On Monday, December 27, 2021 at 11:21:11 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-a----EaCAA-cC---b-ccbA-A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21
PoH is always very tempting, especially if it's a good point.
Plus, it's often a huge blunder *not* to PoH when PoH is an
option. Here, according to XG, the main alternative play of
24/22 10/9 is close at DMP but loses whole lot more gammons.
1. Rollout¹ 24/22 10/9 eq:-0.472
Player: 37.25% (G:6.84% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 62.75% (G:11.50% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.483..-0.461) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/7* eq:-0.616 (-0.144)
Player: 36.03% (G:8.25% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 63.97% (G:24.40% B:1.24%)
Confidence: ±0.026 (-0.641..-0.590) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 9/7* 8/7 eq:-0.631 (-0.159)
Player: 36.51% (G:9.33% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 63.49% (G:27.96% B:1.44%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.651..-0.611) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
The difference at dmp is ~.020 or 1%.
Stick
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