• NASA DART mission: Spacecraft to be crashed head-on with an asteroid on

    From a425couple@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 21 09:11:58 2022
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein

    from https://www.cnbctv18.com/science/nasa-dart-mission-spacecraft-to-be-crashed-head-on-with-an-asteroid-dimorphos-didymos-on-september-26-14701801.htm

    NASA DART mission: Spacecraft to be crashed head-on with an asteroid on September 26 to redirect it

    Read Time
    5 Min(s) Read
    By PTI
    Sep 12, 2022, 11:04 AM IST (Published)
    MINI

    If the DART mission succeeds, humanity will have demonstrated a
    destructive capability vastly exceeding that of nuclear weapons.
    Allowing private corporations to map and alter asteroid orbits would
    also be extremely dangerous.

    The DART mission to redirect an asteroid is billed as potentially planet-saving. But in the wrong hands it has seriously destructive
    potential. In September 2022 an event of planetary importance will take
    place. With the assistance of a privately funded rocket, NASA's DART
    mission will test the feasibility of redirecting an asteroid.

    The mission is, in NASA's words, to test and validate a method to
    protect Earth in case of an asteroid impact threat. NASA's spacecraft
    will crash head-on into a small asteroid called Dimorphos, with the aim
    of altering its orbit around a larger asteroid, Didymos.
    The excitement about such heroic possibilities is rooted in long-held assumptions about expansion into space. Going higher must mean getting
    better.
    However, the consequences of the mission are much less positive than
    space enthusiasts and many others believe. Given the immense violence
    potential of fast-moving space objects, the question of whether asteroid redirection is desirable roughly approximates to the question of whether
    space activities increase or decrease the likelihood of war.
    In their 1964 book Islands in Space: The Challenge of the Planetoids, astronomers Dandridge Cole and Donald Cox envisioned manoeuvring
    asteroids to serve as the ultimate deterrent, a planetoid bomb. At the
    time, these plans were advanced as solutions to the threat of nuclear
    war, specifically to the vulnerabilities of nuclear weapons based on Earth. Never attempted, these schemes were shockingly extreme, even among the apocalyptic military speculations of the 1950s and 1960s.
    Cole and Cox wrote that a captured planetoid of between 2 kilometres and
    8 kilometres in diameter would have the impact energy equivalent to
    several million megatons, would create a crater 30 to 80 kilometres in diameter, and would destroy whole countries through Earth shock effects.
    They hastened to add that such devastation would not be anything near as
    bad as a general nuclear war because there would be no nuclear fallout
    carried by the winds to all parts of the Earth.
    A captured planetoid would be the ideal deterrent system, they said,
    because it could not be de-orbited in less than several hours and would
    not be feared by a potential enemy as a surprise attack weapon.
    Furthermore, an onrushing planetoid could not be intercepted or
    deflected even if detected several days before impact.
    Such an attack might even be carried out without much danger of
    retaliation because it would be difficult to distinguish from a natural catastrophe.
    Although this scheme suggests criminal insanity, it fits comfortably
    alongside other fortunately abortive and outlawed Cold War
    investigations of geophysical weaponisation, such as harnessing
    hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis for military purposes.
    Interstate military rivalry propelled much of human space activity. So
    why do we believe conflicts will not be carried into space? People who
    believe in the possibility of overcoming rivalries on the highly
    interdependent Earth, where large-scale violence is effectively
    suicidal, are deemed utopian.
    But these same rival states exploring the manipulation of asteroids
    equipped with titanic violence potential is, somehow, no problem. For
    this reason, the alteration of the orbits of asteroids by any single
    government or corporation should be explicitly outlawed.
    However, while international organisations will travel to the asteroid
    as observers, the DART mission is solely the preserve of US
    organisations. How, when and by whom this technology is developed has first-order implications for the human species and the fate of the Earth.
    The technologies to divert an asteroid away from the Earth are
    essentially identical to those needed to direct objects towards the Earth.
    If the DART mission succeeds, humanity will have demonstrated a
    destructive capability vastly exceeding that of nuclear weapons.
    Allowing private corporations to map and alter asteroid orbits would
    also be extremely dangerous.
    Given asteroids' inherent mass-destructive potential, allowing private companies answerable to only a handful of corporate owners to develop
    this technology would be like allowing private firms to develop the
    hydrogen bomb in the 1950s.
    However, completely abandoning the mapping and alteration of asteroidal
    orbits is unwise because the collision of such bodies with the Earth is inevitable. This knowledge and technology are vital. Asteroid mapping
    and diversion should therefore be undertaken only by a consortium of
    leading states on Earth.
    A deflection consortium could be assigned the task, given the sole legal authority, and equipped with the resources to develop the capacity to
    defend the planet from cosmic bombardment. Such an effort would fall far
    short of bringing a world government into existence, reassuring those
    who fear control by stealth.
    The enduring mutual suspicion of states would impede the asteroid
    consortium from becoming the seed of a world state. It could be staffed
    and operated not by a distinct body of international civil servants but
    rather by members of the militaries of the contributing states.
    Like any human venture, a strategy of military cooperation for planetary security would have its own risks and potential paths of breakdown. If
    the planetary protection consortium were to disintegrate, the violence
    capacity of asteroids would be possessed by several states.
    But as long as this agency remained solely focused on its narrow
    mission, and no private actors were permitted to engage in these
    activities, states would have a strong incentive to sustain the
    arrangement. Human beings have long dreamed of exploring the farthest
    reaches of space.
    Space is particularly prone to dreamy assumptions, beguiling illusions
    and stark disorientations. But dream-walking into space is sleepwalking
    into space. Space expansion should be recognised as having not only a
    plethora of bad proposals but also a frightening potential for evil.
    Also Read: NASA defers Artemis I launch to Sept 23-27 — why those dates (Edited by : Sangam Singh)
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  • From Jim Wilkins@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 21 19:52:08 2022
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein

    "a425couple" wrote in message news:jJGWK.474995$iiS8.214675@fx17.iad...

