On Saturday, August 28, 2021 at 1:46:16 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
On 8/28/2021 6:31 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
XGID=-bBBCBB-------aB-b-bbbbb-B:3:-1:-1:00:4:4:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
Score is X:4 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | | +---+
| O X | | X X X X X | | 8 |
| X O X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 124 X-O: 4-4
Cube: 8, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Years ago, Matt Cohn-Geier wrote an article about this type
of position, and did indeed consider lots of variants. X does
not have a huge amount of spare pips here but O also has those
two checkers in the outfield, so she's at high risk of losing
a gammon. I would guess this one is D/P, but these are tough
Actually a clear take, as per rollout below. I did take this one quite confidently, but I
think my confidence was misplaced because you'd only need to
variantize very mildly to turn it into D/P.
I'm not sure I would have doubled OTB. Needing two sixes can be quite scary.
Paul
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 65.09% (G:38.49% B:0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.91% (G:8.82% B:0.47%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.08% (G:38.60% B:0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.92% (G:9.08% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.600, Double=+1.197
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.761 (-0.177)
Redouble/Take: +0.938
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.062)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
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