XGID=-b---BCBCBA-b---aaababba-B:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, December 24, 2021 at 5:36:51 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-b---BCBCBA-b---aaababba-B:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | | I
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I see this as a pass (and not TG) but it's horrendously complicated,
and I'm not providing any attempts at analysis.

How surprised would I be to be wrong? About as surprised as I'd be to
see Man City draw 1-1 with Chelsea.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-b---BCBCBA-b---aaababba-B:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I agree with Paul that accurate analysis of this type of position
OTB is extremely difficult. One thing I look for, when contemplating
doubling from the bar, is whether I have trapped one or more of my
opponent's checkers behind a solid five-prime. On its own, that is
not a decisive consideration, but I've found that it's often a sign that
I should at least be seriously thinking about doubling. Another thing
of course is whether I'm threatening to hit a checker. In this position
I have a double shot from the bar.

On the other hand, I have two checkers on the bar, and if I dance,
the game could turn around in the blink of an eye, and I could get
gammoned myself.

According to the rollout, this is a clear ND/T. That surprised me,
since I thought the double was clear. Part of what I failed to think
about OTB was that if enter with one checker on the 2pt, hitting,
that often does *not* lose my market. For example, if O enters
and covers her 5pt, she can generally take. So there are fewer
market losers than I expected, and of course if X rolls poorly then
he will deeply regret doubling.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 61.23% (G:23.64% B:3.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.77% (G:18.09% B:0.95%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.90% (G:23.46% B:3.53%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.10% (G:18.18% B:0.96%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.406
Double/Take: +0.299 (-0.108)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.594)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.3%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.388..+0.425)
Confidence Double: ± 0.029 (+0.270..+0.328)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 3:48:06 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-b---BCBCBA-b---aaababba-B:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
I agree with Paul that accurate analysis of this type of position
OTB is extremely difficult. One thing I look for, when contemplating doubling from the bar, is whether I have trapped one or more of my opponent's checkers behind a solid five-prime. On its own, that is
not a decisive consideration, but I've found that it's often a sign that
I should at least be seriously thinking about doubling. Another thing
of course is whether I'm threatening to hit a checker. In this position
I have a double shot from the bar.

On the other hand, I have two checkers on the bar, and if I dance,
the game could turn around in the blink of an eye, and I could get
gammoned myself.

According to the rollout, this is a clear ND/T. That surprised me,
since I thought the double was clear. Part of what I failed to think
about OTB was that if enter with one checker on the 2pt, hitting,
that often does *not* lose my market. For example, if O enters
and covers her 5pt, she can generally take. So there are fewer
market losers than I expected, and of course if X rolls poorly then
he will deeply regret doubling.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 61.23% (G:23.64% B:3.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.77% (G:18.09% B:0.95%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.90% (G:23.46% B:3.53%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.10% (G:18.18% B:0.96%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.406
Double/Take: +0.299 (-0.108)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.594)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.3%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.388..+0.425)
Confidence Double: ± 0.029 (+0.270..+0.328)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

The size of the error for doubling is ~halved if we turn on Jacoby.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-ABBCBBA--Aab----abba-bbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 87 O: 91 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-ABBCBBA--Aab----abba-bbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 87 O: 91 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I thought I was barely a favorite here, and that if I danced I would
be in big trouble, so I did not seriously consider doubling OTB. But
any hit is devastating and gammonish, and even if I dance the game
isn't over yet.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 53.92% (G:29.92% B:0.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.08% (G:3.63% B:0.14%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.04% (G:30.24% B:0.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.96% (G:3.92% B:0.17%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.205 (-0.124)
Double/Take: +0.329
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.671)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.197..+0.213)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.316..+0.342)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----bCDCBB--------a-bcaccA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X |
| X X X | | X X O |
| X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 83 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/10/2022 9:03 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=----bCDCBB--------a-bcaccA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2   O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+  |                O |   |    O  O  O  O  O |  |                  |   |    O  O     O  O |  |                  |   |       O     O  O |  |                  |   |                  |
 |                  | X |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                X |   | X  X             |  |          X  X  X |   | X  X  O          |  |          X  X  X |   | X  X  O          |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 119  O: 83 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

A hit is a market loser and I count 13. A dance is almost as good as
long as O doesn't roll a joker like 66, 63, or 61. So, O'Hagen's law
says ship it.

16 dancing numbers for Xx and over 20 covers for O says take.

