On Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 6:12:59 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=--A-abECBB--aB-a---cbabb--:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52
52 is probably X's unluckiest roll in this position. The general
principle in this type of holding game, where X has a comfortable
lead in the pip count and a significantly weaker board, is to play
safe. But 8/6 8/3 looked very awkward to me and O does have a blot
in her board, so I tried 9/4*/2. That might be the gammon go play,
but not at a normal score, according to the rollout below.
1. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/3 eq:+0.295
Player: 68.18% (G:3.78% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 31.82% (G:2.37% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.289..+0.301) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 9/4* 4/2 eq:+0.155 (-0.140)
Player: 63.00% (G:8.60% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 37.00% (G:9.45% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.148..+0.162) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 7/2 6/4* eq:+0.046 (-0.249)
Player: 60.87% (G:8.06% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 39.13% (G:12.45% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.038..+0.054) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
[21] is the 'unluckiest' roll in this position.
At pure gammon go the safe play is still correct by the smallest of margins.
Stick
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