-
Mutual holding game
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sun Aug 1 19:28:07 2021
No crypt hash since I couldn't think of a good subject line.
XGID=----AbC-BB-BaB----cebC-b--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| O | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Wed Aug 4 09:17:59 2021
XGID=----AbC-BB-BaB----cebC-b--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| O | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51
The hit seems natural, but then what's the 5? I opted to cover the 4pt,
but was dinged with a whopper with cheese. X is far behind in the pip
count and so shouldn't be breaking points in his prime. 21/16 13/12* is
better than 13/12* 9/4 according to XG, but the top play in the rollout
is 21/15. This surprises me a little since 21/16 13/12* creates more
builders for the 10pt and 7pt, but XG seems to think it loses too many
extra gammons.
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 eq:+0.027
Player: 51.12% (G:9.28% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 48.88% (G:16.79% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (+0.007..+0.047) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/16 13/12* eq:-0.039 (-0.066)
Player: 51.07% (G:9.84% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 48.93% (G:19.07% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.029 (-0.068..-0.010) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 9/8 9/4 eq:-0.082 (-0.109)
Player: 47.75% (G:8.62% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 52.25% (G:15.07% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.099..-0.066) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/12* eq:-0.103 (-0.130)
Player: 49.02% (G:9.07% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 50.98% (G:17.95% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.121..-0.085) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 13/12* 9/4 eq:-0.121 (-0.149)
Player: 48.17% (G:8.90% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 51.83% (G:17.77% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.136..-0.107) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Tue Jan 11 18:18:25 2022
XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X |
| X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
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From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Fri Jan 14 08:58:21 2022
XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X |
| X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
Behind in the race, I eschewed 24/20 because I wanted more contact.
Well, according to XG, maximizing contact is the right idea at DMP
but loses too many gammons for money.
Not an exception to Stick's DMP rule, of course, since it's obvious
(to Stick) that staying back loses too many gammons.
1. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.430
Player: 36.08% (G:5.26% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 63.92% (G:7.04% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.444..-0.416) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.509 (-0.079)
Player: 36.52% (G:8.21% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 63.48% (G:14.09% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.522..-0.496) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.529 (-0.099)
Player: 35.09% (G:6.32% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 64.91% (G:10.36% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.540..-0.517) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
DMP
---
XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X |
| X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 41
1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
Player: 37.03% (G:7.76% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 62.97% (G:19.09% B:1.59%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.264..-0.254) - [100.0%]
2. Rollo
-
From
J R@21:1/5 to
Tim Chow on Fri Jan 14 11:52:05 2022
On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 8:58:26 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X |
| X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
Behind in the race, I eschewed 24/20 because I wanted more contact.
Well, according to XG, maximizing contact is the right idea at DMP
but loses too many gammons for money.
Not an exception to Stick's DMP rule, of course, since it's obvious
(to Stick) that staying back loses too many gammons.
1. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.430
Player: 36.08% (G:5.26% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 63.92% (G:7.04% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.444..-0.416) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.509 (-0.079)
Player: 36.52% (G:8.21% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 63.48% (G:14.09% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.522..-0.496) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.529 (-0.099)
Player: 35.09% (G:6.32% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 64.91% (G:10.36% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.540..-0.517) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
DMP
---
XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X |
| X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 41
1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
Player: 37.03% (G:7.76% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 62.97% (G:19.09% B:1.59%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.264..-0.254) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
Player: 35.68% (G:4.38% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 64.32% (G:9.43% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.290..-0.282) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/5 eq:-0.288 (-0.028)
Player: 35.62% (G:7.43% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 64.38% (G:19.58% B:1.54%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.293..-0.283) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.293 (-0.034)
Player: 35.34% (G:6.28% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 64.66% (G:14.95% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.298..-0.289) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
---
Tim Chow
Or not an exception to my dmp rule because it doesn't fit the criteria but you know, whatever you want.
