XPost: sci.military.naval, soc.history.war.misc

from (go to citation to see graphics) https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/12/outplayed-by-ukraine-what-is-next-for-russias-navy-in-the-black-sea/

Click to Enlarge. The Russian Navy is largely confined to port, but
coming months could see a number of scenarios whereby it becomes more
active. Largely these will be forced upon it by Ukraine.

Outplayed By Ukraine: What Is Next For Russia’s Navy In The Black Sea?
The Russian Navy is still, on paper, more powerful than its Ukrainian counterpart. But its dominance has been eroded and it is currently
mostly confined to port. But things could change. Here are some
scenarios to watch for.
H I Sutton 19 Dec 2022

When the invasion started, it was unthinkable that the Ukraine would
have the mighty Russian Navy virtually confined to port. Yet since then
the Russian Navy has experienced a series of setbacks and emerging
threats which has done exactly this.

Ukraine’s sea mines, anti-ship missiles and now ‘maritime drones’ have contributed to them playing a less and less active role. But that is not
to say that this will continue this way.

Making firm predictions in war is for fools. But some high-level
scenarios can be played out to consider the ways things might go over
the next few months.

The Current Situation: Fleet In Being
Russia’s naval base at Sevastopol in southern Crimea remains the main
naval presence in the war. Despite this Russian Navy warships barely
patrol most of the northern Black Sea. This is in stark contrast to the beginning of the war when they were patrolling within sight of Odesa and performing aggressive ‘amphibious demonstrations’ with landing ships.

The first reason for this reversal was anti-ship missiles. These
demonstrated their worth against the cruiser Moskva, but it was the
arrival of Western supplied Harpoon anti-ship missiles which sealed the
deal.

And then in September Ukraine’s indigenous ‘maritime drones’ started showing up. These small uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) are loaded with explosives they are relatively cheap and difficult to counter. We saw
the number of patrols reduce and warships avoiding anchoring beyond the protection of the harbor.

The now famous October 29 maritime drone attack they failed to score any
major damage. But their threat is real and is likely a primary driver in reshaping Russian naval operations. Now when warships and submarines
come and go they are guarded by fast boats and helicopters.

The Russian Navy is not completely absent from the Black Sea. But apart
from individual warships and submarines venturing out to launch Kalibr
cruise missiles, they are now playing a very low-key role in the war.
The priority appears to be on force preservation; exposing themselves to Ukraine’s weapons runs risks for little gain.

The Freezing Arena
As the famously harsh Ukrainian winter sets in fighting on land will get
slower as soldiers seek warmth before glory. At sea too the winter
should be expected to slow things down. The drop in temperatures,
combined with local geography will bring with it sea ice.

The extent and thickness varies by year but we can expect it in the
northern Black Sea, near the Kerch bridge and in the Sea of Azov. This
could shape, literally, naval operations over the next few months.

Scenario 1: Restart Attacks On Merchant Ships
One of the Russian Navy’s first moves in the invasion was to blockade Ukrainian ports to stop trade. Russia declared a prohibition on
navigation in the North-Western part of the Black Sea down to the
parallel 45-21 N from 0400 hours on 24 February 2022. Several
third-country merchant ships were then attacked and, while not admitted,
there is little doubt who did it. For the first few months this blockade
was total.

However merchant trade was restored in July via political means. Since
then Russia has threatened this deal to pressure Ukraine not to attack Sevastopol. But it no longer seems to have the political leverage to do
so. If Russia wants to disrupt or stop this trade it now has few
options, but those do involve the Navy.

Thanks to Ukraine’s anti-ship missiles, any attempts at a
stop-and-search type blockade in the Northern Black Sea would be highly dangerous. This leaves ‘kinetic’ means whereby the ships are physically attacked. Aircraft, warships and submarines could be used. But the
perpetrator would be clear and there would likely be a political cost.

So the Russian Navy may consider using covert means to sabotage the
‘grain corridor’. In this scenario ships might be targeted in Sevastopol using limpet mines. Or by carefully laid sea mines outside the harbor.
It might be obvious who is doing it, yet it would fall below the
threshold of attribution, this limiting political consequences.

Scenario 2: Pushed To Defend Crimea
If Ukraine advances south from Kherson the Russian Navy may be drawn on
to provide direct support to its troops. This could include fire support
and ferrying supplies. But the threats to its warships will be severe.

Maritime drones, mines, aerial drones and land based short range
missiles like British supplied Brimstone could take a toll. And if the
ships venture further from shore to avoid these they could sail into a
Harpoon trap. But if Ukraine does get a foothold into Crimea Russian
commanders may see no choice but to accept the risks.

Scenario 3: Sevastopol Becomes Even More Unsafe
One of the reasons that Russian commanders may commit their warships to
the fighting further north is because Sevastopol itself could come into
range of systems such as HIMARS. This would be a showstopper and could
result in abandonment of the port. Even before then, Ukraine getting
more or better weapons able to reach the port will be a serious concern.
In these scenarios we could see warships pushed to smaller ports on
Crimea’s southern coast. And ultimately Russia’s own Black Sea coast.
The other naval base at Novorossiysk is already relatively full so
secondary ports would have to be used.

Other Points
There are of course numerous other scenarios worth considering.
Ukrainian advances reaching the Sea of Azov is of particular interest.
This would be similar to scenario 2 (Pushed To Defend Crimea). Another
point worth pondering is if Russia may attempt an amphibious landing.
The threat of this is now much less than it was months ago, but they do
still have landing ships. Overall the prospects of such a move would not
be good.

As the Naval aspects of the war slip out of the headlines, we have to
remember that it is not over. The Russian Navy could still find itself
sailing into harms way.

TAGS Black Sea Russian Navy Ukraine

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