XGID=--Bb-aECB--A---Bababcab---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X O X |
| X X X | | X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--Bb-aECB--A---Bababcab---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X O X |
| X X X | | X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

It seemed to me that a moderately lucky exchange for X, such as
rolling 31, followed by O entering with something like 42, would
lose my market. But XG regards that as a comfortable take. So
it stands to reason that XG would not double here.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.75% (G:8.82% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.25% (G:6.28% B:0.19%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.96% (G:8.87% B:0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.04% (G:6.37% B:0.21%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.597
Double/Take: +0.497 (-0.101)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.403)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.7%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.586..+0.609)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.479..+0.514)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)