• 3-away/4-away checker play

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 27 09:40:01 2021
    XGID=-Bb-a-C-C---bD-Aad-c---bAA:0:0:1:42:4:3:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:4 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    | O X | | X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 156 X-O: 4-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Aug 29 20:41:53 2021
    XGID=-Bb-a-C-C---bD-Aad-c---bAA:0:0:1:42:4:3:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:4 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    | O X | | X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 156 X-O: 4-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    This one I found odd because it violated my intuition about the score.
    For money, XG rates 6/4* and 15/13 about the same. I would have
    expected that if XG had a clear preference ATS, it would be for the
    less gammonish play of 15/13, since my intuition is that the 3-away
    player will want to steer away from gammonish positions while the
    4-away player will want to encourage them. I don't have a good
    explanation for this one.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/4* eq:-0.369
    Player: 46.74% (G:15.44% B:1.62%)
    Opponent: 53.26% (G:19.89% B:2.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.378..-0.360) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 15/13 eq:-0.438 (-0.069)
    Player: 46.38% (G:14.40% B:1.49%)
    Opponent: 53.62% (G:19.30% B:1.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.447..-0.429) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Jacobs & Trice

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=-Bb-a-C-C---bD-Aad-c---bAA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    | O X | | X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/4* eq:-0.152
    Player: 47.15% (G:14.56% B:0.60%)
    Opponent: 52.85% (G:20.33% B:1.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.161..-0.144) - [99.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 15/13 eq:-0.167 (-0.015)
    Player: 46.67% (G:13.15% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 53.33% (G:19.10% B:0.71%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.175..-0.160) - [0.4%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ----
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From J R@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Sep 1 10:48:21 2021
    On Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 8:41:56 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-Bb-a-C-C---bD-Aad-c---bAA:0:0:1:42:4:3:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:4 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    | O X | | X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 156 X-O: 4-3/7
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42
    This one I found odd because it violated my intuition about the score.
    For money, XG rates 6/4* and 15/13 about the same. I would have
    expected that if XG had a clear preference ATS, it would be for the
    less gammonish play of 15/13, since my intuition is that the 3-away
    player will want to steer away from gammonish positions while the
    4-away player will want to encourage them. I don't have a good
    explanation for this one.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/4* eq:-0.369
    Player: 46.74% (G:15.44% B:1.62%)
    Opponent: 53.26% (G:19.89% B:2.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.378..-0.360) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 15/13 eq:-0.438 (-0.069)
    Player: 46.38% (G:14.40% B:1.49%)
    Opponent: 53.62% (G:19.30% B:1.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.447..-0.429) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Jacobs & Trice

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=-Bb-a-C-C---bD-Aad-c---bAA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    | O X | | X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42
    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/4* eq:-0.152
    Player: 47.15% (G:14.56% B:0.60%)
    Opponent: 52.85% (G:20.33% B:1.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.161..-0.144) - [99.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 15/13 eq:-0.167 (-0.015)
    Player: 46.67% (G:13.15% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 53.33% (G:19.10% B:0.71%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.175..-0.160) - [0.4%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ----
    Tim Chow

    Without thinking too much about it it's likely because AtS we get to drop a lot of immediate cubes on the bad sequences that we'd have to take for money. (opponent blows by his market by a mile but is unable to cube this turn)

    Stick

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