• A surprisingly detailed telling of early days in Ukraine War

    From a425couple@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 23 16:32:36 2022
    XPost: soc.history.war.misc

    It seems to me, that this is A surprisingly detailed telling
    of the events and hits in the early days in Ukraine War.

    from https://www.jns.org/opinion/missiles-and-uavs-in-the-ukraine-war-a-preliminary-evaluation/

    COLUMNAnalysis
    UZI RUBIN

    Missiles and UAVs in the Ukraine war: A preliminary evaluation
    A significant dimension of the war in Ukraine is the extensive use of
    UAVs and precision missiles, both ballistic and cruise. Of the three
    types of weapons, precision cruise missiles seem to have been the most effective to date.
    Uzi Rubin
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    (May 22, 2022 / Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security)

    In what was called dubbed a “Special Military Operation,” Ukraine was invaded on Feb. 24, 2022 by a vast Russian army, seeking—in Russian
    President Vladimir Putin’s own words—to turn Ukraine into a neutral and disarmed state, as well as to “de-Nazify” its government. Russia’s “Special Military Operation” is indistinguishable from a high intensity, full-scale war between unequal contenders: On one side, a nuclear
    superpower with a vast manpower pool deploying huge stockpiles of modern weapons. On the other side, a non-nuclear European country with limited military power, whose aging weapons stockpiles mostly hail from the
    Soviet era.

    At the time of writing, it seems that the first stage of this war is now
    over. The results from Russia’s point of view have been disappointing,
    though with some solid gains on the ground. Ukraine’s government and
    people displayed remarkable resiliency as well as surprising military
    prowess. At present, it is hard to predict the course of the war, which
    may last months, if not years.


    This twenty-first-century war is being fought in multiple dimensions, including—and with particular intensity—on the cognitive front. Both
    sides inundate the public with verbal and visual information, including
    a flood of smartphone videos uploaded to social media. Obviously, both
    sides’ disclosures are highly biased, yet, careful perusal yields some preliminary impressions on the impact of those quintessential modern
    weapons, precision missiles and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).

    This article was completed in mid-April 2022, when the first phase of
    the war—the battle for Kyiv—ended with a Russian failure. The
    observations and insights in this article are relevant to this phase
    only. The second phase of the war—the battle for eastern Ukraine—has already begun and is raging at the time of publication. Its course and
    outcome may require a reassessment of the conclusions offered at the end
    of this article.

    Missiles

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    As already stated, the so-called “Special Military Operation” is in
    reality a full-scale war. Western sources disclose that Russia committed
    to the invasion of Ukraine no less than 120 battalion tactical groups comprising some 1,200 main battle tanks, 3,600 armored personnel
    carriers, 720 self-propelled guns, dozens of mobile air defense
    batteries and thousand of logistic and command vehicles.[1] This vast
    force invaded Ukraine from the north, east and south. The invasion was
    preceded by a pre-emptive air strike on the Ukraine Air Force (UAF)
    airbases and Ground-Based Air Defense (GBAD) bases.

    The Russian strike comprised about 100 Air-Launched Cruise Missiles
    (ALCM), launched from Russian strategic bombers flying over Russian
    territory. The impression is that this Russian opening strike was
    underpowered. Open sources indicate that Ukraine has eight
    fighter-aircraft bases, one UAV base, three air-transport bases, 10 GBAD
    bases (mostly deploying Soviet-era S-300 systems) and 12 civilian or general-purpose airfields potentially usable by the UAF. The Russians
    needed to destroy all of them in one blow to achieve immediate air
    supremacy over Ukraine. With fewer than three missiles allotted to each
    target on average, it seems that Russia’s strike was too weak to
    accomplish its goal. Indications are that while the Russian missile
    strike degraded the UAF’s operational capabilities, it failed to
    extinguish them entirely.

