On Wednesday, August 25, 2021 at 6:37:57 AM UTC-4,
peps...@gmail.com wrote:
The position below is much too easy to give as a quiz but it might
be an instructive error. Rather than just mechanically thinking in
terms of crossovers and wastage, when we're very close to the end,
we should be alert to the possiblity of actually counting good rolls
to be sure of the best play. 15/5 gammon-saves for both 55 and 66
rather than 66 only. So I should have played that.
Apparently, I only dropped 0.024 equity but it somehow feels like
a bad and ignorant mistake despite it being far from whopper territory.
It could be called a "conceptual blunder" -- not an equity blunder
but not something you'd see in Stick's circle.
What made the experience worse is that, according to XG, that was
the only significantly suboptimal play I made.
Paul
XGID=-GE---A--------A--A----ba-:2:1:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X | | 4 |
| | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 56 O: 5 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 64
1. XG Roller+ 15/5 eq:-1.952
Player: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 100.00% (G:95.22% B:0.00%)
2. XG Roller+ 18/12 15/11 eq:-1.976 (-0.024)
Player: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 100.00% (G:97.61% B:0.00%)
3. 4-ply 18/8 eq:-1.952
Player: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 100.00% (G:95.22% B:0.00%)
4. 3-ply 18/14 15/9 eq:-1.975 (-0.023)
Player: 0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 99.98% (G:97.58% B:0.00%)
5. 2-ply 18/12 6/2 eq:-1.980 (-0.028)
Player: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 100.00% (G:98.00% B:0.00%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I have a slew of similar positions that I've saved up over the years that are quite easy and even if missed give up very little equity but, as you said, should never be missed. (yet frequently are OtB) If I group them up any time soon I'll be sure to
let you know where to get them.
Stick
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