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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-
From
pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to
J R on Fri Jan 14 12:14:38 2022
On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 7:52:06 PM UTC, J R wrote:
On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 8:58:26 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X |
| X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
Behind in the race, I eschewed 24/20 because I wanted more contact.
Well, according to XG, maximizing contact is the right idea at DMP
but loses too many gammons for money.
Not an exception to Stick's DMP rule, of course, since it's obvious
(to Stick) that staying back loses too many gammons.
1. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.430
Player: 36.08% (G:5.26% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 63.92% (G:7.04% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.444..-0.416) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.509 (-0.079)
Player: 36.52% (G:8.21% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 63.48% (G:14.09% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.522..-0.496) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.529 (-0.099)
Player: 35.09% (G:6.32% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 64.91% (G:10.36% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.540..-0.517) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
DMP
---
XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X |
| X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 41
1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
Player: 37.03% (G:7.76% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 62.97% (G:19.09% B:1.59%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.264..-0.254) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
Player: 35.68% (G:4.38% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 64.32% (G:9.43% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.290..-0.282) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/5 eq:-0.288 (-0.028)
Player: 35.62% (G:7.43% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 64.38% (G:19.58% B:1.54%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.293..-0.283) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.293 (-0.034)
Player: 35.34% (G:6.28% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 64.66% (G:14.95% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.298..-0.289) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
---
Tim Chow
Or not an exception to my dmp rule because it doesn't fit the criteria but you know, whatever you want.
Stick
I agree with Stick on this one. I think Stick's point is to be suspicious of eschewing plays which would be clearly correct at DMP,
in the hope of gaining more gammons, or losing fewer gammons.
Here, the plays are very close at DMP so it doesn't contradict Stick's adage (although a lot of other positions do).
Paul
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
peps...@gmail.com on Sat Jan 15 12:07:55 2022
On 1/14/2022 3:14 PM,
peps...@gmail.com wrote:
1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
Or not an exception to my dmp rule because it doesn't fit the criteria but you know, whatever you want.
Yes, of course there are always many ways to explain why a
position doesn't violate your DMP rule.
I agree with Stick on this one. I think Stick's point is to be suspicious of eschewing plays which would be clearly correct at DMP,
in the hope of gaining more gammons, or losing fewer gammons.
Here, the plays are very close at DMP so it doesn't contradict Stick's adage (although a lot of other positions do).
Normally, Stick wouldn't call a difference of -0.027 at DMP
"very close." It would be clear.
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From
pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to
Tim Chow on Sat Jan 15 10:13:54 2022
On Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 5:07:59 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
On 1/14/2022 3:14 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
Or not an exception to my dmp rule because it doesn't fit the criteria but you know, whatever you want.
Yes, of course there are always many ways to explain why a
position doesn't violate your DMP rule.
I agree with Stick on this one. I think Stick's point is to be suspicious of eschewing plays which would be clearly correct at DMP,
in the hope of gaining more gammons, or losing fewer gammons.
Here, the plays are very close at DMP so it doesn't contradict Stick's adage (although a lot of other positions do).
Normally, Stick wouldn't call a difference of -0.027 at DMP
"very close." It would be clear.
You're correct about Stick saying that small differences in equity are "clear". But I don't think that contradicts what I said, and it
leads to an interesting (to me) philosophical aside.
Suppose that A says (in my opinion correctly) "Serena Williams is a truly great tennis player" but has also said (in my opinion wrongly) "No truly great tennis player would ever serve a double fault."
Then I would argue that A's assertion about the greatness of Williams is correct anyway, even though the reasoning of A can be used to contradict A's valid assertion.
Paul
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From
Stick Rice@21:1/5 to
Tim Chow on Mon Jan 17 14:03:09 2022
On Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 12:07:59 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
On 1/14/2022 3:14 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
Or not an exception to my dmp rule because it doesn't fit the criteria but you know, whatever you want.
Yes, of course there are always many ways to explain why a
position doesn't violate your DMP rule.
