XPost: sci.military.naval, soc.history.war.misc

Sounds kind of questionable, and risky.

from
https://news.yahoo.com/three-weapons-could-break-russia-112521174.html

The three weapons which could break Russia this year

Ben Hodges
Tue, May 23, 2023 at 4:25 AM PDT·5 min read
A Romanian Air Force F- 16s military fighter jet, in front, and
Portuguese Air Force F- 16s military fighter jets participating in
Nato's Baltic Air Policing Mission operate over the Baltic Sea -
Mindaugas Kulbis/AP

Be in no doubt: the war in Ukraine could be over this year, with Russia defeated. All that is necessary is that we in the West give the
Ukrainians the weapons they need to win the fight. A lack of clarity on
our objective, particularly in the White House, is preventing effective
action. If we simply decide that we want the Ukrainians to win, and act accordingly, Russia will be defeated and driven from Ukrainian territory.

These are the weapons we should send, and this is how they would help
the Ukrainians win.

First is the Army Tactical Missile System, the ATACMS. This can be fired
from the Himars vehicles we have already sent to Ukraine. At the moment
the Ukrainians’ Himars are armed with the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), which can hit targets up to 90 km (56 miles) away:
ATACMS can reach 300 km (186 miles). A single ATACMS goes in the same
slot that takes six GMLRS.

ATACMS would change the war, exposing every square inch of occupied
Ukrainian territory, including the entire Crimea, to precision fire. We
should also get on and send the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb,
another longer-ranging weapon, from existing stocks rather than waiting
for new ones to be produced specially.

The Crimean peninsula is the decisive terrain of this war; Bakhmut is comparatively unimportant. As long as Russia occupies Crimea, Putin
controls the Azov Sea and threatens Odesa. The naval base of Sevastopol,
on Crimea’s southern tip, is home to Russia’s Black Sea fleet and allows Moscow to control access by Ukraine to the world’s oceans and shipping routes. Crimea is also an important logistic route for Putin’s forces in
the south of the country, as munitions, materiel and reinforcements can
move into the peninsula via the Kerch bridges and then onward to the
front lines.

A peace in which Russia continues to hold Crimea is a defeat for
Ukraine: the nation will not be able to rebuild itself if it is
effectively kept under siege. This would have implications across
Europe, as millions of refugees might be unable to return home if
Ukraine cannot rebuild.

But there are grounds for optimism. Zelensky and his generals have
pulled off a remarkable feat. At the same time as the Russians have been
fought to a standstill around Bakhmut, the Ukrainian high command has
managed to resist the temptation to pour in reinforcements. This has
taken nerves of steel but it has allowed a large amount of combat power
to be assembled. There are now three brigades equipped with Western
tanks and other weapons, and several more with original Ukrainian or
captured Russian armour, ready to mount an attack.

The tanks and armoured infantry need to be accompanied by engineering
support that can get them through Russian defences, and backed up by
heavy mobile artillery. Massive supplies of ammunition, fuel and spare
parts need to be in place.

As this force is applied, mobile air-defence batteries need to move
forward to protect the ground forces. But even more importantly,
Ukrainian air power needs to be increased, by giving them F-16 fighters
and the training and support needed to operate them. Given the Russian
air force’s vast superiority in numbers this might seem to be an
enormous task. But in fact Russian air power has turned out to be much
less effective than we thought, and one thing’s for sure: we
consistently overestimate how long it takes for the Ukrainians to learn
new techniques and employ new weapons.

It still won’t be a quick or simple matter to set up the systems needed
to operate a fleet of Western jets: the obvious answer here is to bring
in contractors, who can deliver the vital maintenance and other
essential support, and do so quickly.

The Ukrainians will soon be able to use their own planes and
Western-supplied ones to provide cover for their ground
counter-offensive. It will not take them long, if they can be supplied
with the right tools, to push back against Russian missile bombardment
and start to control their own skies.

