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R. W. Carmichael
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Former Intelligence Analyst at U.S. Air Force (1962–1970)10h
Will Ukrainians blow the Crimea bridge?
Yep. Twice as of today (7/17/2023.) The bridge’s days are numbered. And
so is the Stalin-era ferry service that is its backup. It was built
illegally and the Ukraine has every right to destroy it at will.

But the situation is a tad more complex than you might think. This was a personal pet project of Putin who even drove a truck across the bridge
at its opening. So striking it is a personal slap in the face of the
Little Guy.

But since the first strike against it in October, 2022, the Russians
guard it intensively with constant patrol boat and helicopter patrols, anti-submarine nets, blockade booms, foot patrols on the bridge,
inspections that cause six-hour delays in using it, no fewer than six
S-400 batteries, six Pantsir systems, and numerous MANPADs, a HiCAP of
fighter aircraft, and likely numerous other defenses. This helps tie up
Russian equipment and troops and keep them out of the fight.

The idea of attacking the bridge periodically, instead of just launching
a bunch of Storm Shadows and doing it all at once. That would free up
the defenses to be moved to the Ukraine to fight.

But it is also noteworthy that the six-hour delays and most of the other measures are based in the Russian belief that it was a truck bomb that
struck the bridge the first time. They supposedly determined who did it
and extracted confessions from them. But the truth was that it was
struck by a Ukrainian marine drone, just as it was this time. So the
inability of Russians to focus on reality that is right in front of them appears once again.

There will continue to be attacks on the bridge. It is great propaganda
for the Ukraine. Russians are being told that it is perfectly safe to
visit the Crimea, though tourists must being at least 40 1-kilo bottles
of water with them. There have been infamous six-hour delays in crossing
the bridge because of searches. But now Russian tourists are being told
NOT to use the bridge, but to use land routes along the western shore of
the Sea of Azov — through an active war zone! The word will get back to Russians that the Crimea is no longer safe to visit. And the loss of
Russia’s “Disneyland-by-the-Sea” will do more to discourage Russians
than any number of losses of men and tanks.

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16 comments from


Audie Chason
· 9h
Russia now knows the bridge is vulnerable. Ukriane can strike at will.
All those months spent restoring the bridge from the last strike, gone
in an instant. All those defenses Russia put in place didn’t stop it.
This is psychological warfare against the enemy.

R. W. Carmichael
· 3h
Precisely. This is Zelenskyy putting his dick in Putin’s tea, to use a Russian aphorism. The first time can be forgiven and forgotten. The
second time cannot.

Michael Woodman
Updated for the “putting his dick in putin's tea” reference. Yes I am a small person.

Ray McGarry
· 8h
Keep it up , bit by bit ,take it all back…..Bravo Ukraine…

Eddie Garcia
· 7h
All those defenses and Russia still failed at stopping another attack on
the bridge. I hope to see strikes on the bridge soon.


R. W. Carmichael
· 3h
The Turks want to return their S-400s, but Russia says “Nyet!”


Jan Krusat
· 5h
And the male tourists will probably get an invitation they cannot refuse
to stay in the war zone to help keeping the Ukrainians out.

Drazen Zoric
· 6h
Already Russians call Ukrainians terrorists cause of today’s bridge
strike. Murderers killing two innocent Russians and a baby.
Interesting enough they do not see what they are doing since 2014.
Btw, fantastic Russians anti-drone measures in action.

R. W. Carmichael
· 3h
A reason the Russians likely missed this is that the did not believe
that it was a marine drone that struck the bridge in October. They
believed it was a truck bomb. In fact, they caught the “culprits” and extracted confessions from them. Since then, their primary security
focus has been inspecting vehicles crossing the bridge. This has
resulted in six-hour waits to use it. But this time was the same as the
last time — a marine drone.
(look up - Explosive Uncrewed Surface Vessel)

Four of these got into Sevastopol harbor and badly damaged the Makarov
which was the flagship that replaced the Moskva.

The Ukrainians are making them out of jet skis.

Alex Rowan
· 9h
Wow. You have some excellent sources!

R. W. Carmichael
· 3h
Not really. I have just accumulated a lot of good OSINT sources since I
did that for a living in the military. There is a lot of information out
there if you know how to read it and how to connect the dots. I was
originally trained in 1962 as a SW USSR Air Defenses Analyst, so I had a
good starting place.

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