I agree with Stick on this one. I think Stick's point is to be suspicious of eschewing plays which would be clearly correct at DMP,
in the hope of gaining more gammons, or losing fewer gammons.
Here, the plays are very close at DMP so it doesn't contradict Stick's adage (although a lot of other positions do).
Normally, Stick wouldn't call a difference of -0.027 at DMP
"very close." It would be clear.
---
Tim Chow
I don't like putting a % on it because it depends on the difficulty of the play involved but when I have tried to give someone a % for being 'clear' at dmp I have typically quoted 2% or .040. Or again, like I said, whatever you want.
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
Stick Rice on Tue Jan 18 23:24:26 2022
On 1/17/2022 5:03 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
I don't like putting a % on it because it depends on the difficulty of the play involved but when I have tried to give someone a % for being 'clear' at dmp I have typically quoted 2% or .040. Or again, like I said, whatever you want.
So for example, in this post---
https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/98kFoFuXBQU/m/cMjXIzuiCQAJ
---you wrote:
@Paul - remember this is set up at dmp so even though it's 'only' a
.020 error that equates to 1% match winning chances which to me is a
big deal. It's likely that at a normal score the error is bigger. I
count .020 errors at dmp as blunder.
I suppose, though, that a "blunder" that is a "big deal" is not
necessarily "clearly wrong." It's always good to have plenty of
loopholes to ensure that the DMP rule is never wrong.
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From
Stick Rice@21:1/5 to
Tim Chow on Wed Jan 19 00:31:39 2022
On Tuesday, January 18, 2022 at 11:24:30 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
On 1/17/2022 5:03 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
I don't like putting a % on it because it depends on the difficulty of the play involved but when I have tried to give someone a % for being 'clear' at dmp I have typically quoted 2% or .040. Or again, like I said, whatever you want.
So for example, in this post---
https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/98kFoFuXBQU/m/cMjXIzuiCQAJ
---you wrote:
@Paul - remember this is set up at dmp so even though it's 'only' a
.020 error that equates to 1% match winning chances which to me is a
big deal. It's likely that at a normal score the error is bigger. I
count .020 errors at dmp as blunder.
I suppose, though, that a "blunder" that is a "big deal" is not
necessarily "clearly wrong." It's always good to have plenty of
loopholes to ensure that the DMP rule is never wrong.
---
Tim Chow
Yawn. It's so early. You guys want to get some coffee or something?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1p6omIzsuY
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Wed Mar 16 09:31:54 2022
XGID=-b--B-D-C-aBAA---cbc-Bb-b-:1:1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O |
| O O | | O X O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X X O X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 64
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Fri Mar 18 09:00:41 2022
XGID=-b--B-D-C-aBAA---cbc-Bb-b-:1:1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O |
| O O | | O X O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X X O X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 64
Typically, in a mutual holding game, one tries to avoid leaving
more shots than necessary. However, making the bar point here
is huge, and the rollout below says it's well worth the double
direct shot that it leaves.
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 11/7 eq:+0.496
Player: 59.71% (G:16.21% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 40.29% (G:11.50% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.487..+0.506) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 12/6 eq:+0.402 (-0.094)
Player: 55.82% (G:16.94% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 44.18% (G:10.14% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.391..+0.413) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Stick Rice@21:1/5 to
Tim Chow on Fri Mar 18 19:36:04 2022
On Friday, March 18, 2022 at 9:00:45 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-b--B-D-C-aBAA---cbc-Bb-b-:1:1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O |
| O O | | O X O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X X O X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 64
Typically, in a mutual holding game, one tries to avoid leaving
more shots than necessary. However, making the bar point here
is huge, and the rollout below says it's well worth the double
direct shot that it leaves.
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 11/7 eq:+0.496
Player: 59.71% (G:16.21% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 40.29% (G:11.50% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.487..+0.506) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 12/6 eq:+0.402 (-0.094)
Player: 55.82% (G:16.94% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 44.18% (G:10.14% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.391..+0.413) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
This is not a mutual holding game.