D/T.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----bCDCBB--------a-bcaccA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X |
| X X X | | X X O |
| X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 83 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I thought this was a pass. O has two checkers behind X's five-prime,
and is already crunching her board. Even if she doesn't get hit right
away, there's a good chance that her forward position will continue to deteriorate.

However, XG says it's a clear take. Evidently, O's position has more resilience than I gave it credit for. For example, there's a decent
chance that I will dance several times against her four- or five-point
board while she escapes with sixes. Or even if I come in, I could get
hit again. At the moment, O's board is still rather strong and she does
have a significant lead in the pip count, which are assets that I
undervalued.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 70.23% (G:14.71% B:0.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.77% (G:3.88% B:0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.54% (G:14.83% B:0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.46% (G:3.96% B:0.02%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.790 (-0.109)
Double/Take: +0.899
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.101)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.781..+0.800)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.885..+0.914)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-bBBBBC-----AB---a-db-bbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:X O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 102 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 4:28:21 PM UTC+1, ah...Clem wrote:

XGID=-bBBBBC-----AB---a-db-bbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:X O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 102 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Easy take, not sure about the double.
The sequences where we dance and the opponent springs a 6 are very good for the opponent, who
would then be targeting a blot.
I think that if the opponent doesn't roll a 6, we can lose our market even if we dance.

D/T. I'm not sure. And I think it's a great problem.
My second choice might be ND/T but D/P wouldn't amaze me.
TG/P and TG/T (possible in a match) are the only ones I would rule out.
Because D/P wouldn't amaze me, and I'm a fairly good player by normal standards,
your mantra "double because they might pass even though it's ND/T" might make sense
_in this particular position_ but I wouldn't apply it so universally as you do.

When I say D/T, I'm saying it because that's my verdict about optimal theoretical play.
I don't know though.


Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/29/2022 11:28 AM, ah...Clem wrote:

XGID=-bBBBBC-----AB---a-db-bbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:X O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 102 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I'm not sure O can take this. Certainly if X dances and O rolls
an immediate 6 then X is in trouble. But if O doesn't roll a 6
soon then her position is going to deteriorate rapidly. Though
both players have five-point boards, X's board is a much bigger
threat; if, in the ensuing play, X gets hit, it's bad but maybe
not fatal because of O's open 4pt, but if O gets hit then she's
in really big trouble. I'm going to go with D/P.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

This one is all about timing. X is stuck on the bar, O is stuck behind a
solid five prime. X needs a four, O needs a six, and since neither are probable, this situation can go on for several rolls, which it did otb.

As long as both players are stuck, X's position remains static, while
O's position deteriorates with each sequence. So, the question is how
far to let it deteriorate before shipping the cube?

This position is when the cube became ripe. X still has about 35% GWC
but X has enough market losers to ship it.

The variants below are the previous cube decision (which was ND) and the
next two. You can see it go from ND to D/T to D/P. I waited until it
was D/P and missed three cubes, although this first one was not too costly.

Note that if O leaps and X dances (twice) it's a cash for O.


XGID=-bBBBBC-----AB---a-db-bbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 102 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.51% (G:18.01% B:0.86%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.49% (G:15.15% B:0.18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.77% (G:17.98% B:0.94%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.23% (G:14.94% B:0.22%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.345, Double=+0.695

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.490 (-0.059)
Double/Take: +0.549
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.451)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.482..+0.498)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.536..+0.562)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



*////////////////////////////
* variant1, previous cube decision
*/////////////////////////////

Not a cube yet, but might be a good practical one since some will pass

XGID=-bBBBBC-----AB--ab-bb-bbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 107 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 61.02% (G:18.13% B:1.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.98% (G:18.55% B:0.22%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.229, Double=+0.427

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.318
Double/Take: +0.275 (-0.044)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.682)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


*///////////////////////////
* variant 2 - next roll
*///////////////////////////
Missing the cube here is a double whopper, but still a take

XGID=-bBBBBC-----AB---a-cb-bcbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 98 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 70.15% (G:18.51% B:0.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.85% (G:11.30% B:0.09%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.476, Double=+0.977

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.613 (-0.222)
Double/Take: +0.835
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.165)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

*/////////////////////////////////
* variant 3 and the following roll
*////////////////////////////////

We're in double/pass territory now

XGID=-bBBBBC-----AB-----cb-bdbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 92 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 76.57% (G:21.60% B:0.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.43% (G:7.18% B:0.05%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.673, Double=+1.409

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.775 (-0.225)
Double/Take: +1.290 (+0.290)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-b-CBCB-A-----------ccbCeA:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O X O |
| | | O O O X O |
| | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X O | | 4 |
| X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-b-CBCB-A-----------ccbCeA:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O X O |
| | | O O O X O |
| | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X O | | 4 |
| X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

O has just rolled an anti-joker, but I was surprised that the XG
rollout indicated a monster pass. O still has a four-point board,
and X is on the bar with 4 checkers back, not to mention a blot in
the outfield. But even with a favorable exchange---say X dances
and O rolls 62---XG says that O is barely an equity favorite (and
then only because of cube ownership).

