• How to contain

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Dec 29 08:45:50 2021
    XGID=-BABaBBB--B-----bb-bbdB-b-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X O X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 110 O: 95 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 41

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 31 10:02:54 2021
    XGID=-BABaBBB--B-----bb-bbdB-b-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X O X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 110 O: 95 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 41

    It goes against the grain to volunteer a direct shot here. Why
    allow O to escape with tempo with a 3? XG evidently judges the
    improvement in board strength to be worth the risk. Even if O
    escapes her straggler, X may hit a shot later on, and if so, the
    five-point board will come in handy.

    1. Rollout¹ 7/2 eq:-0.242
    Player: 34.24% (G:4.73% B:0.09%)
    Opponent: 65.76% (G:9.29% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.247..-0.236) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/3 eq:-0.311 (-0.069)
    Player: 31.13% (G:3.40% B:0.07%)
    Opponent: 68.87% (G:7.11% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.316..-0.306) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/2 eq:-0.317 (-0.075)
    Player: 30.98% (G:3.03% B:0.07%)
    Opponent: 69.02% (G:7.12% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.322..-0.311) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Jan 1 16:25:08 2022
    On Friday, December 31, 2021 at 10:02:58 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BABaBBB--B-----bb-bbdB-b-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | O O | | O O O X O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X O X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 110 O: 95 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 41
    It goes against the grain to volunteer a direct shot here. Why
    allow O to escape with tempo with a 3? XG evidently judges the
    improvement in board strength to be worth the risk. Even if O
    escapes her straggler, X may hit a shot later on, and if so, the
    five-point board will come in handy.

    1. Rollout¹ 7/2 eq:-0.242
    Player: 34.24% (G:4.73% B:0.09%)
    Opponent: 65.76% (G:9.29% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.247..-0.236) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/3 eq:-0.311 (-0.069)
    Player: 31.13% (G:3.40% B:0.07%)
    Opponent: 68.87% (G:7.11% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.316..-0.306) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/2 eq:-0.317 (-0.075)
    Player: 30.98% (G:3.03% B:0.07%)
    Opponent: 69.02% (G:7.12% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.322..-0.311) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    It's about the potential shots now when the opponent doesn't escape/doesn't fully escape. Later on we could make the 5pt board easily anyway.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)