    Still, there is no doubt that the Russian strike had a significant
    effect, as is evident in Romania, where a Ukrainian fighter aircraft
    made an emergency landing because the destruction of its home airbase
    prevented it from landing there (the aircraft was later permitted to
    return to Ukraine). The runways of the transport airbase in the town of
    Uzerme were cratered by Russian cruise missiles in the early morning
    hours of Feb. 24, thereby making them unserviceable and grounding the
    Ukrainian quick reaction forces based there.[2]

    A few hours after the preliminary airstrike, Russia launched a massive
    vertical flanking operation aimed at capturing the Antonov Airport in
    Kyiv’s suburb of Hostomel. Ukrainian smartphone videos uploaded to
    social media show dozens of low-flying Russian troop-carrying
    helicopters, escorted by gunships, flying towards Hostomel. Russian
    videos, released by the Russian Ministry of Defense (RMOD), show Russian commandos being landed inside the Antonov Airport perimeter. It stands
    to reason that the Russian military high command would not have embarked
    on such a massive airborne operation unless convinced that it had
    achieved air supremacy, at least locally.

    Nevertheless, evidence suggests that the UAF was still active at the
    time, despite the Russian preliminary strike, and managed to engage the
    Russian air cover, shooting down several Russian fighter jets. Moreover,
    images released to the media show Ukrainian bombers attacking Russian
    troops in Hostomel. Ukraine’s armed forces managed to re-take the
    Antonov airport by the evening of that day. It was reoccupied the next
    day by Russian armor advancing from the Belarus border. Nevertheless,
    energetic Ukrainian resistance managed to render the Antonov Airport
    runways unserviceable for Russian troop transporters, thereby
    frustrating the Russian plan to win the war in one blow by landing
    special forces at Antonov that could quickly capture the nearby capital
    of Kyiv, establishing there a Russian-friendly government.

    It seems, then, that the failure of the Russians to wipe out the UAF in
    their initial missile strike played a significant role in the failure to achieve a quick victory.

    Thus, Russia’s bid to wipe out Ukraine’s air capability at the very beginning of the war—a Russian version of Israel’s “Operation Focus” that wiped out the Arab air forces at the start of the Six-Day War in 1967—was only partially successful. What was the reason for that
    failure? One hint is a satellite photo published in Western media,
    showing a Ukrainian runway with three fresh craters in the surrounding
    terrain. The runway itself is untouched and perfectly serviceable.
    According to an anonymous source in the U.S. Air Force, many Russian
    cruise missiles “failed to launch, missed or failed to explode after impact.”[3] The result was that the UAF managed to retain a significant measure of combat capability in the first days of the war.

    Yet the Russians persevered in their efforts to erode the UAF’s fighting power via a persistent campaign of destruction targeting serviceable
    runways across Ukraine. For example, on March 6 they destroyed the
    commercial airport in the town of Vinnitsya in central Ukraine. On March
    13, they followed up by destroying Lutsk’s Airport in northeastern
    Ukraine, then demolishing the international airport of Ivano-Frankivsk
    in the southwest. The small airport of the town of Dnipro in eastern
    Ukraine was wiped out on April 10. It stands to reason that all these operations, carried out by cruise missiles, were aimed to deprive the
    UAF of runways.

    Why the Russians did not take out these targets in the opening strike
    remains a mystery. Nevertheless, the impression is that the cumulative
    effect of the runway-busting campaign, complemented by the systematic destruction of fuel dumps all over the country, significantly eroded the UAF’s capability to fight back. In late April, a UAF combat pilot told a
    U.S. interviewer that the remaining UAF fighter jets exploit stretches
    of uncratered runways for takeoff and landing, managing to launch a
    meager number of sorties, about five to 10 per day—a paltry number which
    has more symbolic than operational effect.[4] Ukraine President
    Volodymyr Zelensky’s urgent calls for the West to establish a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine and to send replacement fighter aircraft to his
    country are clear indications of the dire straights of the UAF.

