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https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/02/asia/japan-south-korea-naval-shipbuilding-intl-hnk-ml-dst/index.html
South Korea Defense Ministry/AP
These may be the world’s best warships. And they’re not American
Analysis by Brad Lendon, CNN
Updated 1:31 PM EDT, Sat June 3, 2023
Seoul, South Korea
CNN
—
It’s a growing problem that has United States naval commanders
scratching their heads: How to keep up with China’s ever-expanding fleet
of warships.
Not only is China’s navy already the world’s largest, its numerical lead over the US is getting wider, with the head of the US Navy warning
recently that American shipyards simply can’t keep up. Some experts
estimate China can build three warships in the time it takes the US to
build one.
It is just one of the concerns, alongside Beijing’s increasing
aggression in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, that’s likely to be weighing on the mind of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin as he joins
top military figures from across the region at this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
The chance of a breakthrough on any of those issues this weekend appears
slim, not least because China has pointedly rejected a US proposal for
Austin to meet his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu at the forum.
But experts who spoke to CNN before the summit say a potential solution
to one of them – the Chinese fleet’s numerical advantage – is within reach, if the US is prepared to think outside the box.
Washington, they say, has something Beijing doesn’t: Allies in South
Korea and Japan who are building some of the highest spec – and
affordable – naval hardware on the oceans.
Buying ships from these countries, or even building US-designed vessels
in their shipyards, could be a cost-effective way of closing the gap
with China, they say.
Their warships are “certainly a match for their (Chinese) counterparts,” says Blake Herzinger, a research fellow at the United States Studies
Center in Australia, while Japan’s warship designers “are among the world’s best,” says Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at
the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii.
Both countries have mutual defense treaties with the US, so why doesn’t
the US team up with them to outbuild China?
The problem is, US law currently prevents its Navy from buying
foreign-built ships – even from allies – or from building its own ships
in foreign countries due to both security concerns and a desire to
protect America’s shipbuilding industry.
Schuster, Herzinger and others are among a growing body of experts who
say it may be time to rethink that law to give the US an edge in the
battle for the seas.
A challenger for China’s world-beating Type 055s
The Pentagon estimates China’s navy to have around 340 warships at
present, while the US has fewer than 300. It thinks the Chinese fleet
will grow to 400 in the next two years, while the US fleet will take
until 2045 to hit 350.
But it’s not just the increasing vastness of the Chinese navy that has
raised concerns. Some of the ships China is churning out arguably have
greater firepower than some of their US counterparts.
Analysts warn of intensifying arms race across Asia (November, 2021)
03:55 - Source: CNN
Take China’s Type 055, in many eyes the world’s premier destroyer.
Displacing 12,000 to 13,000 tons, the Type 055 is bigger than typical destroyers (it is nearer in size to the US Navy’s Ticonderoga class of cruisers) and packs a formidable punch.
It has 112 vertical launch system (VLS) cells that fire surface-to-air
and anti-ship missiles, which is more than the 96 on the newest of the
US Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. It also boasts sophisticated
radio and anti-submarine weapons systems.
And China is pumping them out. It began building the Type 055s in 2014
and recently commissioned its eighth, the Xianyang. The US’s work on its Zumwalt-class destroyers has been much slower; construction began five
years earlier, yet only two have entered service.
But some Western analysts say the Type 055 may have a peer in South
Korea’s Sejong the Great-class destroyers.
At 10,000 to 12,000 tons displacement, the Sejongs are slightly smaller
than China’s Type 055s, but they have more firepower, with 128 VLS cells
and weapons that include surface-to-air, anti-submarine and cruise missiles.
The three Sejongs, which cost about $925 million each, are the pride of
the South Korean fleet.
“With this one ship, (the South Korean Navy) can cope with multiple simultaneous situations – anti-aircraft, anti-ship, anti-submarine, anti-surface – and defend from ballistic missiles,” the country’s
Defense Media Agency says.
Retired South Korean Adm. Duk-ki Kim, the first person to captain a
Sejong, says it’s more than a match for China’s Type 055.
“China is focusing on quantity and price competitiveness rather than the quality of its vessels,” Kim, now vice president of the Korea
Association of Military Studies, told CNN.
High-spec, low cost
Japan, too, has “world class” destroyers, said Alessio Patalano,
professor of war and strategy at King’s College in London.
The country’s newest Maya-class destroyers are armed with 96 VLS cells
that can fire both anti-ballistic and anti-submarine missiles, while the “quality of its sensors and systems stands at the very top end of the spectrum,” according to Patalano. Last November, the Mayas demonstrated
their ability to destroy ballistic missiles traveling outside Earth’s atmosphere.
Those 96 VLS cells put the Mayas on par with the newest of the US
Arleigh Burkes, but there’s a crucial difference between them: The
Arleigh Burkes cost $2.2 billion; the Mayas cost a billion dollars less.
In other words, the Mayas represent both “quantity and quality”: They
are high-spec, (relatively) low cost and can roll off production lines
at speed.
