I played bar/21(3) 6/2 and felt that my thinking was good.
Obviously I don't want to be hit, have many dances on the bar,
while my opponent enters and gammons.
My plan is to avoid being hit for now, and hope to get a later hit,
while I've built up my board.
So why is my play a worse idea than trying to buy a pair of
tennis shoes at a pharmacy?

Paul


XGID=---a--EaC---aD-a-a-bb-bbbC:1:1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | X | |
| X | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X | | 2 |
| O X O | | X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 181 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

1. XG Roller+ Bar/21(2) Bar/17* eq:-0.288
Player: 38.34% (G:7.84% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 61.66% (G:26.78% B:0.31%)

2. XG Roller+ Bar/21(3) 6/2 eq:-0.423 (-0.135)
Player: 32.28% (G:5.26% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 67.72% (G:23.52% B:0.29%)

3. 2-ply Bar/21(3) 8/4 eq:-0.639 (-0.351)
Player: 28.51% (G:4.30% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 71.49% (G:35.05% B:0.41%)

4. 1-ply Bar/21(3) 13/9 eq:-0.764 (-0.476)
Player: 26.64% (G:4.14% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 73.36% (G:42.50% B:0.88%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/28/2021 11:07 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

I played bar/21(3) 6/2 and felt that my thinking was good.
Obviously I don't want to be hit, have many dances on the bar,
while my opponent enters and gammons.
My plan is to avoid being hit for now, and hope to get a later hit,
while I've built up my board.
So why is my play a worse idea than trying to buy a pair of
tennis shoes at a pharmacy?

If you play 6/2 and wait until you have a good board before
hitting, the chances are you're never going to hit, and you
run the risk of getting gammoned anyway. Given that you're
almost certainly going to have to take some risks at some
point, now is as good a time as any, when your opponent has
five blots strewn around the board.

---
Tim Chow

Paul

XGID=---a--EaC---aD-a-a-bb-bbbC:1:1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | X | |
| X | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X | | 2 |
| O X O | | X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 181 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

1. XG Roller+ Bar/21(2) Bar/17* eq:-0.288
Player: 38.34% (G:7.84% B:0.34%)

On Wednesday, December 29, 2021 at 1:52:23 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On 12/28/2021 11:07 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

I played bar/21(3) 6/2 and felt that my thinking was good.
Obviously I don't want to be hit, have many dances on the bar,
while my opponent enters and gammons.
My plan is to avoid being hit for now, and hope to get a later hit,
while I've built up my board.
So why is my play a worse idea than trying to buy a pair of
tennis shoes at a pharmacy?

If you play 6/2 and wait until you have a good board before
hitting, the chances are you're never going to hit, and you
run the risk of getting gammoned anyway. Given that you're
almost certainly going to have to take some risks at some
point, now is as good a time as any, when your opponent has
five blots strewn around the board.

---
Tim Chow

Paul

XGID=---a--EaC---aD-a-a-bb-bbbC:1:1:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | X | |
| X | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X | | 2 |
| O X O | | X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 181 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

1. XG Roller+ Bar/21(2) Bar/17* eq:-0.288
Player: 38.34% (G:7.84% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 61.66% (G:26.78% B:0.31%)

2. XG Roller+ Bar/21(3) 6/2 eq:-0.423 (-0.135)
Player: 32.28% (G:5.26% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 67.72% (G:23.52% B:0.29%)

3. 2-ply Bar/21(3) 8/4 eq:-0.639 (-0.351)
Player: 28.51% (G:4.30% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 71.49% (G:35.05% B:0.41%)

4. 1-ply Bar/21(3) 13/9 eq:-0.764 (-0.476)
Player: 26.64% (G:4.14% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 73.36% (G:42.50% B:0.88%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Thanks. Despite the whoppitudiness of my play,
it does reduce the proportion of the opponent's wins that are gammons
from 43% to 35%, so you can probably variantize the idea to find somewhat similar
scenarios where this type of play is correct.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/29/2021 7:32 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Thanks. Despite the whoppitudiness of my play,
it does reduce the proportion of the opponent's wins that are gammons
from 43% to 35%, so you can probably variantize the idea to find somewhat similar
scenarios where this type of play is correct.

It would require a pretty big change in the position.

There are a couple of positions of this genre in Robertie's
501 book, in the chapter on post-blitz turnaround games.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)