From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Tue Dec 28 21:00:12 2021
XGID=aaaBb-BCC-A-bAa--AabbbA-A-:2:-1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O O X X | +---+
| | | O O O | | 4 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X X | | X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 188 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 61
At first it seemed to me that 8/2*/1*, preventing O from making a second
anchor and putting two more checkers on the bar, was the best way to
minimize O's winning chances. But even if O makes a second anchor, her backgame chances are not good. So eventually I decided to play 24/18*
7/6. However, XG strongly prefers 24/18*/17. I guess that even when
O is twice up, 24/18* 7/6 gives O a few super-joker returns, and also
leaves me with a lot of blots to clean up even if O enters without
hitting.
1. Rollout¹ 24/18* 18/17 eq:+0.193
Player: 57.65% (G:29.45% B:2.73%)
Opponent: 42.35% (G:9.47% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.178..+0.209) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 2/1* eq:+0.116 (-0.077)
Player: 54.43% (G:34.73% B:3.50%)
Opponent: 45.57% (G:15.20% B:1.35%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.099..+0.133) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/18* 7/6 eq:+0.109 (-0.084)
Player: 54.78% (G:29.84% B:3.31%)
Opponent: 45.22% (G:11.61% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.094..+0.124) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 24/18* 10/9 eq:+0.079 (-0.115)
Player: 54.17% (G:28.77% B:3.06%)
Opponent: 45.83% (G:12.08% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.062..+0.095) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 24/18* 17/16 eq:+0.066 (-0.127)
Player: 54.19% (G:27.96% B:2.85%)
Opponent: 45.81% (G:11.67% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.051..+0.081) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)