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  • Too risky to hit?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Dec 20 23:49:02 2021
    XGID=---bBCE------Ba--dbccB-A--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X O |
    | | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Dec 22 23:11:38 2021
    XGID=---bBCE------Ba--dbccB-A--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X O |
    | | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    XG 3-ply plays 21/14*, but the rollout below deems it a whopper.

    1. Rollout¹ 23/16 eq:-0.013
    Player: 48.54% (G:10.46% B:0.33%)
    Opponent: 51.46% (G:9.09% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.023..-0.003) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.105 (-0.092)
    Player: 47.32% (G:14.66% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 52.68% (G:15.85% B:0.90%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.119..-0.091) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Jan 1 16:01:50 2022
    On Wednesday, December 22, 2021 at 11:11:42 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=---bBCE------Ba--dbccB-A--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X O |
    | | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52
    XG 3-ply plays 21/14*, but the rollout below deems it a whopper.

    1. Rollout¹ 23/16 eq:-0.013
    Player: 48.54% (G:10.46% B:0.33%)
    Opponent: 51.46% (G:9.09% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.023..-0.003) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.105 (-0.092)
    Player: 47.32% (G:14.66% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 52.68% (G:15.85% B:0.90%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.119..-0.091) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    .092 is not a whopper, just a blunder.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Sat Jan 1 20:37:35 2022
    On 1/1/2022 7:01 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Wednesday, December 22, 2021 at 11:11:42 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.105 (-0.092)
    Player: 47.32% (G:14.66% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 52.68% (G:15.85% B:0.90%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.119..-0.091) - [0.0%]
    [...]
    .092 is not a whopper, just a blunder.

    But it's not .092. It's .092 ± 0.014.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Jan 2 21:10:02 2022
    On Saturday, January 1, 2022 at 8:37:38 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 1/1/2022 7:01 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Wednesday, December 22, 2021 at 11:11:42 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.105 (-0.092)
    Player: 47.32% (G:14.66% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 52.68% (G:15.85% B:0.90%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.119..-0.091) - [0.0%]
    [...]
    .092 is not a whopper, just a blunder.
    But it's not .092. It's .092 ± 0.014.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I can only pray this is a joke because if this is an actual attempt at an excuse of how your usage of whopper was legitimate it would be the saddest thing I've ever seen you post. And given your follow up on the other post I really fear this isn't a
    joke.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Mon Jan 3 22:53:23 2022
    On 1/3/2022 12:10 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
    I can only pray this is a joke because if this is an actual attempt at an excuse of how your usage of whopper was legitimate it would be the saddest thing I've ever seen you post. And given your follow up on the other post I really fear this isn't a
    joke.

    It's not a joke. Try not to cry.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 3 23:08:49 2022
    On 1/3/2022 10:53 PM, I wrote:
    On 1/3/2022 12:10 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
    I can only pray this is a joke because if this is an actual attempt at
    an excuse of how your usage of whopper was legitimate it would be the
    saddest thing I've ever seen you post.  And given your follow up on
    the other post I really fear this isn't a joke.

    It's not a joke.  Try not to cry.

    It just occurred to me that when you said that this was the saddest
    thing you've ever seen me post, you might be thinking that I was either ignorant of the "whopper means .1 or more" convention, or that I made
    a mistake and didn't notice that the displayed equity difference was
    less than .1, but didn't want to admit my ignorance or my mistake.
    Neither is the case. I knew the convention, I knew the equity
    difference was less than .1, and I intentionally used the word
    whopper because I know that the bot numbers are approximate.

    Maybe you're sad for some other reason, which is fine, but it honestly
    didn't occur to me that you might think I was embarrassed to admit
    ignorance or a mistake. I'm not afraid to admit either of those things
    when the occasion warrants, but that doesn't apply here.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Jan 7 08:54:43 2022
    On 1/3/2022 11:08 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 1/3/2022 10:53 PM, I wrote:
    On 1/3/2022 12:10 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
    I can only pray this is a joke because if this is an actual attempt
    at an excuse of how your usage of whopper was legitimate it would be
    the saddest thing I've ever seen you post.  And given your follow up
    on the other post I really fear this isn't a joke.

    It's not a joke.  Try not to cry.

    It just occurred to me that when you said that this was the saddest
    thing you've ever seen me post, you might be thinking that I was either ignorant of the "whopper means .1 or more" convention, or that I made
    a mistake and didn't notice that the displayed equity difference was
    less than .1, but didn't want to admit my ignorance or my mistake.
    Neither is the case.  I knew the convention, I knew the equity
    difference was less than .1, and I intentionally used the word
    whopper because I know that the bot numbers are approximate.

    After thinking about it a bit, I thought this debate seemed familiar,
    and a quick search confirms that it came up in 2017.

    https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/Qzs1aqvZmX8/m/uVydFlMnGAAJ

    Of course, I knew back then what "whopper" meant and my intentional
    use of the word back then was based on the same principle that I'm
    using now.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 17 09:21:28 2022
    XGID=-BBAA-C-B-A-bBac---cbAbb--:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X X | | 2 |
    | O X X | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 104 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 11 17:09:04 2024
    XGID=-A-B-ADbC---bB-a-b-ccBb---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X O |
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X O | | X X |
    | O X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 128 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)