“If Chinese shipbuilding is showing a remarkable capacity for mass production, Japan’s is leading the way in affordable quality on a scale larger than most naval powers, without sacrificing commissioning times.
That balance, and the experience in the philosophy, are a genuine edge,” Patalano said.
And it’s not just the Mayas. Take Japan’s Mogami-class frigates; speedy, stealthy 5,500-ton warships with 16 VLS cells that fire surface-to-air
and anti-ship missiles. All done with a crew of 90 and a price tag of
about $372 million each.
By contrast, the first of the US Navy’s under development
Constellation-class frigates are expected to cost three times as much
and require twice as many crew. That’s less than ideal given the US Navy
is having a hard time recruiting – the US vice chief of naval operations
has said it is likely to miss its recruiting goal by 6,000 this year –
though the Constellations are expected to have twice as many VLS cells
as the Mogamis.
Cost comparisons with China’s Type 055s are harder due to the opacity of
the Chinese system; estimates of their costs range anywhere from $925
million to $2.6 billion each.
An Asian secret weapon
So what’s making South Korean and Japanese shipyards so competitive?
Cost overruns, endemic in US defense contracting, are not common in
Japan, Schuster says, because – unlike the US – the country holds manufacturers to their estimates.
“A Japanese shipbuilder’s bid is an absolute. If they finish it below expected cost, they make a larger profit. If they encounter delays and mistakes, the builder has to correct it at their own expense,” Schuster
said.
That approach was “much wiser” than that of the US, he claims, pointing
to the alleged problems with Zumwalt-class destroyers and littoral
combat ships that have seen the Pentagon spend billions on platforms
that critics say the US Navy doesn’t know what to do with.
The US Navy’s three Zumwalt destroyers have priced out at about $8
billion each, but it’s unclear how they fit into the rest of the fleet.
Meanwhile, some of the US’s littoral combat ships, which cost more than
$350 million each, are expected to be decommissioned before they have
even served a third of their life span.
Time for a rethink?
All these Japanese and South Korean vessels are designed to incorporate
US technology, weapons, spy radars and the Aegis command and control system.
Partly this is so that the two navies can operate seamlessly alongside
their US counterpart, as they did in joint exercises earlier this year.
But then if the US, Japanese and South Korean ships use similar
technology and can operate together, why does the law prevent the US
from building some of its ships in Japanese and South Korean shipyards?
The prohibition isn’t just about security concerns. It’s also aimed at keeping shipbuilding jobs and expertise within the US.
In 2019, total economic activity associated with the US shipbuilding
industry accounted for nearly 400,000 jobs and contributed $42.4 billion
in GDP, according to the Maritime Administration, with 154 shipyards
spread across 29 states classified as active shipbuilders and more than
300 engaged in ship repairs or capable of building ships.
The US military is an important source of demand for these shipbuilders;
while less than 3% of the vessels delivered in 2020 went to US
government agencies, 14 of the 15 large deep-draft vessels went to a combination of the US Navy and the US Coast Guard.
Tough call to make
Any move that might be perceived as threatening such an important
industry would therefore be politically fraught. Shipbuilding
representatives argue more needs to be spent on the domestic industry,
rather than less, recently telling Congress the single biggest issue
facing shipyards was attracting and retaining a quality workforce,
according to USNI News.
US Navy spokesperson Travis Callaghan said, “The Navy currently has a significant number of ships under construction and on contract across
several shipyards. We have also made and continue to make significant investments in our shipyards to increase and maximize capacity. The Navy
is committed to providing a ready, modernized, and capable naval force
that continues to be the nation’s primary instrument of sea control both
now and into the future.”
There are also those analysts who, while admiring the shipbuilding
prowess of Japan and South Korea, say getting them to build ships for
the US would be a step too far.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, Nick Childs,
senior fellow for naval studies at the IISS, said US cooperation with
its allies is already shifting the trajectory of naval power in Asia
away from China.
There’s “a new phase of maritime balance” in the region that has it slowly edging back in Washington’s favor, Childs said. However, he
doesn’t think the answer is building US ships overseas.
“I think the answer is to learn from the way they do it rather than get
them to do it for you,” he said.
Still, proponents of outsourcing say employing the help of allies offers
a more immediate fix – and point out the US already outsources designs overseas; its Constellation-class frigates are based on an Italian
design and Japan has been mooted as a possible source for future blueprints.
But Schuster thinks designs aren’t enough – the US needs more ships now,
he says.
“Since shipyard availability is at a premium in the United States,
having a portion of that work done in Japan would address that problem
until America can refurbish and expand its shipyards – a 10-year process
in most defense analysts’ eyes,” Schuster said.
Retired South Korean admiral Kim thinks partnering on shipbuilding
offers everyone “a win-win.”
Herzinger, too, thinks it’s time to rethink the law.
Japan and South Korea “both build very high quality ships on time and on budget, both things (the US has) lost the ability to do,” Herzinger said.
CNN’s Haley Britzky, Gawon Bae, Jiwon Jeong and Moeri Karasawa
contributed to this report.
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