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from https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/22/why-china-cant-broker-peace-between-israel-and-palestine

Why China can’t broker peace between Israel and Palestine
Beijing doesn’t have the tools that worked with Iran and Saudi Arabia.
But a failed effort could still be a win for China.

Ahmadi Ali
Scholar of sanctions and economic statecraft
Ahmed Alqarout
Global political economy analyst
Published On 22 Jun 2023

Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas talks to China's President Xi Jinping
after a signing ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing,
China June 14, 2023. JADE GAO/Pool via REUTERS
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas talks to China's President Xi
Jinping after a signing ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in
Beijing, China on June 14, 2023 [Jade Gao/Pool via Reuters]
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas visited Beijing last week, where he
met Chinese President Xi Jinping. Abbas was the first Arab President to
visit China since the China-Arab States Summit of Riyadh in December
2022 — signalling the importance that China appears to be placing on the Israel-Palestine issue.

The visit resulted in a leap forward in relations between China and
Palestine. They agreed to a strategic partnership. Palestine will
participate in Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative and a trio of new plans
that Beijing has unveiled in recent months — the Global Security
Initiative, Global Civilization Initiative and the Global Development Initiative — which collectively aim to present an alternative model of international relations to Western liberal norms. The two sides also
activated a range of economic plans targeted at increasing trade between
them.

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All of this stirred speculation about China’s new offer to mediate a
peace process between Israel and Palestine, and whether it can succeed.
So here’s the harsh reality: Beijing likely won’t be able to broker
peace, yet could notch up a geopolitical win for itself by just trying.

China’s plan includes supporting full membership for Palestine in the
United Nations as a sovereign and independent state with Jerusalem as
the capital, the preservation of the status quo in Jerusalem’s religious
holy sites and the resumption of peace talks with Israel on the basis of
UN resolutions. The aim: a “two-state solution” to finally realise
peaceful coexistence between Palestine and Israel which has been
attempted for decades.

But what’s in it for Beijing?

Beijing’s goals
The growing Chinese interest in the Palestinian issue stems from several motives that are consistent with Beijing’s broader objectives in the
region and internationally.

First, China is trying to build on its success in brokering a deal
between Saudi Arabia and Iran to extend regional peace to the Palestinian-Israeli arena. China is interested in protecting its growing investments in the Middle East and helping end or curb conflict is to
its advantage.

Second, China is trying to become a global leader in economic
peacemaking. Any progress towards solving the Palestinian-Israeli
conflict would solidify that image, one of the objectives of its Global Security Initiative.

Third, China is trying to disperse and counter Western pressure
regarding the issues of Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Ukraine, by
emphasising an issue of equal complexity and importance.

Importantly, the final two goals do not necessarily require that Chinese mediation succeeds in bringing a lasting end to the decades-long
conflict and struggle for Palestinian statehood. It can secure some of
its ambitions simply by positioning itself as a champion of diplomacy
and mediation.

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Will it work?
That’s vital to remember because, despite its growing enthusiasm,
China’s ability to actually advance a peace process is questionable — despite the regional trend in the Middle East towards diplomacy.

Israel’s hardline government stands as the most decisive reason for this bleak outlook. For Israel, the occupation and the aggressive military
and techno-authoritarian system of population control over the
Palestinian people represent larger religious and ethno-nationalist
goals that transcend basic state interests. It cannot be disabused of
these aims with instruments of statecraft such as diplomatic
arm-twisting or trade incentives.

This conflict, unlike the Saudi-Iran row, is also not a conflict between
two states on somewhat equal standing. It is between the occupied and an occupier who feels unchallenged and emboldened. Israel is even moving
towards the further annexation of Palestinian land. The rapid growth of
Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank has already rendered the two-state solution obsolete.

For Palestine, China’s growing interest still has clear advantages. By pushing forward the Abraham Accords with multiple Arab nations, the
United States isolated Palestinians who cut ties with the US government
in 2017 in protest and reduced their security coordination with Israel.

In a recent interview with CNN, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said negotiations with the Palestinians are no longer a
priority and the US-led Abraham Accords and peace with Arab countries
will come first.

As so, the Palestinians welcome Chinese leadership in negotiations to
balance against perceived US bias in favour of Israel. Though the
Palestinian Authority (PA) remains reliant on the US and its allies to
sustain its economic survival, as Washington increases pressure on the Palestinians by cutting aid, Abbas and his administration need Chinese
economic and development help.

Nonetheless, for the moment Chinese aid and investment in Palestine
remain insignificant. Questions about the PA’s domestic legitimacy and internal divisions among the Palestinians also present potential
obstacles to any efforts to kick-start negotiations.

Meanwhile, the trajectory of Sino-Israeli economic ties does not bode
well for Chinese leverage and influence with the Israeli government, either.

China is Israel’s third-largest trading partner globally. Trade volume increased from $50m in 1992 to $15bn in 2021. But US pressure on Israel
to downgrade ties with Beijing, as part of its global competition with
China, has changed this trend.

In 2018-2022, Israel’s exports to China stagnated at about $4.5bn.
Between 2018 and 2021, Israel’s imports from China also stagnated at
$10.5bn. In 2020, Israel set up an advisory committee to inspect
national security aspects of foreign investments — essentially to scan
deals with China as potential national security threats, per the US’s request. Chinese investments in Israel have slowed as a result and will continue to do so, undermining Beijing’s ability to use trade to bargain
for peace.

All of this, undergirded by the refusal of the current far-right Israeli government to talk with the Palestinians, means it is unlikely the
Chinese efforts will be fruitful in achieving peace between Palestinians
and Israelis.

Beijing is likely to continue to pursue mediation between Palestine and
Israel as doing so is consistent with its own interests even if nothing
is achieved.

Great diplomatic accomplishments tend to take place when expert
diplomats are presented with an exceptional geopolitical opportunity.
That was the case when China managed to broker a deal between Iran and
Saudi Arabia. While a diplomatic coup for China, the Iran-Saudi detente
was a product of both nations reevaluating how their long-simmering
enmity was impacting their actual interests. Many rounds of painstaking
talks in Baghdad had already created fertile soil for this achievement.

Such an opportunity does not seem evident on the Palestinian-Israeli
issue. China can’t change that.

The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Ahmadi Ali
Scholar of sanctions and economic statecraft
Ali Ahmadi is a scholar of sanctions and economic statecraft. He is an Executive Fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and an Analyst
at Gulf State Analytics.

Ahmed Alqarout
Global political economy analyst
Ahmed Alqarout is a global political economy expert with a focus on
great power competition and the political economy of conflicts in MENA.

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