• Leave a blot somewhere, anywhere

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Dec 15 20:58:46 2021
    XGID=-B-bBbCCa--B-B--Acbc-b----:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | X X | | X O X O X |
    | X O X | | X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 165 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 17 23:13:01 2021
    XGID=-B-bBbCCa--B-B--Acbc-b----:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | X X | | X O X O X |
    | X O X | | X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 165 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    I have to say I still don't really understand why XG thinks 16/10 7/6,
    or for that matter 13/6, is so much worse than 16/10 11/10.

    1. Rollout¹ 16/10 11/10 eq:+0.346
    Player: 56.85% (G:18.15% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 43.15% (G:8.91% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.333..+0.360) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 16/10 7/6 eq:+0.229 (-0.117)
    Player: 54.39% (G:18.54% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 45.61% (G:10.28% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.214..+0.244) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 16/9 eq:+0.210 (-0.136)
    Player: 53.99% (G:16.95% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 46.01% (G:10.48% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.196..+0.224) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.176 (-0.170)
    Player: 53.23% (G:15.48% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 46.77% (G:9.86% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.163..+0.190) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 16/15 7/1 eq:+0.159 (-0.187)
    Player: 52.52% (G:16.03% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 47.48% (G:10.49% B:0.45%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.144..+0.175) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ 13/12 13/7 eq:+0.158 (-0.188)
    Player: 52.57% (G:16.64% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 47.43% (G:10.55% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.144..+0.171) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Dec 20 22:29:04 2021
    On Friday, December 17, 2021 at 11:13:03 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-B-bBbCCa--B-B--Acbc-b----:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | X X | | X O X O X |
    | X O X | | X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 165 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    I have to say I still don't really understand why XG thinks 16/10 7/6,
    or for that matter 13/6, is so much worse than 16/10 11/10.

    1. Rollout¹ 16/10 11/10 eq:+0.346
    Player: 56.85% (G:18.15% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 43.15% (G:8.91% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.333..+0.360) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 16/10 7/6 eq:+0.229 (-0.117)
    Player: 54.39% (G:18.54% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 45.61% (G:10.28% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.214..+0.244) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 16/9 eq:+0.210 (-0.136)
    Player: 53.99% (G:16.95% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 46.01% (G:10.48% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.196..+0.224) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.176 (-0.170)
    Player: 53.23% (G:15.48% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 46.77% (G:9.86% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.163..+0.190) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 16/15 7/1 eq:+0.159 (-0.187)
    Player: 52.52% (G:16.03% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 47.48% (G:10.49% B:0.45%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.144..+0.175) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ 13/12 13/7 eq:+0.158 (-0.188)
    Player: 52.57% (G:16.64% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 47.43% (G:10.55% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.144..+0.171) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Mainly how the opp's immediate fives play.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)