-b-cbBb-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O X |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

In mid-game blitz positions, I'm more likely to miss a double than to
double too soon, but this is an exception. X has ten checkers in the
zone and an advanced anchor, and O has two on the bar, so I thought
that was enough to justify a double. But O's position is otherwise
pretty good---she has the stronger board and an extra outfield point
made, with no stray blots to pick up. X is actually slightly behind
in the pip count and has a straggler to escape, not to mention a blot
in his board to clean up.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 58.22% (G:27.43% B:0.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.78% (G:11.85% B:0.60%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.49% (G:27.87% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.51% (G:11.88% B:0.64%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.572
Redouble/Take: +0.337 (-0.235)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.428)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 26.2%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.560..+0.584)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+0.314..+0.360)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aA-B-BDbB---bB-A-bAcc-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O X | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aA-B-BDbB---bB-A-bAcc-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O X | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

With 11 checkers in the zone and both back checkers escaped, X is
doing pretty well and I thought this was a good double, and I wasn't
even sure it was a take. However, XG says that it's not even a double.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 61.14% (G:24.75% B:0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.86% (G:11.59% B:0.52%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.31% (G:24.89% B:0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.69% (G:11.79% B:0.58%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.500
Double/Take: +0.428 (-0.071)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.500)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.4%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.487..+0.512)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.411..+0.446)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)