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sat Apr 2 09:49:48 2022
XGID=-B-B-bB-C--AeC---c-cBb----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Tue Apr 5 09:05:37 2022
XGID=-B-B-bB-C--AeC---c-cBb----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
Typically, in a mutual holding game, one doesn't volunteer a direct
shot if the safe play is "reasonable." Here I played 11/2 OTB and
admittedly XG says it's only a 0.045 error, which is not huge, but
it did surprise me that XG favors 13/7 11/8, which not only volunteers
a direct shot but doesn't look that attractive distributionally. But
O will not hit with a 21, and after my play of 11/2, the blot on the
2pt means that O's blot-leaving rolls aren't as bad as they would be
otherwise.
For comparison, in the variant, I have changed the roll to 61.
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 11/8 eq:+0.164
Player: 54.30% (G:11.81% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 45.70% (G:7.55% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.153..+0.175) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 11/2 eq:+0.119 (-0.045)
Player: 53.50% (G:10.58% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 46.50% (G:8.81% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.107..+0.132) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.118 (-0.046)
Player: 52.92% (G:12.65% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 47.08% (G:7.72% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.106..+0.130) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+0.102 (-0.062)
Player: 52.93% (G:10.87% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 47.07% (G:11.27% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.087..+0.117) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-B-B-bB-C--AeC---c-cBb----:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
1. Rollout¹ 11/4 eq:+0.164
Player: 54.73% (G:10.36% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 45.27% (G:7.90% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.152..+0.175) - [96.6%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:+0.149 (-0.015)
Player: 53.57% (G:12.53% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 46.43% (G:7.30% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.138..+0.159) - [3.2%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.140 (-0.023)
Player: 53.44% (G:12.01% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 46.56% (G:7.52% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.129..+0.152) - [0.2%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Fri Jul 15 22:22:28 2022
XGID=-BAAAbBBB--Bba----Bdbab-a-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
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From
atilamalcok@gmail.com@21:1/5 to
All on Sun Jul 17 06:04:40 2022
16 Temmuz 2022 Cumartesi tarihinde saat 05:22:33 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
XGID=-BAAAbBBB--Bba----Bdbab-a-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
---
Tim Chow
The only way to play a safe six is 7/1, 7/4 but it is inevitable that X will leave awkward blots in the outfield on his next turn. 8/2, 7/4 perfectly duplicates the opponent's twos and threes.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Mon Jul 18 00:11:51 2022
XGID=-BAAAbBBB--Bba----Bdbab-a-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
This isn't the only mutual holding game position I've seen where XG
volunteers a double shot, but such positions are pretty rare. I'm
still not sure why XG thinks 8/2 7/4 is so much better than 11/2
(see the variant for example).
1. Rollout¹ 8/2 7/4 eq:+0.057
Player: 52.39% (G:14.33% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 47.61% (G:16.02% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.047..+0.067) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 11/2 eq:-0.007 (-0.064)
Player: 50.97% (G:11.39% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 49.03% (G:13.66% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.017..+0.003) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 7/4 7/1 eq:-0.033 (-0.090)
Player: 50.12% (G:8.18% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 49.88% (G:13.54% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.044..-0.022) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-BA-AbCBB--Bc-----Bdbab-a-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
1. Rollout¹ 8/2 7/4 eq:+0.034
Player: 51.81% (G:12.23% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 48.19% (G:13.92% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.026..+0.042) - [99.9%]
2. Rollout¹ 11/2 eq:+0.017 (-0.017)
Player: 51.69% (G:9.78% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 48.31% (G:11.10% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.010..+0.024) - [0.1%]
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sat Jan 28 09:56:07 2023
XGID=-AB-b-D----BbD---bBcbbb---:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X O X | | 2 |
| O X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
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From
pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to
Tim Chow on Sun Jan 29 05:37:36 2023
On Saturday, January 28, 2023 at 2:56:09 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-AB-b-D----BbD---bBcbbb---:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X O X | | 2 |
| O X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33
---
Tim Chow
11/8(2) 6/3(2). The 18 point anchor is needed.