    It seems that Ukraine’s GBAD array, too, was severely damaged by the
    Feb. 24 preliminary strike, as well as by subsequent Russian attacks.
    According to the Turkish blog ORYX, whose reliability was verified by
    its coverage of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the Ukrainians had
    lost—at the time of writing—22 S-300 launchers as well as 17 other short-range GBAD batteries.[5] That some Ukrainian GBAD capability did
    survive is attested to by the alleged reluctance of the Russian Air
    Force to operate in Ukraine’s skies. A hint is provided by the Russian
    armed forces’ disclosure that it had attacked a Ukrainian S300 radar on
    April 5—indicating that the Ukrainians still had serviceable air
    defenses more than five weeks after the outbreak of the war. At
    Ukraine’s behest, four S-300 batteries were provided by Eastern European neighbors still operating this venerable ex-Soviet system.

    In summary, then, while Russia managed to bring UAF manned aircraft
    operations to a near standstill, it still lacks (at this time) an
    uncontested control of Ukraine’s airspace, particularly at low altitudes
    that are within the range of MANPADs (Man Portable Air Defense Systems,
    that now include the modern Western systems being rushed into Ukraine
    from the United States and European countries). This is a testimony to
    the bravery and steadfastness of Ukraine’s soldiers in their struggle
    against a much superior Russian air force. It also demonstrates the perseverance and power of the Russian armed forces, based on qualitative
    and quantitative superiority as well as the capacity to cover the entire national territory of Ukraine with cruise and ballistic missile fire. It
    seems at present that Russia has the wherewithal to achieve full air
    supremacy over Ukraine. Whether it will succeed in doing so remains to
    be seen.

    The impression is that the brunt of the attacks on UAF assets have been
    via cruise, rather than ballistic missiles. The Russian SS-26 Iskander precision quasi-ballistic missiles can reach deep into Ukraine from
    launching points in the eastern part of the country as well as from
    Belarus. Photographic evidence shows their use against Ukraine’s
    military and civilian infrastructure, for example a salvo of four
    Iskander missiles taking off from Belarus and demolishing a regional
    Ukrainian military headquarters compound. Yet there seems to be a lack
    of evidence for Iskander attacks against UAF targets—perhaps because
    such attacks were not recorded.

    The assumed preference of cruise over ballistic missiles in dealing with
    UAF assets—if true—begs for an explanation. A lack of Iskander missiles
    is not plausible: the Russians have been firing them in abundance since
    the beginning of the invasion—100 rounds just in the first week of the fighting.[6] Perhaps the explanation lies in the different warheads,
    since those of the Iskander’s ballistic missiles are generally heavier. Perhaps cruise missiles with their lighter warheads are reserved for
    softer targets like air force assets, while the heavier Iskanders are
    used against more hardened targets. This, of course, is speculation that
    has not been corroborated at the time of writing.

    Beyond the extensive use of the current generation of legacy precision missiles, the Russians unleashed one of their cutting-edge missiles—the air-launched, hypersonic Kinzahl, making its debut on the world’s battlefields. The Kinzahl, which has a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,240
    miles), is launched from the MiG-31 heavy combat aircraft on the usual
    curving trajectory, but has tremendous maneuvering capability once it
    reenters the atmosphere. Hence, it can be fired in an offset direction
    but curve at the last minute into the target. This prevents the defender
    from guessing the intended target or predicting the final trajectory of
    the missile, rendering all existing missile defense systems (based on trajectory prediction) impotent against this type of threat.

    At the end of March, the Russian Army spokesperson disclosed that Russia
    had already used this weapon on three occasions: To attack an ammunition
    dump in western Ukraine, to hit a parking garage in downtown Kyiv where—according to the Russians—the Ukrainians hid Grad rocket launchers and against fuel dumps in the city of Mikolaiv in Southern Ukraine. The missiles were launched from a distance of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles).
    The Russians’ justification for employing such defense-evading missiles against a country that lacks missile defense was that the Kinzahl’s tremendous terminal speed was essential for penetrating bunkers and
    underground structures. [7].

