XPost: soc.history.war.misc

Truth About Russia ·
Posted by
Dimitri Vulis

Mon
Jean-Marie Valheur
political aficionado & former journalist Mon

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not turning out the way Vladimir
Putin thought it might. What miscalculations might Putin have made, not including the fact that Ukraine appears to have no intention of
surrendering?

The moment the Taliban began its Blitzkrieg of Afghanistan, Afghan
president Ashraf Ghani pretty much immediately threw in the towel and surrendered. He had good reasons for this — he remembered what happened
to the nation’s last puppet leader, Najibullah, who was castrated,
tortured to death and hanged in public for “working together with the enemy”.

So Ghani was like “thanks, but no thanks” and fled his nation. He remembered the Taliban’s fearsome reputation. Likewise, Putin was quite trusting of the fear factor of his Wagner Group, not to mention his
Chechen goons often nicknamed “Orcs”. In Kiev, the leader opposing him
was a wimpy looking former comedian, corrupt to the point of having been
named in the Panama papers… surely he, too, would flee to Poland the
soonest chance he would get.

Only he didn’t.

That was Putin’s biggest misculation. He overestimated the fear factor
of his supposedly mighty army. And he vastly underestimated the sheer
size of his enemy’s cojones. And honestly, before the invasion, who
could have blamed him?


Sometimes looks can be deceiving. Polls can be, too — Zelensky was
HUGELY unpopular prior to the war. Somehow by staying, he managed to
become an icon of resistance. And he turned himself from some sort of Eurovision type nobody into a war time leader the world hasn’t seen in
ages. It boosted the morale of Ukraine to the point where they developed
that special kind of “We wil never surrender” type of Churchullian energy.

And it’s beautiful. It was so easy to miscalculate this one. No one saw
this outcome coming. Putin’s gamble could have worked, Ukraine’s leader could have fled, and the whole Ukrainian armed forces would have folded
within a week, avoiding the long term war Putin desperately wanted to
avoid. Only it didn’t work out that way.

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52 comments from
Pam Dronka
and more

Pam Dronka
· Tue
Actually we don't really know yet how the situation will play out. Putin
and Zelensky have locked horns, and a furious, thrashing fight is underway.

Putin is in a no-win predicament. If he withdraws, he will have
sacrificed thousands of lives, untold amounts of military equipment, and
worst of all, confidence in his judgment. If he continues to fight, his
economy will tank, foreign relations will largely turn sour, and his own military might turn on him.

Zelensky has a lot of foreign and domestic support, but his country is
being beaten to death, so he's not in a great spot either. Still, I hope
he prevails.

I doubt Putin will reverse himself. It is possible that senior members
of his military will overthrow him. One hopes.

William Farrar
· Wed
I do not think the military will turn on Putin, anymore than it turned
on Stalin. Putin has a rock solid grasp on the KGB err, FSB, and its
partner in crime the Russian Orthodox Church.

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