The 8 point is a better point than the 11 point.
An extra inner board point is valuable.
And 11/8(2) 13/10(2) is TMP ("too many points").
It's a difficult problem [if you're not Stick] with a lot of candidates and
I don't expect to be correct.
11/5(2) is definitely a candidate but the 5 point value is diminished when our 4 point is occupied, and I prefer my play to this.
11/8(2) 6/3(2).
Paul
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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-
From
ah....Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Sun Jan 29 20:04:57 2023
On 1/28/2023 9:56 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-AB-b-D----BbD---bBcbbb---:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X O X | | 2 |
| O X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33
When in doubt, make the five point. But I've found that it's often
incorrect to make the five point if you can make additional points.
Here, 11/5(2) doesn't make an additional point, so I won't play that.
The bar point doesn't do much to block O with her anchored on the four
point. Making the ten point blocks sixes and 11/8 blocks fours, so with
an even race after this play that seems to be the right idea.
Perhaps moving off the 18 is the right idea since the race is about even
and O will have a hard time extricating her runners, but I'll just make
the blockade. 13/10(2) 11/8(2).
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Mon Jan 30 09:43:46 2023
XGID=-AB-b-D----BbD---bBcbbb---:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X O X | | 2 |
| O X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33
This is another position where one might miss the candidate play
13/10(4) for psychological reasons. X is still slightly behind in
the pip count and so is interested in maintaining contact. But
something like 13/10(2) 11/8(2) leaves him totally stripped in a
position where he has a much weaker board. 13/10(4) gives him
another good blocking point while retaining spares to play with.
1. Rollout¹ 13/10(4) eq:+0.054
Player: 46.02% (G:7.42% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 53.98% (G:11.38% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.045..+0.063) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 18/15(2) 13/10(2) eq:-0.003 (-0.057)
Player: 44.76% (G:4.46% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 55.24% (G:11.77% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.011..+0.004) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 11/5(2) eq:-0.006 (-0.060)
Player: 44.03% (G:7.10% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 55.97% (G:12.43% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.014..+0.002) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 11/8(2) eq:-0.039 (-0.093)
Player: 44.29% (G:7.02% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 55.71% (G:16.80% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.047..-0.031) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Fri Nov 10 10:09:12 2023
XGID=-A--CbCBB-B-b---acBcbb----:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
BlueDice@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 10 07:39:15 2023
On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 3:09:15 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-A--CbCBB-B-b---acBcbb----:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
---
Tim Chow
10/7 10/8
We have a decent race lead and opp has a stronger board. A safe play is called for.
The hitting play leaves 12 return shots - too many.
We can distribute our checkers for added flexibility and clear what may become the awkward to clear 10 point soon with 10/7 10/8.
--
BD
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
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From
BlueDice@21:1/5 to
BlueDice on Fri Nov 10 07:42:14 2023
On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 3:39:17 PM UTC, BlueDice wrote:
On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 3:09:15 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-A--CbCBB-B-b---acBcbb----:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
---
Tim Chow
10/7 10/8
We have a decent race lead and opp has a stronger board. A safe play is called for.
The hitting play leaves 12 return shots - too many.
We can distribute our checkers for added flexibility and clear what may become the awkward to clear 10 point soon with 10/7 10/8.
--
BD
Edit: 11 return shots
--
BD
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From
Stick Rice@21:1/5 to
BlueDice on Fri Nov 10 14:05:17 2023
On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 10:42:16 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 3:39:17 PM UTC, BlueDice wrote:
On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 3:09:15 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-A--CbCBB-B-b---acBcbb----:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
---
Tim Chow
10/7 10/8
We have a decent race lead and opp has a stronger board. A safe play is called for.
The hitting play leaves 12 return shots - too many.
We can distribute our checkers for added flexibility and clear what may become the awkward to clear 10 point soon with 10/7 10/8.
--
BD
Edit: 11 return shots
--
BD
What hitting play are you making that leaves roughly that amount of return shots? I think you're miscounting.