    This explanation is not too convincing, especially when considering the
    attack on fuel dumps. It is more likely that the Russians chose to use
    this cutting-edge weapon rather than more conventional missiles for a
    “shock and awe” effect against the United States and its allies. The psychological impact was indeed significant, and the appearance of the
    Kinzahl on the battlefield reignited the heated debate on why the United
    States still lacks weapons of similar capabilities.

    Ukraine has its own missile industry, and during the years preceding the current war, it disclosed the development of an Iskander—like precision missile. It also developed the Polonez precision rocket, sold to
    Azerbaijan and used during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Yet there is
    no evidence of any Ukrainian indigenous missiles being used in the
    present war.

    At the same time, evidence shows that Ukraine is using its Soviet-era
    SS-21 Tochka missiles. Various sources estimate that Ukraine had about
    500 missiles of this type and up to 90 launchers at the onset of the
    war. This short-range missile (120 to 140 kilometers or 75-85 miles)
    often carries an anti-personnel cluster munition warhead. On one
    occasion, a Ukrainian Tochka missile hit the Sea of Azov port of
    Berdyansk, now occupied by Russia. The Russians claimed that they had intercepted that missile, but images of its debris don’t show any
    evidence supporting this claim.

    On two well-advertised occasions, Tochka missiles caused massive
    civilian loss of life. On March 14, a Tochka missile hit the city of Donetsk—the capital of the pro- Russian Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR)—killing 20 civilians and triggering a Russian accusation of “genocide.” On April 4,another Tochka hit a train station in the
    Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, killing 59 civilians. The spent rocket
    section of the missile carried the enigmatic inscription “For the Children.” This event may have been retaliation by the DPR for the
    earlier missile attack on Donetsk attributed to Ukraine.

    It seems that beyond their effect on the cognitive battlefield,
    Ukraine’s ballistic missiles have had no discernable effect on the
    course of the land battles. One caveat: On April 1, a fire broke out in
    an oil depot in the Russian city of Belgorod, located 40 kilometers (25
    miles) from Ukraine’s border. One smartphone video shows what seems to
    be three missiles slamming into the depot. On April 25, two oil storage
    tanks in the Russian city of Bryansk, 150 kilometers (93 miles) from the Ukraine border caught fire simultaneously. Russia blamed it on Ukrainian helicopter attacks. Ukraine denied responsibility for the Belgorod event
    but refused to comment on the Bryansk fire. Some observers argue that
    both events were caused by the Ukrainian Tochka missile attacks.[8]
    Perhaps the Ukrainians did put their Tochka missiles to a better and
    more strategically significant use than mere propaganda.

    In summary, then, it seems that in spite of their problematic
    reliability and occasional accuracy problems, Russia’s ballistic and
    cruise missiles (of which more than 1,000 rounds are estimated to have
    been used at the time of writing) were effective in suppressing the UAF
    combat capability as well as Ukraine’s air defenses. Ukraine does not
    possess modern missile defense weapons. According to various sources,
    UAF fighter aircraft managed to shoot down some Russian cruise missiles.

    In a televised April 25 interview, an anonymous Ukraine fighter pilot
    stated that he had managed to shoot down two out of six cruise missiles launched by the Russian navy from the Caspian Sea at Odessa.[9] While he describes this as a “satisfactory achievement,” the Ukrainian pilot admitted that it was more effective to combat cruise missiles from the
    ground, and stressed the need for modern GBAD and anti-missile systems.
    With no effective protection, Ukraine’s air bases, logistic centers and ammunition depots are largely exposed to Russian deep-striking precision
    cruise missiles. At the time of writing, the other missiles used by the respective sides—the ultramodern “Kinzahl” and the obsolete “Tochka”—seem to have had no significant effect except on the cognitive battlefield.

    UAVs

    One other significant dimension of the Battle of Ukraine is the
    extensive use of UAVs by both sides, for obtaining visual intelligence
    as well as for ground attack. In 2019, Ukraine purchased from Turkey 20 Bayraktar TB2 armed UAVs, a type that later on proved its mettle in the
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war as well as in sundry other conflicts in the
    Middle East and North Africa. The Ukrainians have been using them
    against the invading Russians since the outbreak of the war.

