• Annoying roll

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Dec 28 21:02:45 2021
    XGID=aBB-BBBAAA--b-b-bc-eB-----:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O X | +---+
    | O O O | | O X | | 2 |
    | O | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 30 23:08:33 2021
    XGID=aBB-BBBAAA--b-b-bc-eB-----:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O X | +---+
    | O O O | | O X | | 2 |
    | O | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 63

    X has a nice blitz going, but has thrown an awkward roll; it's more
    pips than he wants to have to play, given that he can neither move his
    back checkers nor close his board with this roll.

    I blundered badly by deciding to kill a checker rather than leave a
    shot, but even after you decide to play 9/3, there's still the question
    of how to play the 3. Switching points with 6/3 can sometimes be the
    right idea, but not here when it actually makes closing the board
    harder. I think the reason 8/5 comes out ahead of 7/4 is that X has
    good 5's and no 4's on the other side of the board.

    1. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 eq:+0.450
    Player: 64.35% (G:38.27% B:0.16%)
    Opponent: 35.65% (G:5.76% B:0.23%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.437..+0.462) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 9/3 7/4 eq:+0.391 (-0.059)
    Player: 62.73% (G:36.52% B:0.14%)
    Opponent: 37.27% (G:6.07% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.378..+0.403) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 9/3 6/3 eq:+0.345 (-0.105)
    Player: 61.63% (G:33.56% B:0.06%)
    Opponent: 38.37% (G:5.61% B:0.23%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.335..+0.354) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/1 eq:+0.282 (-0.168)
    Player: 60.85% (G:30.83% B:0.10%)
    Opponent: 39.15% (G:6.75% B:0.27%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.270..+0.294) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 9/6 8/2 eq:+0.261 (-0.188)
    Player: 60.17% (G:30.72% B:0.09%)
    Opponent: 39.83% (G:7.15% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.250..+0.272) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)