XGID=-a---BE-CAa-bB--A-bb-bAcb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 11:16:41 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-a---BE-CAa-bB--A-bb-bAcb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

A play commonly seen enough in some early game positions.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a---BE-CAa-bB--A-bb-bAcb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

Unfortunately I can't seem to find it, but there was an interesting
thread on BGOnline years ago about switching points from the 5pt to
the 1pt or 2pt. Since we're trained to value the 5pt much more
highly than the 1pt or 2pt, such plays can be hard to see. Here,
though, it's pretty clear we need a tempo hit since we have too
many vulnerable blots and O has the stronger board. The question
is whether to hit loose on the 1pt or switch points. I opted to
hit loose, but minimizing return shots is very important here.

1. Rollout¹ 6/2(2) 5/1*(2) eq:-0.034
Player: 47.32% (G:18.60% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 52.68% (G:23.46% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.043..-0.025) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/1* 6/2(2) eq:-0.129 (-0.096)
Player: 45.80% (G:17.04% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 54.20% (G:26.19% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.141..-0.117) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/1* 8/4(2) eq:-0.163 (-0.129)
Player: 44.92% (G:18.17% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 55.08% (G:29.70% B:1.45%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.175..-0.151) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 5/1*(2) eq:-0.191 (-0.158)
Player: 44.15% (G:17.95% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 55.85% (G:26.31% B:1.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.204..-0.179) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)