    Like the Azerbaijanis in the 2020 war, the Ukrainians also used videos
    from their UAVs successes for propaganda, releasing action videos
    recorded by the Bayraktar’ cameras of Russian armor and vehicles being
    hit. Yet, in contrast to the decisive role of the Bayraktars UAVs
    against Armenia’s army in 2020, their impact in the current Battle for Ukraine seems marginal.

    As of April 12, the Turkish ORYX blog listed total Russian mobile
    equipment losses as 476 tanks, 849 armored personnel carriers and 787
    trucks. Of these, only six armored personnel carriers and 24 trucks but
    not a single tank were attributed to Bayraktar strikes. The results were somewhat better with regard to Russian mobile GBAD systems: Out of 25
    systems lost by Russia, 10 were attributed to Bayraktar strikes.

    It seems that the Bayraktar operators (some of whom were Turkish,
    judging by the soundtrack of one of those videos) strove to emulate
    their strategy from the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, when they first
    destroyed most of Armenia’s GBAD systems, thereby freeing them to go
    after its armor, trucks and troop concentration. It seems, however, that
    this time the Turkish-made UAVs did not repeat their former success, as
    evident from the negligible amount of Russian equipment they destroyed. Moreover, since each Bayraktar video is date-stamped, scrutiny of the
    strike dates indicates that after the first week of the war, the success
    rate started to decline, coming to a virtual stop in mid-March, after
    which date Bayraktar kills became rather rare.

    Two different explanations can be offered for this decline in the
    recorded kill rate of the Bayraktars. First, the more modern Russian
    mobile air defense systems were more successful than the obsolete
    Armenian ones in shooting down the slow-flying and vulnerable Bayraktar
    UAVs. Second—an explanation offered by some Turkish observers—is that
    the Ukrainians decided to decrease the media exposure of their combat
    UAVs to divert Russian attention. This second explanation sounds
    artificial and even if true, is by itself an indirect confirmation of
    the first one—that the Russians got the measure of the Bayraktars and
    were shooting them down at a high rate.

    The Ukrainians are making extensive use of Unmanned Helicopter Vehicles (UHVs).[10] An article published in a leading Western newspaper
    describes the establishment, several years ago, of a heavy UHV unit in
    Ukraine staffed by volunteers and UHV enthusiasts. The unit’s personnel developed their own brand of heavy, eight-rotors UHVs, that could carry
    light bombs.

    The founder of that unit was a Ukrainian high-tech expert who had
    participated in the 2014 “color revolution” that deposed the incumbent pro-Russian president. Financing of R&D and production came from small government budgets and crowdsourcing. At the outset of the Russian
    invasion, a substantial armored column approached Kyiv from the north.
    The Ukrainian VHS unit sortied out, moving by night aboard all-terrain vehicles. Bombs from their heavy VHSs destroyed the leading vehicles of
    the column, thereby bringing it to a dead stop. The unit’s VHSs then concentrated on the destruction of fuel and supply trucks at the tail
    end of the convoy, paralyzing it for several days.

    According to this report, the Russian tried to disrupt the Ukrainian
    UHVs by electronic interference, but had to stop from time to time to
    allow their own UAVs to operate. The Ukrainians exploited the pauses in electronic interference to launch their own heavy UHVs.[11] As we have
    already observed above, the information provided by both sides in this
    war is highly biased, and the story of how a crowdsourced group of
    high-tech enthusiasts stopped a Russian armored column seems biased
    enough. However, some indirect corroboration for the story, or at least
    parts of it, comes from a Russian-released video showing a mobile air
    defense system shooting down a heavy, eight-rotor Ukrainian UHV.

