On Friday, December 24, 2021 at 12:34:47 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-B-Ca-B-Ca--dC---b-cbbA-A-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O O X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62
X is ahead in the race and if he anchors, then his 6 is a little
awkward. Nevertheless, the XG rollout indicates that anything
besides 24/22 8/2 is a whopper or worse. This is an example
of the adage, "When defending, make defensive plays." X is an
underdog here and O has some serious attacking potential, so
X can't afford to be leaving blots around for O to hit.
1. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/2 eq:-0.203
Player: 36.12% (G:9.41% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 63.88% (G:13.82% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.211..-0.195) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 13/7 eq:-0.294 (-0.091)
Player: 32.67% (G:8.11% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 67.33% (G:13.44% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.302..-0.285) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 second
3. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/6 eq:-0.370 (-0.167)
Player: 31.87% (G:10.16% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 68.13% (G:21.35% B:0.98%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.380..-0.361) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:-0.382 (-0.179)
Player: 32.95% (G:11.90% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 67.05% (G:27.18% B:0.92%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.392..-0.372) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/6 eq:-0.402 (-0.200)
Player: 32.22% (G:12.16% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 67.78% (G:27.46% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.411..-0.394) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
Again with the 'whopper' lol
Stick
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