XPost: soc.history.war.misc

On 3/20/2022 7:23 AM, a425couple wrote:

On 3/19/2022 4:23 PM, a425couple wrote:

from
https://news.yahoo.com/inside-the-cutting-edge-switchblade-drones-the-us-is-shipping-to-ukraine-164754374.html


(I have a question, How large a 'target' could the
Switchblade 300, is less than 2 feet long, weighs 5.5 pounds
take out?  A Fuel truck, sure.  But a standard truck???
Or is it only for an individual in a foxhole?)

Inside the cutting-edge Switchblade drones the U.S. is shipping to
Ukraine
Niamh Cavanagh
Niamh Cavanagh·Producer
Fri, March 18, 2022, 9:47 AM·3 min read

On Wednesday. the White House announced a new $800 million military
support package for Ukraine in a bid to help that country fight back
against the ongoing Russian invasion. Part of the aid package is for
cutting-edge aerial drones that experts say could prove exceedingly
lethal to Russian forces.

Jay Snead
retired researcher, amateur philosopher2h

What is so special about the Switchblade drones that the US is sending
to Ukraine that can be a game changer?
Not really a game changer, but a big help to an army that can’t call in
air strikes. They were developed for use by Special Forces who needed a weapon in Afghanistan for threats for which it took too long call in a
air strike, They are electrically powered and quiet.

The Switchable 300 is tiny and carries a warhead about the size of a
grenade that can take out a vehicle or a gun emplacement. It can fly for about 10 minutes and cover 20 miles. It’s like a grenade that you can
throw 20 miles. It costs $6,000.

The Switchblade 600 is bigger, over 100 pounds, but still “lugable” by one man. It can fly abut 40 miles and has a warhead that can attack a
tank or a bunker. It costs about 70,000, so it must be used against high-value targets.

5.1K viewsView 11 upvotesAnswer requested by
Luis Trigueiro

Matt LeBaron
·
Follow
Been there, done thatUpdated Sat
Is the switchblade drones Biden's sending a game changer? Are all tanks
at risk for Russia?
Yes, the Switchblade drones are a game changer and a huge threat to
tanks, though not for the reason you might imagine.


First, for a bit of background, the United States has announced that it
has sent 100 Switchblade systems to Ukraine as part of its recent $800MM defense package. Reports indicate these are Switchblade 300s and that
each system consists of 10 munitions (for a total of 1000 munitions) and
a control system.

The Switchblade 300 is the original anti-personnel variant, with a very
small warhead. It is essentially a grenade-tipped drone, though the
grenade focuses its blast straight ahead, instead of in all directions.
This is because the system was originally intended to be able to take
out a single soft target - a person, car, or truck - while causing
minimal collateral damage. The Switchblade 300 (and its larger
Switchblade 600 anti-armor version) are single-use weapons, often
referred to as “loitering munitions” rather than drones.


So, why are these a game changer and why are all Russian tanks at risk?

Well, we have learned that the Achilles heel for the Russian invasion is
its inability to resupply its forces. Russian soldiers have limited food
and Russian tanks, APCs, and IFVs have limited fuel. The Switchblade 300
is the perfect weapon to leverage this existing weakness and eliminate
the ability of the Russian forces to engage in war-fighting.

Given the accuracy of these devices, a single Ukrainian soldier can
launch a Switchblade 300 and control it as a loitering munition for
about 15 minutes, flying it around 6 miles before guiding it straight
down into its target. The payload is small, about the size of a hand
grenade, so not enough to penetrate a main battle tank…but plenty to
take out a soft-skinned vehicle like a truck.


Now, imagine you are a Russian conscript driving a truck full of
artillery shells to the front line, part of a small convoy of 10 trucks carrying fuel and ammunition. As you approach your drop off area,
something strikes the front of the ammo truck ahead of you and the cabin explodes. The ammo itself thankfully doesn’t go up, but the truck is
wrecked.

Driving slowly past the wreckage you look in to see that a shell
apparently crashed through the driver’s windshield and exploded.
However, it couldn’t have been a Bayraktar TB2 drone, because that 65kg warhead would have destroyed the truck entirely. In this case, just the
driver was killed and the truck incapacitated. It must have been a one-in-a-million shot of something smaller. Such are the chances of war.

However, two minutes later, as you pull up to the position you’re resupplying, one of the fuel trucks in your convoy goes up in a huge
ball of flame. You throw yourself out of your truck and into a ditch.
Clearly this must be artillery fire and you’ve been trained to get down.

But now you can hear it - the high-pitched whine of a drone. Lying on
your back you look up and see what looks like a small toy airplane
circling slowly several hundred feet above your position, just waiting.
It’s far too small for a SAM to hit, so a couple of soldiers begin
firing their AKs at it, but it’s too small to hit at that range.