    Apart from militarized heavy UHVs, the Ukrainians are making an
    extensive use of commercial-grade UHVs of the kinds available from
    consumer goods vendors. Social media is flooded with images captured by commercial-grade UHVs depicting Russian forces in the field, the
    destruction of Russian armor as well as war crimes committed by Russian
    troops against Ukrainian civilians. Ukrainian supporters in the West are contributing hundreds of commercial-grade UHVs to the Ukrainian
    forces.[12] It seems that commercial UHVs are rendering the battlefield transparent, making it impossible to hide military forces. Their
    position and movements are constantly monitored in real-time, at least
    in clear weather and mostly during the daytime.

    Russia, in turn, has thrown into battle all its types of UAVs. The
    primary type for tactical reconnaissance is the Orlan 10, an
    infantry-operated UAV for “beyond the hill” observation. RMOD releases
    show several types of combat UAVs in action against Ukrainian forces.
    One type of armed UAV featured by the RMOD is the Forepost-R, a Russian
    version of the unarmed Israeli Searcher 2 UAV sold years ago to Russia (Ukrainian released video footage shows the Israeli tags on the
    instrumentation of a downed Forepost-B).

    Russia’s leading armed UAV, equivalent to the Ukrainian-operated
    Bayraktar, is the Inokhodets (called Orion in its export version). This
    is a rather large UAV that can carry up to 250 kilograms (550 lbs) of
    ordnance, including air-to-air missiles for combating helicopters. One Russian-released video shows an Inokhodets UAV attacking ground targets
    with anti-tank missiles. At least one Inokhodets was shot down, probably
    by a Ukrainian MANPAD. In addition, the Russians unveiled their own
    suicide UAV, the KUB, which outwardly resembles the Iranian Shahed 136
    of the 2019 raid on the Saudi oil installation fame. Yet with all this
    large selection of Russian armed UAVs, their impact on the ground
    campaign seems limited at best.

    Conclusions

    The war in Ukraine is the largest land battle since the 1991 Gulf War.
    This article focused on the effect of precision missiles and UAVs on
    this battle. The following conclusions should be taken with a degree of caution, since they are based on incomplete, conflicting and biased information. The Battle of Ukraine is far from over, and its future
    course may confirm or refute the impressions now offered. With this
    cautionary caveat, let us proceed to draw some conclusions from the
    evidence to date.

    According to open-source evidence, it seems that Russia’s precision missiles—both cruise and ballistic—have significantly suppressed the UAF’s combat capability, largely preventing it from interfering with Russia’s maneuvering ground forces after the first few days of the war.
    It stands to reason that air combat was also significant in reducing the
    size of the UAF fighter force. Yet, the description of UAF fighters
    forced to take off and land on the remaining serviceable stretches of
    cratered runways testifies to the effectiveness of precision missiles in shutting down airbases. This is an important lesson for Western air
    forces, and especially so for the Israeli Air Force.

    As for unmanned aircraft, it seems that their most significant impact is
    in providing real-time battlefield reconnaissance. UAVs and
    UHVs—including commercial-grade systems—have brought about “the transparent battlefield” where nothing can be hidden. At the same time,
    it seems the ground attacks by armed UAVs of both sides had no
    discernable effect on the course of the battle. This is somewhat
    surprising given the decisive role of armed UAVs in recent land battles
    in northern Syria, Libya and the Caucasus.

    Two reasons can be offered for these contradictory results: First,
    compared to the land-based firepower from artillery and anti-tank
    weapons, the level of firepower provided by armed UAVs is negligible.
    Second, that the modern Russian GBAD protecting its advancing troops
    took the measure of the Ukrainian armed UAVs—the Turkish Bayraktars—and managed to shoot them down at a rate exceeding their replenishment
    rate—if indeed the Turks did offer any replenishment. It is estimated
    that on the eve of the war Ukraine had 20 Bayraktar UAVs in service. It
    seems then that the Russians managed to shoot down most of them during
    the first three weeks of the war—a lengthy but not unreasonable period
    of time.

