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  • O has a blot in her board so I can do whatever I want

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 16 23:02:03 2021
    XGID=-a-BBCB-AB--b-b--ABcd-ab--:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Dec 18 17:37:55 2021
    XGID=-a-BBCB-AB--b-b--ABcd-ab--:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31

    Generally speaking, XG says I don't hit on the ace point enough. So
    here I tried hitting on the ace point and got dinged. X has partially
    escaped his back checkers and it seems that minimizing shots is the
    more prudent strategy. Also it is not so easy to cover the ace point
    even if O doesn't hit back immediately; see the variant.

    1. Rollout¹ 17/13 eq:+0.251
    Player: 63.49% (G:18.27% B:0.76%)
    Opponent: 36.51% (G:8.51% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.242..+0.259) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/15 eq:+0.121 (-0.130)
    Player: 59.75% (G:17.43% B:0.78%)
    Opponent: 40.25% (G:11.27% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.112..+0.130) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 5/1* eq:+0.115 (-0.135)
    Player: 59.64% (G:22.58% B:1.01%)
    Opponent: 40.36% (G:17.28% B:0.63%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.106..+0.125) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 9/8 9/6 eq:+0.108 (-0.143)
    Player: 58.78% (G:17.02% B:0.64%)
    Opponent: 41.22% (G:9.37% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.100..+0.115) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a-BBDB-AA--b-b--ABcd-ab--:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31

    1. Rollout¹ 17/13 eq:+0.200
    Player: 61.79% (G:20.18% B:1.06%)
    Opponent: 38.21% (G:10.69% B:0.46%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.193..+0.207) - [64.5%]

    2. Rollout¹ 5/1* eq:+0.198 (-0.002)
    Player: 61.72% (G:26.30% B:0.97%)
    Opponent: 38.28% (G:17.42% B:0.97%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.190..+0.206) - [35.5%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Dec 20 22:32:32 2021
    On Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 5:38:00 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-BBCB-AB--b-b--ABcd-ab--:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31
    Generally speaking, XG says I don't hit on the ace point enough. So
    here I tried hitting on the ace point and got dinged. X has partially escaped his back checkers and it seems that minimizing shots is the
    more prudent strategy. Also it is not so easy to cover the ace point
    even if O doesn't hit back immediately; see the variant.

    1. Rollout¹ 17/13 eq:+0.251
    Player: 63.49% (G:18.27% B:0.76%)
    Opponent: 36.51% (G:8.51% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.242..+0.259) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/15 eq:+0.121 (-0.130)
    Player: 59.75% (G:17.43% B:0.78%)
    Opponent: 40.25% (G:11.27% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.112..+0.130) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 5/1* eq:+0.115 (-0.135)
    Player: 59.64% (G:22.58% B:1.01%)
    Opponent: 40.36% (G:17.28% B:0.63%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.106..+0.125) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 9/8 9/6 eq:+0.108 (-0.143)
    Player: 58.78% (G:17.02% B:0.64%)
    Opponent: 41.22% (G:9.37% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.100..+0.115) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a-BBDB-AA--b-b--ABcd-ab--:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31
    1. Rollout¹ 17/13 eq:+0.200
    Player: 61.79% (G:20.18% B:1.06%)
    Opponent: 38.21% (G:10.69% B:0.46%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.193..+0.207) - [64.5%]

    2. Rollout¹ 5/1* eq:+0.198 (-0.002)
    Player: 61.72% (G:26.30% B:0.97%)
    Opponent: 38.28% (G:17.42% B:0.97%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.190..+0.206) - [35.5%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Builders for the bar to lock up the game essentially. He may not be able to hit with some of the aces.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Dec 21 04:36:08 2021
    On Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 10:38:00 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-BBCB-AB--b-b--ABcd-ab--:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31
    Generally speaking, XG says I don't hit on the ace point enough. So
    ...
    I haven't looked at your position (yet) but I get dinged for missing ace-point hits all the time.
    Usually, I just overlook them, rather than consciously decide against them.

    Unfortunately, most of the Anonymous groups are about learning to eradicate a behaviour
    rather than to introduce a behaviour --- for example, Alcoholics Anonymous, Gamblers Anonymous etc.

    An Ace-Point-Hitters Anonymous is exactly the opposite of what we need.
    We might need an Overlookers-of-Ace-Point-Hits Anonymous.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Dec 21 04:44:15 2021
    On Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 10:38:00 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-BBCB-AB--b-b--ABcd-ab--:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31
    Generally speaking, XG says I don't hit on the ace point enough. So
    here I tried hitting on the ace point and got dinged. X has partially escaped his back checkers and it seems that minimizing shots is the
    more prudent strategy. Also it is not so easy to cover the ace point
    even if O doesn't hit back immediately; see the variant.

    1. Rollout¹ 17/13 eq:+0.251
    Player: 63.49% (G:18.27% B:0.76%)
    Opponent: 36.51% (G:8.51% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.242..+0.259) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/15 eq:+0.121 (-0.130)
    Player: 59.75% (G:17.43% B:0.78%)
    Opponent: 40.25% (G:11.27% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.112..+0.130) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 5/1* eq:+0.115 (-0.135)
    Player: 59.64% (G:22.58% B:1.01%)
    Opponent: 40.36% (G:17.28% B:0.63%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.106..+0.125) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 9/8 9/6 eq:+0.108 (-0.143)
    Player: 58.78% (G:17.02% B:0.64%)
    Opponent: 41.22% (G:9.37% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.100..+0.115) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a-BBDB-AA--b-b--ABcd-ab--:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X X | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 31
    1. Rollout¹ 17/13 eq:+0.200
    Player: 61.79% (G:20.18% B:1.06%)
    Opponent: 38.21% (G:10.69% B:0.46%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.193..+0.207) - [64.5%]

    2. Rollout¹ 5/1* eq:+0.198 (-0.002)
    Player: 61.72% (G:26.30% B:0.97%)
    Opponent: 38.28% (G:17.42% B:0.97%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.190..+0.206) - [35.5%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    I would not have known that 5/1* is wrong.
    There's a significant TG probability for our opponent if you play 5/1*.
    In particular a return hit, followed by your dance looks clearly TG.

    If we change the match score or cube position to make it impossible for your opponent to be TG,
    then 5/1* might be correct.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)