Someone in charge begins yelling at you and the other drivers to start unloading your shells, hooking fuel trucks up to vehicles, etc. One of
the other drivers gets up from his ditch, runs out to his truck, and
opens the back of it. You watch in horror as the drone dips down and
flings itself at that truck, racing downward and striking it in less
than 10 seconds, before even a single box of shells can be removed.

The small initial explosion is immediately followed by a series of huge
blasts as the shells detonate. A third driver has been killed and his
payload destroyed.

A soldier yells at you to start unloading your truck. You hear yourself
yelling back that you’ll do it only if he does it together with you. There’s a moment’s pause as you look at each other before he lowers and shakes his head, cursing.

With the fuel truck still burning, and ammo still popping off, at this
point the only thing that you and those around you care about is getting
out of there. Leaving behind the slow trucks with their deadly payload,
you pile into a small car with a few of your fellow soldiers and hit the
gas, heading back up the road you came, terrified that you think you
hear a high-pitched whine….

So, yes, in sufficient quantities I believe the Switchblade 300 is an
absolute game changer in the Ukrainian war. It essentially allows a
single Ukrainian soldier to precisely kill a soft-skinned vehicle
(and/or a Russian soldier) from about 6 miles away every 30 minutes or so.

While the success rate of the drone is unknown, even if it is just 50%
then the UAF could take out 500 supply vehicles with Switchblades in
just a few days. These weapons will also have a devastating impact to
the morale of the Russian army and as a result might even cripple the
resupply effort without having to kill all the vehicles.

I expect Switchblade Operator to become a favorite role of Ukrainian
soldiers, similar to the role of Bayraktar Drone Pilot. I also expect
Ukraine will be asking the US for another batch of 1000 munitions every
few days until the conflict is over. I’m not sure what the current US stockpiles look like, or how quickly they can be manufactured, but I
wouldn’t bet against either US stockpiles or manufacturing.

In my opinion, if we get 10,000 munitions into Ukraine - 10x the
original shipment - then I don’t see how the Russian army could continue.

For more, check out my answer to Will Putin win the war?

(which is here:)

Matt LeBaron
Been there, done thatFeb 26
Will Putin win the war?
Putin’s war may be the most glaring example of a failure to read the
room in history. This post outlines one possible scenario for the war in Ukraine. It was written on February 26th and edited on February 27th.

Do you think this is possible or have I missed the mark? Comments welcome!

On February 24, 2022, Russia initiated an invasion of neighboring
Ukraine with dozens of missiles and air strikes, amphibious and airborne assaults.

To minimize civilian casualties, early Russian targets were mostly
military, with some notable exceptions. Ukrainian military forces fought
back effectively, slowing the Russian advance with heavy use of Javelin anti-tank missiles and by destroying bridges and roads opportunistically.

President Zelenskyy of Ukraine very publicly remained in the capital of
Kyiv, rallying his nation and calling on all men to defend their people. Ukrainian men and some women across the country answered that call,
lining up to receive weapons and preparing to defend themselves by
joining local militias.

Meanwhile, photographs and videos of the conflict, of civilian
casualties, and of fleeing refugees flooded social media. As a result,
the vast majority of nations across the globe spoke out against Putin
and against the invasion of Ukraine. Within four days of the attack,
Russia was hit with heavy sanctions, cyber attacks, banned from the
SWIFT financial system, and blocked from entering the airspace of a
great many European countries.

The rest of this answer is fictional conjecture, written on February 26th.

As Russian forces were bogged down in their initial offensive targeting
Kyiv, more and more military assets were allocated to capturing the
capital. By the end of the first week, combat had moved into the streets
of Kyiv resulting in massive destruction of civilian homes and
infrastructure, while casualties mounted on both sides.

In the second week of the invasion images of dead children and weeping
parents further solidified the anger and unity of NATO and the broader
western world, which sent first 50k, and then 100k troops to Eastern
Europe to bolster the defenses of NATO allies. Soldiers from the US, UK, Canada, France, Italy, and dozens of other nations married up with
previously stored equipment and took up defensive positions. Global
consensus and unity condemning Putin reaches levels not seen since the
9/11 attack on the United States.

In the third week of the invasion, Russia finally achieved true air
superiority and began bombing Kyiv in support of its ground offensive.
Fully 100% of the Russian forces amassed at the border of Ukraine enter
the country in support of the invasion. Entire blocks are leveled in
Kyiv and other cities as Russian planes bomb them and tanks seize them.
Kyiv is captured and Zelenskyy is wounded by shrapnel and captured.
Video of his capture is widely published and is credited as the sole
reason he was not killed outright. Putin claims Zelenskyy is a war
criminal and will be held to account for his crimes by the people of
Ukraine. He announces a temporary government led by members of former
Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych's cabinet, and calls for new
elections, making clear that anti-Russian candidates will not be tolerated.

