XGID=-BC-BBBbBa---B-----bbccb--:2:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O | | 4 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 80 O: 99 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 64
According to XG, despite O's fearsome board, not only is it not
too risky to hit, it's best to slot the 3pt and give O a direct
shot from the bar.
The location of the cube is relevant here. Suppose that X had
cube access. Then XG says that X would have had a double before
the roll. But suppose X did not double. Then 13/9* 8/2 would
already lose X's market by a mile if O were to dance, so 9/3
would be overkill. But with O owning the cube, 9/3 wins a lot
more extra gammons for X than it loses.
1. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/3 eq:+0.338
Player: 64.50% (G:24.16% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 35.50% (G:12.21% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.335..+0.342) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 8/2 eq:+0.219 (-0.120)
Player: 63.49% (G:16.29% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 36.51% (G:14.00% B:0.96%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.214..+0.223) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.153 (-0.186)
Player: 61.88% (G:2.21% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 38.12% (G:2.19% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.148..+0.157) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
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