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 73.87% (G:25.86% B:1.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.13% (G:11.35% B:0.24%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.01% (G:26.50% B:1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.99% (G:11.25% B:0.20%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.877 (-0.123)
Redouble/Take: +1.186 (+0.186)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.866..+0.888)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.169..+1.203)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aaCBCBB--B----aa-bbbbabA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/18/2023 8:00 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--aaCBCBB--B----aa-bbbbabA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |          O  O    |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
 |                  |   | O  O  O  O     O |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  | X |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X     X          |
 |    X        X  X |   | X  X  X          |
 |    X        X  X |   | X  X  X  O  O    |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 117  O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Five primes are very strong when the checker is not at the edge. If X
rolls a deuce, O is in real trouble and it looks like the market is
lost. If not, unless O rolls a six soon her board will deteriorate (and
sixes are duped), so I'm not seeing any really bad sequences. 11 market
losers is two more than O'Hagen requires, so ship it.

And I think O has to take. D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aaCBCBB--B----aa-bbbbabA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I got spooked into passing here as O, fearing that even if I weren't
hit, I could easily collapse while waiting to spring my back checker
that is not at the edge of the prime. But XG says it's an easy take.
See the variant to get a sense of what is required to get XG to pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 67.09% (G:21.61% B:2.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.91% (G:8.87% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.61% (G:21.11% B:2.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.39% (G:8.78% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.648 (-0.161)
Double/Take: +0.809
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.191)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.639..+0.658)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.795..+0.823)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aaCBCBB--B----a--bbbcabA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 71.79% (G:18.75% B:1.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.21% (G:6.65% B:0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.31% (G:18.94% B:1.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.69% (G:6.59% B:0.02%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.775 (-0.225)
Double/Take: +1.013 (+0.013)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.767..+0.783)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.999..+1.026)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---BbBBBC-B----------bdfaB:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| | X | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 75 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---BbBBBC-B----------bdfaB:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| | X | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 75 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Doubling with two on the bar is a rare occurrence, but O's position
is obviously terrible here. According to XG, it's a huge pass, which
I found surprising. Some judgment is needed to assess just how bad
O's board is (see variant).

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 75.54% (G:20.99% B:0.98%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.46% (G:5.79% B:0.03%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.88% (G:22.03% B:0.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.12% (G:5.75% B:0.03%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.949 (-0.051)
Redouble/Take: +1.291 (+0.291)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.943..+0.954)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.277..+1.305)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---BbBBBC-B----------dddaB:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | X | O O O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 72.49% (G:16.60% B:0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.51% (G:7.05% B:0.05%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.00% (G:16.90% B:0.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.00% (G:6.96% B:0.04%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.889 (-0.094)
Redouble/Take: +0.983
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.017)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.880..+0.898)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.969..+0.997)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BBaaBC-BC--a-----bc-dab-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BBaaBC-BC--a-----bc-dab-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I badly misjudged this position and took this cube. But O has too
many vulnerable blots, and loses a ton of gammons.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 71.08% (G:38.47% B:3.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.92% (G:6.26% B:0.18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.25% (G:39.50% B:4.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.75% (G:6.61% B:0.21%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.861 (-0.139)
Double/Take: +1.376 (+0.376)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.852..+0.870)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.362..+1.390)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-BBaaBC-BC--a-----bd-d-b-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 67.78% (G:28.34% B:1.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.22% (G:6.85% B:0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.84% (G:30.86% B:1.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.16% (G:7.50% B:0.26%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.686 (-0.297)
Double/Take: +0.983
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.017)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.676..+0.695)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.969..+0.996)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-BBa-BC-BCa-a-----bc-dab-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.25% (G:34.32% B:2.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.75% (G:7.40% B:0.21%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.31% (G:34.63% B:2.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.69% (G:7.33% B:0.19%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.638 (-0.328)
Double/Take: +0.967
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.033)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.629..+0.647)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+0.944..+0.990)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)