XGID=-a-AaBCBBA--cB---c-bcb--B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-AaBCBBA--cB---c-bcb--B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

It seemed natural to me to cover my blots and make a five-prime
with this roll. Hitting risks getting another checker sent back, and
O's offensive position is strong. However, X is a slight underdog
in this position. If O anchors on X's 4pt or makes her bar, then X
is in big trouble. More importantly, there's not that big an upside
to playing 13/9 6/3; X probably can't hold the prime very long and
will likely have to attack soon anyway if he can. If X attacks and it
works then the upside is huge; if he gets hit back, then he'll be in
trouble, but still has chances to hit back himself and end up on top.

1. Rollout¹ 8/4* 6/3 eq:-0.062
Player: 48.63% (G:18.15% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 51.37% (G:21.41% B:2.51%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.079..-0.045) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/3 7/4* eq:-0.128 (-0.066)
Player: 46.31% (G:19.39% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 53.69% (G:20.57% B:1.97%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.142..-0.114) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4* 7/4 eq:-0.217 (-0.155)
Player: 45.34% (G:18.33% B:0.84%)
Opponent: 54.66% (G:25.39% B:4.18%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.236..-0.199) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 9/5 6/3 eq:-0.254 (-0.192)
Player: 43.75% (G:14.45% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 56.25% (G:18.13% B:1.08%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.269..-0.239) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/3 eq:-0.282 (-0.220)
Player: 43.82% (G:14.36% B:0.89%)
Opponent: 56.18% (G:19.90% B:1.54%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.297..-0.267) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-BB-EAA---bB-c-c-cBab---:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-BB-EAA---bB-c-c-cBab---:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

Sometimes you will heard the adage, "Attack one checker, prime two
checkers." That adage would suggest 7/1*, but the rollout below says
7/1* is a whopper with cheese. It's a little too easy for O to escape
her straggler if X plays 7/1*, and it risks losing more pips in a
fairly close race. Making the bar creates a permanent asset.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.008
Player: 54.74% (G:15.57% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 45.26% (G:6.43% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (0.000..+0.015) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/3 6/4 eq:-0.070 (-0.077)
Player: 52.04% (G:14.17% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 47.96% (G:6.76% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.077..-0.062) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/1* eq:-0.121 (-0.129)
Player: 49.97% (G:16.20% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 50.03% (G:7.97% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.130..-0.112) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-aBBBAB---bC--acbcb-A-B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-aBBBAB---bC--acbcb-A-B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

Here I reasoned that since I was behind in the pip count, priming
made more sense than attacking. If I hit, then even if I'm not
hit back right away, it's hard to sustain an attack when I have
three checkers behind O's prime.

However, XG strongly favors the (double) hit. It is not so much
that X expects to carry out a successful blitz, as X is hitting
for tempo. There's a blot on O's 9pt that X would like to hit.
If X gives O free rein to use her whole roll, she has many rolls
that significantly improve her position by improving her prime
or escaping with a 6.

I have rolled out two variants in which XG thinks the decision is
much closer.

1. Rollout¹ 7/3* 3/1* eq:-0.023
Player: 48.50% (G:19.92% B:1.01%)
Opponent: 51.50% (G:17.45% B:1.32%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.031..-0.014) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/22 7/3* eq:-0.093 (-0.070)
Player: 47.27% (G:17.35% B:1.07%)
Opponent: 52.73% (G:17.53% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.102..-0.083) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-0.162 (-0.139)
Player: 46.59% (G:14.14% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 53.41% (G:18.88% B:1.48%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.171..-0.152) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-a-aBBBAB---bC-a-cbcb-A-B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 7/3* eq:-0.102
Player: 47.00% (G:16.71% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 53.00% (G:17.33% B:1.02%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.111..-0.093) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/3* 3/1* eq:-0.121 (-0.020)
Player: 46.49% (G:18.57% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 53.51% (G:18.65% B:1.46%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.131..-0.112) - [0.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-0.123 (-0.021)
Player: 47.63% (G:14.57% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 52.37% (G:18.55% B:1.50%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.132..-0.114) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-a-aBBBAB---bC--acbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 7/3* 3/1* eq:+0.090
Player: 50.71% (G:21.11% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 49.29% (G:15.53% B:0.88%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.081..+0.099) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.066 (-0.024)
Player: 51.26% (G:15.73% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 48.74% (G:13.97% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.057..+0.074) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---AA--acBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---AA--acBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

I think this one is difficult. 8/2* 6/2 gains a tempo to pick up
O's second blot, and it is XG's play at gammon go. But the other
plan, of making the 8pt and getting ready to make the 5pt next, is
also attractive. XG favors 15/11 14/8, but see the variant below
where it narrowly prefers 8/2* 6/2.

1. Rollout¹ 15/11 14/8 eq:+0.692
Player: 68.99% (G:6.22% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 31.01% (G:11.42% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.681..+0.703) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.611 (-0.081)
Player: 66.19% (G:10.50% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 33.81% (G:13.78% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.602..+0.621) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Gammon go
---------

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---AA--acBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:1:1:2:10

Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 70 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.561
Player: 65.71% (G:12.36% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 34.29% (G:18.77% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.557..+0.566) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/11 14/8 eq:+0.520 (-0.041)
Player: 68.39% (G:7.61% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 31.61% (G:15.91% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.515..+0.525) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---A--AacBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.621
Player: 66.45% (G:10.51% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 33.55% (G:13.86% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.611..+0.631) - [99.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 17/13 14/8 eq:+0.601 (-0.020)
Player: 67.65% (G:6.56% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 32.35% (G:10.96% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.591..+0.611) - [0.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, October 21, 2022 at 8:55:37 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---AA--acBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
I think this one is difficult. 8/2* 6/2 gains a tempo to pick up
O's second blot, and it is XG's play at gammon go. But the other
plan, of making the 8pt and getting ready to make the 5pt next, is
also attractive. XG favors 15/11 14/8, but see the variant below
where it narrowly prefers 8/2* 6/2.

1. Rollout¹ 15/11 14/8 eq:+0.692
Player: 68.99% (G:6.22% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 31.01% (G:11.42% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.681..+0.703) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.611 (-0.081)
Player: 66.19% (G:10.50% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 33.81% (G:13.78% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.602..+0.621) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Gammon go
---------

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---AA--acBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:1:1:2:10

Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 70 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.561
Player: 65.71% (G:12.36% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 34.29% (G:18.77% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.557..+0.566) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/11 14/8 eq:+0.520 (-0.041)
Player: 68.39% (G:7.61% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 31.61% (G:15.91% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.515..+0.525) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aBB-CBA-A---A--AacBbbbd-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.621
Player: 66.45% (G:10.51% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 33.55% (G:13.86% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.611..+0.631) - [99.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 17/13 14/8 eq:+0.601 (-0.020)
Player: 67.65% (G:6.56% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 32.35% (G:10.96% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.591..+0.611) - [0.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

XG isn't preparing to make the 5pt next, XG is preparing to send over a wildly efficient cube (some takes, some passes) on all but six of the opponent's upcoming rolls.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)