XPost: soc.history.war.misc

Brent posts a serious LOT on Quora.
Here is a very bold and specific short term
prediction.

Brent Cooper
Trial and appellate counsel for Cooper & Scully (1993–present)Wed

How long do you think/reckon we'll have to live in Russia's Vladimir
Putin's world or reality?

I have posted this before. By June 1 Putin will be gone. Russians will
be fed up with the ineptitude of the Russian Army and the damage
sanctions are doing. They will be losing the war. The people of Russia
will see he is not returning the glory to Russia but bringing shame and humiliation. They will not tolerate Putin or failure.

Putin will be dead or deposed by June 1. Possibly May 9.

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Matthew Sutton
· Fri
I would like to believe this but by all indications I’ve seen, Putin’s popularity with Russians remains relatively high so far, especially the
Boomer generation that recalls the Cold War. Individual oligarchs have
little power. The generals seem respectful of Putin’s authority so far. Russians have always been accepting of massive casualties—10k sound like
a lot to Europeans nowadays it might not be that much to the Russian
mind. And remember: Putin controls the narrative that the Russian public
hears and sees. He might be broadcasting glorious victory after victory
to the Russian people who living in an echo chamber will have no other
source of information. Surely the military knows the truth but as long
as they are cowed by Putin they can be expected to tow the line. Look at
the Japanese military lying to itself, the government, and the public in
WW2. All the naval airmen and sailors that came back from the disaster
at Midway were not allowed to speak to the general public. Napoleon’s “bulletins” were known to be mostly exaggeration and misinformation. The
US government spun Vietnam into a success for many years until the
weight of information and eyewitness veteran and journalist accounts was overwhelming. There’s no reason to think that Putin can’t lie to the Russian people for a year or more and not get away with it.

Russians have been under sanctions for 8yrs or so and the average
Russian has always lived a precarious, hand-to-mouth existence
regardless of the ruble’s value or the Russian stock market or which
oligarch playboy’s yacht was seized in Nice.

I think we are all hoping against hope that Putin is deposed internally
but there’s a more than even chance that he’ll still be in power in 6–12–18–24mos. We have to prepare for this operation in Ukraine becoming a horrid drawn-out war of attrition with a massive refugee crisis that
might rival the end of WW2. If Putin’s back is really against the wall
(or neck on the line if you will) he still commands the world’s largest nuclear stockpile. We think no sane statesman would resort to their
usage in the 21st century…but a man with nothing to lose might do
something horrific.

It would be nice to imagine that Putin gets assassinated soon and the
world can breathe a sigh of relief and go on like this Ukrainian debacle didn’t happen, but as we speak China could possibly be preparing to
attack Taiwan and North Korea is testing ICBMs that are getting closer
and closer to reaching across oceans and continents.

We are living in a dangerous world where we in the West have to get our
heads out of our asses and move past the Clinton-era notion that with
free trade globalization and the “Pax Americana” we’re headed towards eternal harmony between countries.


Mugil Baan
· 10h ago
How does it matter if Putin is still popular? Either way, Russian people
have no say.


Ryan Simmons
· 15h ago
I tend to agree. I hope that this is wrong, but history doesn't seem to
bear this out, that he will be deposed or assassinated. Not only do
Russian people get fed propaganda, there doesn't seem to be a desire
that we can see for those people to want to learn more information.

Profile photo for Ryan Simmons
Ryan Simmons
· 15h ago
I tend to agree. I hope that this is wrong, but history doesn't seem to
bear this out, that he will be deposed or assassinated. Not only do
Russian people get fed propaganda, there doesn't seem to be a desire
that we can see for those people to want to learn more information.


Thomas Kelly
· Fri
Just one small thing. The Russian birth rate has been dropping for
years. Less young men to beef up the military must be a concern. Also
younger millennial Russians maybe don’t have the stomach for the
hardship their forbears endured. Also they are well informed regardless
of censorship by the old guard who are still frozen in a time machine
from the 1950’s. For Putin, the Berlin Wall still stands in his mind

Matthew Sutton
· 22h ago
This all likely true. But the West (US in particular) has dramatically overestimated the impact of sanctions before and predicted the early
overthrow of leaders it decided it didn’t like anymore (the Kims in
North Korea, Hugo Chavez, Saddam Hussein, Fidel Castro, the Ayatollah,
etc etc).