Ukrainians broadly reject this new regime and combat shifts to a fierce insurgency as Ukrainian partisans attack and harass Russian forces
across the country. Russians begin rounding up and imprisoning civilians
who they claim to be insurgents. Word spreads of summary executions of
captured insurgents and, in some cases, their families, which the
Russians deny.

Within a few weeks President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is found guilty by a
secret military tribunal set up by the new regime and shot dead. He
becomes a martyr in the minds of many Ukrainians.

Meanwhile, the NATO+ Coalition, as it is now known, has quietly amassed
500k troops in Eastern Europe, mostly in Poland and Romania, claiming
they are for defensive purposes. In the summer of 2022 US President Joe
Biden addresses the world concerning the Occupation of Ukraine, saying
"this will not stand", echoing the words of US President George Bush in
1990 when he referred to the occupation of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein. The parallels are clear.

Coalition forces begin moving into staging areas for an attack into
Ukraine from Poland and Romania. Fully five USN Carrier Strike Groups
(CSGs) enter the eastern Mediterranean, preparing to support the
institution of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, while numerous aircraft
re-base to Eastern Europe. Turkey, while not contributing forces to the
ground assault, announces that it will allow Coalition forces to pass
through the Bosporus as needed.

Putin responds by declaring Ukraine to be sovereign Russian soil,
stating that any assault on Ukraine will be considered an assault on
Russia and any force entering the country will be subject to hell fire
unseen in decades, a clear reference to nuclear weapons.

The American politician landscape shifts, becoming temporarily more
bipartisan, as the American people call for a just war to liberate
Ukraine. Germany initially resists calls to contribute military forces
to the Coalition, but ultimately sees this as an opportunity to cleanse
the stain of World War II from its collective memory by fighting on the
side of a righteous cause.

As the American CSGs cross into the Black Sea, a sole Iskander missile
is launched from Crimea and detonates a nuclear warhead estimated at 50 kilotons just a few miles ahead of the US ships. It is the first use of
an atomic "shot across the bow" in the history of the world. Video of
the massive mushroom cloud and of waves battering the ships circle the
globe, but no losses are reported.

President Biden warns Russia that any attack on US ships will be seen as
an attack on sovereign US soil and will be retaliated with in kind. News
and social media erupt with frantic conjecture of WWIII and a nuclear holocaust.

In late summer, after much build up, NATO+ forces launch an attack from
Poland into Ukraine, starting with a devastating aerial bombardment
targeting air defense systems. Surprisingly, losses of NATO+ airframes
are relatively light, as most Russian operators of the S-400 and other
anti-air systems abandon their posts rather than light up their radars
and becoming active targets for ARM missiles. Russian forces fall back
as NATO+ forces advance, declining to engage. In response, N+ forces
slow their assault, allowing Russian troops to retreat with minimal
casualties.

Russian forces are pushed all the way back to Crimea, abandoning Donbass
and Luhansk to N+ and Ukrainian forces. However, N+ does not push into
Crimea, giving Russia defacto permission to continue controlling the
region. Rumors swirl about backroom negotiations allowing Russia to keep
Crimea in exchange for leaving the rest of Ukraine.

Ukrainian partisans harass retreating Russian soldiers mercilessly,
attempting to extract retribution in blood for the destruction of Kyiv.
The Russia-appointed government of Ukraine escape to Russia ahead of an
angry mob of Ukrainians.

NATO+ soldiers are greeted by ecstatic Ukrainians as liberators, and
pictures of Ukrainians throwing summer flowers at Americans, Poles,
Germans, and others cement a newfound sense of European unity.

As Russian troops exit from Ukraine, the Kremlin announces that Mikhail Mishustin is the new head of state, and that Vladimir Putin is stepping
down to take up the position of Chairman of the State Council.

Ukrainian and international calls for Putin to be tried for war crimes
before The Hague are brushed off by the new Russian regime as it
attempts to show its strength.

While western politicians claim that sanctions will remain until Putin
pays for his crimes, most such sanctions are quietly removed within a
few months, as Europe and Germany in particular is in need of Russian
natural gas ahead of the coming winter. Talk of backroom negotiations
frustrate Ukrainians and purists that want to see Putin pay for the harm
he has caused.

Meanwhile, elections in Ukraine are held in autumn and Olena Zelenska,
wife of the slain President, is elected to his office. She immediately
begins efforts to acquire Western military hardware to rebuild the
Ukrainian military, and also asks to be allowed to join NATO. Certain
NATO members block Ukrainian entry, Germany among them, hoping that by
doing so they can show the new Russian regime that NATO is not a threat
to Russia. NATO adopts an unofficial policy preventing further expansion eastward, along with a similar unofficial stance that it will protect
Ukraine from future Russian aggression.

Within a couple years a new Russian leader emerges, a little known
former operative of the FSB....

1.1K views27 upvotes16 comments

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