• Anchor or make the 5pt?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 3 23:37:49 2022
    XGID=-a--B-D-B--BdC---c-b-AcbA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 154 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 31

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jan 5 21:43:01 2022
    XGID=-a--B-D-B--BdC---c-b-AcbA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 154 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 31

    There's an early-game adage, which I learned from Nack Ballard:
    "either 5pt beats either 4pt." However, in this position, we're
    transitioning out of the early game into the midgame. Making
    the 5pt comes at the expense of giving up the 8pt. And anchoring
    puts 5 of O's checkers out of play---O wouldn't mind putting those
    checkers deep in her home board to good use by attacking, and
    anchoring nips those plans in the bud.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/21 6/5 eq:+0.163
    Player: 54.23% (G:14.52% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 45.77% (G:12.05% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.150..+0.177) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/21 11/10 eq:+0.113 (-0.050)
    Player: 52.60% (G:13.72% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 47.40% (G:10.63% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.101..+0.125) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.071 (-0.092)
    Player: 52.75% (G:16.49% B:0.65%)
    Opponent: 47.25% (G:18.15% B:0.69%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.059..+0.083) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)