There’s a tendency to expect people (whom we forget are accustomed to subsistence living and privation) to get angry and risk their lives
rebelling against guys that Western leaders don’t like, all because the
West slaps some sanctions on the country. Generally the sanctions are
felt most by the wealthy and middle-classes which are typically small
segments of society in developing countries.

For instance the Russian stock market’s performance has little
consequence on the poor in Russia—who has never invested in it and never expected to be able to. The value of the ruble matters little to a poor
Russian provided he can eat and keep warm somehow by barter or
conniving. You would expect Russians as a whole to be writhing in
financial agony based on our Western media, but the poor in the Russia
probably don’t notice these sanctions any more than an indigent trailer
park dweller in Appalachia scraping by on disability cares about the
Euro-$ exchange rate or the performance of the NASDAQ.


Rob Kaye
· 18h ago
“Generally the sanctions are felt most by the wealthy and middle-classes which are typically small segments of society in developing countries.”

That's because if you want to effect regime change you target the
wealthy and the middle classes. You don't target the powerless.

And Russia isn't a developing country (I mean, if they keep Putin and
sanctions they will be in time.) It has a sizeable middle class. Now, to
be fair, they don't have much power either. Neither do the oligarchs.
But piss enough people off - the wealthy, the soldiers and the spies.
Well, as Yeltsin said, you can make a throne from spears, but you won't
sit on it long.


Mugil Baan
· 10h ago
Reports say Russian troops ran a tank over one of their generals. That’s
a very serious development.

I wonder if they were Chechen troops!

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XPost: soc.history.war.misc

On 3/27/2022 8:31 AM, a425couple wrote:

Brent posts a serious LOT on Quora.
Here is a very bold and specific short term
prediction.

Brent Cooper
Trial and appellate counsel for Cooper & Scully (1993–present)Wed

How long do you think/reckon we'll have to live in Russia's Vladimir
Putin's world or reality?

I have posted this before. By June 1 Putin will be gone. Russians will
be fed up with the ineptitude of the Russian Army and the damage
sanctions are doing. They will be losing the war. The people of Russia
will see he is not returning the glory to Russia but bringing shame and humiliation. They will not tolerate Putin or failure.

Putin will be dead or deposed by June 1. Possibly May 9.

Another by Brent Cooper

Brent Cooper
Follow
Trial and appellate counsel for Cooper & Scully (1993–present)Apr 5

What exactly is happening in Putin's head right now?

He is seeing things go from bad to worse.

He is now confronted with massacres in several cities, the most
prominent being Bucha. Putin has said there were no massacres and is
presenting his case to the UN today. Assuming he fails in his attempt
expect more sanctions to be imposed.

Second, most of Europe is finding alternative sources of energy and
ration g so they can stop buying Russian oil, gas and coal. Look for the Russian economy to further contact. It is now number 11 in the world
behind Canada and Italy. Look for it to drop out of the top 20. The
Russia economy is shrinking faster than a cheap pair of underwear.

Then there is China. China has been friendly to Putin and Russia in the
past. But things are changing. Soldiers getting killed in battle is one
thing. But massacres of citizens and gang rapes is another. China
already has issues with human rights violations and will not invite
further scrutiny by embracing Russia. China is starting to pull away.
China today urged Putin to settle the crises.

Putin is thinking they are losing the war and war of public opinion not
because of anything Ukraine did, but because of decisions Putin and his
General made. Nothing he is doing is working.

Putin is thinking that the walls are starting to close in. Particularly
if the UN presentation goes poorly. Fighting will not necessarily get
Putin killed or removed. Massacres will. I still stick with my date of
June 1 for Putin to be gone.

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doubtful, and even if Putin were removed from power, it would not relieve the world of the Russian threat.

According to Julia Ioffe, Putin's inner circle is more hardline than he is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSNo2FPQDQw

We're going to war.

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