• Tim would make his opponent's 5 point here

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Sat Dec 25 08:01:11 2021
    I was 50/50 between blitzing and anchoring in the below position.
    Obviously, I got the coin toss wrong.
    Could someone (not necessarily Tim) explain why the 4 point blitz
    is the wrong plan here?

    Thank you,

    Paul

    XGID=-aaB--DBB---cCa--bbc-b--B-:0:0:1:44:2:14:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:2 O:14. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 153 X-O: 2-14
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    1. XG Roller+ 24/20(2) 8/4(2) eq:+0.613
    Player: 62.98% (G:21.10% B:0.53%)
    Opponent: 37.02% (G:5.73% B:0.20%)

    2. XG Roller+ 8/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq:+0.471 (-0.141)
    Player: 55.91% (G:29.24% B:1.64%)
    Opponent: 44.09% (G:11.33% B:0.63%)

    3. 4-ply 24/20(2) 6/2*(2) eq:+0.627 (+0.014)
    Player: 62.16% (G:24.87% B:1.07%)
    Opponent: 37.84% (G:7.00% B:0.28%)

    4. 4-ply 24/16(2) eq:+0.574 (-0.039)
    Player: 65.23% (G:15.49% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 34.77% (G:7.00% B:0.19%)

    5. 2-ply 24/20(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.436 (-0.176)
    Player: 59.38% (G:18.95% B:0.86%)
    Opponent: 40.62% (G:6.84% B:0.22%)


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Tim Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat Dec 25 16:10:59 2021
    On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 11:01:12 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I was 50/50 between blitzing and anchoring in the below position.
    Obviously, I got the coin toss wrong.
    Could someone (not necessarily Tim) explain why the 4 point blitz
    is the wrong plan here?

    I'm traveling right now and don't have access to XG. But I see
    you didn't do an XGR++ evaluation of 24/20(2) 6/2*(2).
    Seems like you should do that before trying to come up with
    an "explanation." In any case, let's suppose you're committed
    to 6/2*(2). Then the question is, with your two remaining 4's,
    do you play 24/20(2) or 8/4(2)? There's an adage I learned from
    Nack Ballard, which is that either 5pt beats either 4pt. It doesn't
    always hold, but in this position, your opponent's best chance for
    counterplay is to prime your back checkers, and advancing your
    back checkers nips that plan in the bud. If you blitz, even if it
    works, you still have work to do extricating your back checkers.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Dec 28 20:48:13 2021
    FWIW, below are what XGR++ thinks are the top 5 plays.


    XGID=-aaB--DBB---cCa--bbc-b--B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    1. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 6/2*(2) eq:+0.626
    Player: 62.20% (G:24.25% B:1.08%)
    Opponent: 37.80% (G:6.91% B:0.30%)

    2. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 8/4(2) eq:+0.610 (-0.017)
    Player: 62.77% (G:21.33% B:0.55%)
    Opponent: 37.23% (G:6.04% B:0.23%)

    3. XG Roller++ 24/16(2) eq:+0.556 (-0.070)
    Player: 64.78% (G:15.20% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 35.22% (G:7.36% B:0.23%)

    4. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.441 (-0.186)
    Player: 59.35% (G:19.05% B:0.69%)
    Opponent: 40.65% (G:7.08% B:0.29%)

    5. XG Roller++ 8/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq:+0.435 (-0.191)
    Player: 55.28% (G:29.04% B:1.66%)
    Opponent: 44.72% (G:11.67% B:0.65%)


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)