This brings me to the next key weapon system we should be sending: the
Gray Eagle drone. This will allow the Ukrainians to deliver battlefield
air support without risking scarce pilots and jets. The Gray Eagle can
carry four Hellfire missiles, each of which can destroy a tank or other armoured vehicle.

With these capabilities in place, Ukraine will be able to mount an
armoured assault and cut the “land bridge”, the strip of coastal
territory linking Russia and Crimea. With ATACMS the advancing
Ukrainians will be able to strike the Sevastopol naval base and the Saky airbase, and drive the Russians out. It might make sense to leave the
Kerch bridges up for a least a while, as this will allow the Russians to
leave: if on the other hand Putin uses the bridges to reinforce, they
could be taken out.

The Western tanks that have been supplied, the Abrams, the Leopard and
the Challenger, are all excellent. But if you have a crew who are
excellent at operating a T-72, that may be the best tank to give them.
What the Ukrainians will not be doing, however, is mixing up different
vehicle types within units: each unit will use a single type to simplify maintenance, rearming and so on.

With the land bridge cut, and the Kerch bridge either knocked down or
left open as an avenue of retreat, it will be possible to push Russia
out of Crimea. It will not be easy, but with the ability to make
precision strikes over the whole area, and Russian air and sea power
forced off the peninsula, it can be done.

With Crimea in Ukrainian hands, I do not believe there will be much
desire in Moscow to fight on for the remaining parts of occupied Eastern Ukraine. The Donbas was primarily important as a springboard to link up
with Crimea.

The war can be won, and ended, this year: but only if we Westerners
agree that is what we want, and start acting like it.

Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges served as commanding general,
Unites States Army Europe. Previously he was a brigade commander during
the 2003 invasion of Iraq

comments include

milton
11 hours ago

Russia claims it can intercept Storm-shadow cruise missiles and there is
some evidence decoy missiles are needed so that the real ones can hit
their targets. I've also heard it is easier to intercept ATACMS than the
GMLRS. The point being, if ATACMS are both easier to intercept, can only
be fired 1/6 as many at a time (ie. you'll need 6x as many HIMARS to get
the same missile density), and need decoy missiles to be sure the real
ones hit their targets, they might not be as effective as people think.

IMHO Ukraine needs WAY more ammo. Even today, we hear they only fire
1/10th the amount the Russians do. Ok, ok, so they have better aim... so
give them MORE.


Alejandro
7 hours ago

Ok your comment already has some concern to it if you're starting if off
as "Russia claims." Russia claims a lot of things and 99% of the time,
it's false or a lie. Russia will always claim it can intercept anything
the west throws at it, their whole government is based off the notion
that they are at war with the west 24/7 so they always have to one up
the west. This war has already exposed that their military is not what
they projected to be, they've been badly exposed. Their cruise missiles
and hypersonic missiles were all hype. The Patriot Missile system showed
that they can be intercepted when Putin claimed their hypersonic missile couldn't be intercepted. They claimed their army was very powerful yet
they're getting punched in the face constantly and getting bloodied by a smaller neighbor. Russia isn't the force to be reckoned with like they
thought to be


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Snotwalker
11 hours ago
the only plus side of this war in Ukraine is our ability to
test/evaluate US weaponry in real battle. The bonus to this is not only
do WE see how effective Western weaponry is, CHINA sees how effective it
is. The Ukraine was is the best deterrent to a Taiwan invasion.

tn
11 hours ago
I've been saying this since they were asking for tanks. F16'S can and
should be on their wishlist, but it shouldn't be at the top. They don't
need a plane to fly a missile a little bit closer, we can just give them
longer range missiles

Michael J.
9 hours ago
China is watching this closely before they decide what to do with
Taiwan. We need to make sure Ukraine sends Russian soldiers back to
where they belong with their tails between their legs. If Russia is
allowed to win then Taiwan will become the next Hong Kong and the
Taiwanese will become as oppressed as the people of Hong Kong have been
since China's takeover in 1997.

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