Stick
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-
From
ah....Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 10 17:21:30 2023
On 11/10/2023 10:09 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-A--CbCBB-B-b---acBcbb----:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
"Don't volunteer a shot in a holding game."
Does that apply here? Hitting and covering the ace is tempting, but
seems to leave too many return shots. X is ahead in the race, so no need
for heroics. Either clear the eight point or make the ace followed by
4/2. I prefer to keep the ace so I'll go with the latter, despite the
fact that it strips all my points.
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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-
From
ah....Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 10 17:25:13 2023
On 11/10/2023 10:09 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-A--CbCBB-B-b---acBcbb----:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
Since we're playing legal moves here, I'll withdraw my previous play.
Hitting and covering is still tempting, but with the race lead seems to
leave too many shots.
Clearing the ten looks sound, but I'll still go with covering the ace
point. At least all my points won't be stripped.
6/1,
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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-
From
BlueDice@21:1/5 to
Stick Rice on Sat Nov 11 00:32:29 2023
On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 10:05:19 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 10:42:16 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 3:39:17 PM UTC, BlueDice wrote:
On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 3:09:15 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-A--CbCBB-B-b---acBcbb----:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
---
Tim Chow
10/7 10/8
We have a decent race lead and opp has a stronger board. A safe play is called for.
The hitting play leaves 12 return shots - too many.
We can distribute our checkers for added flexibility and clear what may become the awkward to clear 10 point soon with 10/7 10/8.
--
BD
Edit: 11 return shots
--
BD
What hitting play are you making that leaves roughly that amount of return shots? I think you're miscounting.
Stick
Yes, bad hair day, the hitting play, 18/16* 4/1 leaves 20 shots.
--
BD
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Mon Nov 13 08:28:23 2023
XGID=-A--CbCBB-B-b---acBcbb----:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
An obvious candidate play is to hit and cover with 18/16* 4/1. But this
play gives O a ton of return shots, since O's entering and hitting
numbers are perfectly diversified (2,3,5 to enter and 1,4,6 to hit, not
to mention the doublets 22 and 33). According to the rollout, 18/16* 4/1
is a whopper with cheese. Given this verdict, it may be surprising how
much difference it makes if we weaken O's board slightly; see the
variant below.
1. Rollout¹ 10/8 10/7 eq:+0.235
Player: 58.11% (G:6.22% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 41.89% (G:6.14% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.226..+0.244) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 6/3 4/2 eq:+0.208 (-0.027)
Player: 56.74% (G:6.73% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 43.26% (G:7.29% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.197..+0.218) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 4/2 4/1 eq:+0.196 (-0.039)
Player: 56.46% (G:6.23% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 43.54% (G:7.27% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.186..+0.205) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:+0.159 (-0.076)
Player: 55.56% (G:6.36% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 44.44% (G:8.12% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.149..+0.169) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 18/16* 4/1 eq:+0.084 (-0.151)
Player: 53.52% (G:11.27% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 46.48% (G:12.09% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.069..+0.099) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-A--CbCBB-B-b---acBcb-b---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
1. Rollout¹ 18/16* 4/1 eq:+0.257
Player: 57.84% (G:12.28% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 42.16% (G:11.00% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.250..+0.263) - [97.3%]
2. Rollout¹ 10/8 10/7 eq:+0.249 (-0.008)
Player: 58.26% (G:6.24% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 41.74% (G:5.78% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.243..+0.254) - [2.7%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
ah....Clem on Mon Nov 13 09:21:59 2023
On 11/10/2023 5:21 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
"Don't volunteer a shot in a holding game."
I think this is a useful adage, but it's an interesting question
how to apply it here. If it's bad to volunteer a shot, then did
the opponent make a mistake by giving us a shot? If so, then
should we punish that mistake by hitting? And if we're not
supposed to hit, then maybe it's not such a bad thing to leave
a shot, if the opponent has to leave too many return shots when
hitting it.
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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