Does anyone know the specifics?
A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for auction.
Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.
However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum'
in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so
perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.
Evil Nigel
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Does anyone know the specifics?
A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for auction.
Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.
However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum'
in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so
perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.
Evil Nigel
---
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus
On Monday, 6 September 2021 at 12:17:05 UTC+1, nigel wrote:
Does anyone know the specifics?
A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for auction.
Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.
However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum' in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.
Evil Nigel
---Not heard this story before. Its not as if Alan was a known gambler. It was a good read.
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus
Doollow et al.:even money’ betting (red/black, high/low, even/odd).
Axiomatics, I don’t know exactly what gambling system Alan Turing is writing about. I can only see his letter has a tile: “Gambling System”. Then he refers to “batches of 10 spins”.
I don’t think a ‘1/37 bet in 10 spins’ is feasible in roulette. Only an ‘18/37 bet’ can be applied to a roulette gambling system. Thus, we can apply the ‘normal probability rule’ to an event of probability p = 18/37. It is the case of ‘
In the case of an event of probability
p = 18/37 (.48648649) in 10 trials,
88.9340988586645 % of successes will fall within
1 standard deviation(s) from 5
i.e., between 3 and *7*
the standard deviation is: 1.58056
This is how roulette is paying. You win an ‘even-money’ bet; they pay you a profit of 1, plus they give you back 1 (your bet). So, you need to make the adjustments for the ‘1/37’ probability cases. Only when you win, they give you back your bet.
At best: 7 wins x 2 = 14 betting units won in 10 spins; profit: 14 – 10 = 4 units.
At worst: 3 wins x 2 = 3 betting units won in 10 spins; loss: 6 – 10 = – 4 units.
• Minimum number of wins to make a profit in 10 spins: 6 (12 – 10 = 2) • Probability of *at least* 6 wins in 10 spins: 34%.
Probably Alfred Beuttell played a roulette system like this:
• Play ‘even-money’ bets only
• Divide your playing sessions into “batches” of 10 spins
• If you reached 5 or fewer wins in the 1st batch, increase your bet in the next series of 10 spins
• Increase again if fail
• If 5 or more losing batches, start martingaling.
The best roulette gambling is for ‘p=2/3=66%’ bets (double-dozen, double-kolumn).
• https://saliu.com/best-roulette-systems.html
• “The Super Roulette Strategy: The Best Roulette Systems Ever: Win–Loss Streaks, Progression Betting”.
Ion Saliu
Founder of Gambling Science
Spin Doctor in Roulette Mathematics
On Monday, 6 September 2021 at 12:17:05 UTC+1, nigel wrote:https://www.avast.com/antivirus
Does anyone know the specifics?
A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for
auction.
Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small
profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.
However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum'
in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his
chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so
perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.
Evil Nigel
Not heard this story before. Its not as if Alan was a known gambler. It
was a good read.
"NN" <november.nihal@gmail.com> wrote in message news:4f2371fd-de6d-4781-90e1-fc8847b24362n@googlegroups.com...
On Monday, 6 September 2021 at 12:17:05 UTC+1, nigel wrote:
Does anyone know the specifics?
A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for >>>auction.
Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small >>>profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.
However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum' >>>in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his >>>chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so >>>perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.
Evil Nigel
https://www.avast.com/antivirus
Not heard this story before. Its not as if Alan was a known gambler. It
was a good read.
I've not heard of it.
If you have the energy then Martingale is as simple as it gets.
MJ
Marmaduke Jinks wrote:
"NN" <november.nihal@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:4f2371fd-de6d-4781-90e1-fc8847b24362n@googlegroups.com...
On Monday, 6 September 2021 at 12:17:05 UTC+1, nigel wrote:
Does anyone know the specifics?
A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for >>>>auction.
Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small >>>>profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.
However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum' >>>>in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his >>>>chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so >>>>perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.
Evil Nigel
https://www.avast.com/antivirus
Not heard this story before. Its not as if Alan was a known gambler. It >>>was a good read.
I've not heard of it.
If you have the energy then Martingale is as simple as it gets.
MJ
But the ability to win 'an unexpectedly large sum in the short term' is
not indicative of a simple martingale. I reckon there's something else
going on.
Evil Nigel
He should have said "stop at a winner" and Go Home. I used "Stop at a winner" on my Ladbroke betting slips back in the 90's
MJ Martsopolleahk
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