    It follows then that armed UAVs may have a significant effect in
    low-intensity wars and against unsophisticated antagonists. The
    vulnerability of the larger types such as the Turkish Bayraktars and the Russian Inokhodets to modern GBAD reduces their ability to affect land
    battle in high-intensity conflicts (the jury is still out about the
    effect of suicide UAVs). This too is an important lesson to Western air
    forces. It seems that in ground attack missions, manned aircraft are
    destined to be replaced not by unmanned aircraft, but by precision
    missiles fired from hundreds of kilometers away. It will be the defense
    against such missiles—both of the cruising and ballistic types—that will decide the outcome of future wars.

    Uzi Rubin was founder and first director (1991-1999) of the Israel
    Missile Defense Organization in the Israeli Defense Ministry, which
    developed, produced and deployed the country’s first national defense shield—the Arrow Weapon System. He subsequently served as Senior
    Director for Proliferation and Technology in the National Security
    Council (1999-2001), and directed several defense programs at the Israel Aerospace Industries and in the Defense Ministry. He was twice awarded
    the Israel Defense Prize (1996 and 2003), and was also awarded the U.S.
    Missile Defense Agency “David Israel” Prize (2000). He has been a
    visiting scholar at the Stanford Center for International Security and
    Arms Control, where he directed a study on missile proliferation.

    This article was first published by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy
    and Security.

    Notes:

    [1] Mittal, V. How The Ukrainian Military Strategy Stalled the Russian Offensive, Harper, March 27, 2022

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammittal/2022/03/27/how-the-ukrainians-military-strategy-stalled-the-russian-offensive/?sh=3eeb248c30a0

    [2] Personal information provided to the present author by a former
    commander of the Estonian Air Force, a Soviet air force serviceman in
    his past. He received the information by phone on the morning of the
    Russian invasion from his former Soviet Army colleagues now serving in
    the Ukrainian armed forces.

    [3]Barrie, D. Ukraine: Russia’s Air-Launched Cruise Missiles Coming Up
    Short, IISS, April 1st 2022

    https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/04/ukraine-russias-air-launched-cruise-missiles-coming-up-short

    [4] Veronikova, M and Kramer, Andrew E. How Ukraine’s Air Force is
    Fighting Back Against Russian Jets, The New York Times March 31 2022

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/22/world/europe/ukraine-air-force-russia.html

    [5] Attack on Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During the 2022
    Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Oryx, April 4, 2022

    Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022
    Russian Invasion Of Ukraine – Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)

    [6] mil.in.ua(pro- Ukrainian blog) “Iskander Shelling: In a Week, Over
    100 Missiles Were Fired From Belarus”, March 30 2022

    https://mil.in.ua/en/news/iskander-shelling-in-a-week-over-100-missiles-were-fired-from-belarus/

    [7]Is the US Losing the Arms Race to Russia and China? Defense News
    Weekly Full Episode March 26 2022

    https://www.defensenews.com/video/2022/03/28/is-the-us-losing-an-arms-race-to-russia-and-china-defense-news-weekly-full-episode-32622/

    [8] Axe, D. Fuel and Ammo Depots Keep Blowing Up in Russia, Forbes April
    26, 2022

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/26/fuel-and-ammo-depots-keep-blowing-up-in-russia-ukraines-ballistic-missiles-might-be-why/?sh=1654537b46c5

    [9] MSNBC, April 25 2022 https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/news/ukrainian-fighter-pilot-moonfish-discusses-war-in-the-sky/vi-AAWzd8l?ocid=msedgdhp

    [10] In the present article, unmanned fixed-wing unmanned aircraft that
    take off horizontally are dubbed UAVs. Unmanned multi-rotor helicopters
    that take off vertically are dubbed UHVs.

    [11]Borger, J., “The Drone Operators Who Halted Russian Convoy Headed
    For Kyiv,” The Guardian, March 28, 2022

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

    [12] Greenwood, F., “Ukraine War Is Being Watched From Above,” Foreign Policy, April 2, 2022

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/02/russia-ukraine-war-drones-risks/

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