XPost: sci.military.naval, soc.history.war.misc

from https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/07/new-technology-sees-through-russian-attempt-to-hide-ships-from-ukraine/

Viewing the pictures at the citation helps this make more sense.

Click to enlarge. Analysis of a radar satellite image of Russian
warships, some with the new camouflage, in Sevastopol, Crimea. The
artificial intelligence (AI) ship detection algorithms used by Satim
Inc. can clearly differentiate different classes of ship even with the camouflage applied. Satellite image from Umbra Space.
New Technology Sees Through Russian Attempt To Hide Ships From Ukraine
Ukraine and NATO will be closely monitoring Russian naval activity in
the Black Sea. Russia has however tried to make this more difficult by
devising a unique new camouflage scheme. Modern technology can however
help unmask these deceptively camouflaged warships.
H I Sutton 12 Jul 2023

Russia is attempting to hide important warships in the Black Sea by
painting them in a new deceptive camouflage scheme. The ruse makes it
difficult to judge their length and shape, and so identify them in
satellite imagery. This could make it more difficult for Ukrainian
planners and, potentially, even thwart an attack.

Defense analysts have been exploring how effective it is. Initial checks
in some satellite images confirmed the viability of the camouflage.

However, Imagery analysis company Satim Inc. has shared a way in which artificial intelligence (AI) can help see through the camouflage. Their
AI can identify classes of ships in radar satellite imagery, which is
very difficult to do as a human. This approach is unaffected by the
camouflage.

This deceptive camouflage is unique to Russia in modern history and is
distinct from the more famous Dazzle camouflage. Dazzle attempts to
confuse an observer so that they misjudge distance, speed and heading.
Here the aims are quite different.

The New Camouflage Makes Some Sense
Since Naval News first broke the story of this camouflage June 22,
several more Russian warships have been observed with this scheme. The
flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate
Admiral Makarov, has had a more extreme camouflage applied. This
includes ‘blacking out’ the helipad and the bow of the ship. Then all
three of the Buyan-M class missile corvettes, the minesweeper Ivan
Golubets and the anti-submarine corvette Muromets, have the camo.

Camouflage
Click to enlarge. Guide to Russian Navy warships with new deceptive
camouflage
There are indications that the camouflage is intended to hide the
overall length and form of the ship when viewed from the surface, such
as by a maritime drone. However the larger factor is likely from above.
Here the camouflage is intended to make it harder to identify the ship
in satellite imagery. This is significant as we can reasonably expect
that both Ukraine and NATO are using satellites to monitor Russian fleet movements.

The camouflage isn’t likely to fool an experienced analyst if they have
time to study the image. But it might not have to still be useful to the Russians. How well the camouflage works will depend a lot on the light conditions, the satellite being used and the time available to analyze
it. Overall we can expect it to slow down the work of analysts and
increase uncertainty. This will be especially felt while creating a
picture of overall fleet disposition.

Another factor is the use of artificial intelligence. Countries can
leverage AI to speed up and scale-up image analysis. This AI may try to determine the length and shape of a ship to identify it. So it may
actually be more vulnerable to these types of camouflage than a human.

Seeing Through The Camouflage
Known as SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar), radar satellites are not new.
However it is only recently that commercial satellites have been able to provide high-resolution SAR imagery. Unlike regular satellite imagery
which passively interpret what they see, SAR radars produce their own
energy and then records the amount of that energy reflected back to
whatever is on the earth. The imagery can be beautiful, but it can be
difficult to interpret as a person. Ships appear blurred and the parts
which reflect the energy may not be intuitive, masking its form.
Experienced analysts may be up to the challenge, but there less
certainty than typical optical satellite imagery. Certainly,
differentiating two distinct classes of warship can be very difficult.

Satim Inc. have an answer. Their artificial intelligence is trained to recognize distinct classes of warship and submarine. Their system has a
level of accuracy over 90 percent. Satim have been able to demonstrate
to Naval News that their technology can identify the relevant classes of
ship in the Russian base at Sevastopol, Crimea. Using a SAR image taken
by an Umbra Space-owned satellite, it clearly identifies ships which are
known via other sources to have been camouflaged.


Another AI analysis of Russian Navy ships in Sevastopol by Satim Inc.
The Buyan-M highlighted has the new camouflage. Note how the AI can differentiate the different classes of ship even though they look
similar to the human eye. Satellite image from Umbra Space.
Outlook
Combined with other satellite imagery and other forms of open source intelligence (OSINT), the AI interpretation of SAR imagery can help
unmask the camouflaged ships. SAR has additional advantages that it
works at night and can see through clouds. Thus it increases the
persistence of satellite coverage.

Russia will likely continue to experiment with efforts to deceive
satellite monitoring. Last year, the Russian Navy has attempted to
disrupt imaging of ports and bridges by placing barges with radar
reflectors nearby. This is generally agreed to have not worked, and the
later abandoned the practice.

There are already indications that the first warship reported with the
new camouflage, the Admiral Essen, has had some or all of it removed.
However there is not yet any sign that it is being discontinued
elsewhere. And new ships may soon be identified with the camo. Analysts
will chase developments and adapt; the game goes on.

TAGS Russian Navy Ukraine
Facebook Twitter Stumble linkedin PinterestMore
AUTHORS

Posted by : H I Sutton
H I Sutton writes about the secretive and under-reported submarines,
seeking out unusual and interesting vessels and technologies involved in fighting beneath the waves. Submarines, capabilities, naval special
forces underwater vehicles and the changing world of underwater warfare
and seabed warfare. To do this he combines the latest Open Source
Intelligence (OSINT) with the traditional art and science of defense
analysis. He occasionally writes non-fiction books on these topics and
draws analysis-based illustrations to bring the subject to life. In
addition, H I Sutton is a naval history buff and data geek. His personal website about these topics is Covert Shores (www.hisutton.com)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)