    If the DART mission succeeds, humanity will have demonstrated a
    destructive capability vastly exceeding that of nuclear weapons.
    Allowing private corporations to map and alter asteroid orbits would
    also be extremely dangerous.

    ---------------------

    The impact of DART will make at best a -very- small change, like a BB
    against a battleship. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Asteroid_Redirection_Test

    "The impact of the 500 kg (1,100 lb)[26] DART at 6.6 km/s (4.1 mi/s) will produce an estimated velocity change on the order of 0.4 mm/s, which leads
    to a small change in trajectory of the asteroid system, but over time, it
    leads to a large shift of path."

    Striking the enemy where you expect them to be ten or twenty years from now isn't a game changer. They'll have plenty of time to hit the asteroid themselves, space Ping-Pong.

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/nasa-analysis-earth-is-safe-from-asteroid-apophis-for-100-plus-years

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  • From R Kym Horsell@21:1/5 to a425couple@hotmail.com on Thu Sep 22 01:19:20 2022
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein

    In alt.astronomy a425couple <a425couple@hotmail.com> wrote:
    from https://www.cnbctv18.com/science/nasa-dart-mission-spacecraft-to-be-crashed-head-on-with-an-asteroid-dimorphos-didymos-on-september-26-14701801.htm

    NASA DART mission: Spacecraft to be crashed head-on with an asteroid on September 26 to redirect it

    Read Time
    5 Min(s) Read
    By PTI
    Sep 12, 2022, 11:04 AM IST (Published)
    MINI

    If the DART mission succeeds, humanity will have demonstrated a
    destructive capability vastly exceeding that of nuclear weapons.
    Allowing private corporations to map and alter asteroid orbits would
    also be extremely dangerous.

    The DART mission to redirect an asteroid is billed as potentially planet-saving. But in the wrong hands it has seriously destructive
    potential. In September 2022 an event of planetary importance will take place. With the assistance of a privately funded rocket, NASA's DART
    mission will test the feasibility of redirecting an asteroid.

    The mission is, in NASA's words, to test and validate a method to
    protect Earth in case of an asteroid impact threat. NASA's spacecraft
    will crash head-on into a small asteroid called Dimorphos, with the aim
    of altering its orbit around a larger asteroid, Didymos.

    Just some numbers for the people at home:

    dimorphos is around 1% of the mass of its "primary" didymos.
    the object of the exercise is to change the mutual orbit
    that is extremely low speed.
    The period is 12 hrs with a semi-maj axis of only 2 km -- i.e. around
    10% of walking speed.
    The impact is expected to be a good fraction of the DART's orbital
    speed of around 7 km/sec so the impulse will be around 1%
    of the momentum of the relevant orbit.
    You should see a significant change in the mutal orbit.
    If they get the hit in real good. :)

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  • From R Kym Horsell@21:1/5 to R Kym Horsell on Thu Sep 22 03:36:05 2022
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein

    In alt.astronomy R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> wrote:
    In alt.astronomy a425couple <a425couple@hotmail.com> wrote:
    from
    https://www.cnbctv18.com/science/nasa-dart-mission-spacecraft-to-be-crashed-head-on-with-an-asteroid-dimorphos-didymos-on-september-26-14701801.htm

    NASA DART mission: Spacecraft to be crashed head-on with an asteroid on
    September 26 to redirect it

    Read Time
    5 Min(s) Read
    By PTI
    Sep 12, 2022, 11:04 AM IST (Published)
    MINI

    If the DART mission succeeds, humanity will have demonstrated a
    destructive capability vastly exceeding that of nuclear weapons.
    Allowing private corporations to map and alter asteroid orbits would
    also be extremely dangerous.
    ...

    More nummas.

    By adjusting (e.g. "we hope") the orbital speed of the pair by around 1%, adding in the non-linearities related to Kepler's laws, and remembering
    that a small change integrated over time can get pretty large, we
    see that the impact is liable to result in quite large discrepencies
    between where the smaller asteroid will be even within 1/2 a day.

    A side-on impact will adjust the orbital speed the most.
    Just for fun I've run the 2 scenarios of speeding up and slowing down
    the orbit by 1% of orbital speed.

    Orbital speed +1%
    Time Out of position
    (h) (km)
    1 1.02944
    2 2.65322
    3 5.13221
    4 8.54131
    5 12.902
    6 18.2214
    7 24.5016
    8 31.7434
    9 39.9465
    10 49.1103
    11 59.234
    12 70.3161 <-- even after small number of hrs
    smaller moon is out of position 70 km

    Orbital speed -1%
    1 1.00256
    2 2.56019
    3 4.92435
    4 8.17017
    5 12.3199
    6 17.3809
    7 23.3556
    8 30.2449
    9 38.0488
    10 46.7664
    11 56.3972
    12 66.9403


    So the moral is -- it small numbers are only small in context of
    what an "average" number is.

    Often on A.GW hillbillies talk about how small the annual change in
    atmosphere is due to fossil burning. Or how small CO2 as a percent.
    They forget the "small number" for CO2 is responsible for life on earth. Doubling that over 150 years is likely a big deal.

    Ditto for a small change in orbital speed. It adds up over time.
    While the semi maj axis is not changed much the resulting change will
    make e.g. an asteroid on the way to earth "fall short" or "overshoot"
    the expected impact point by a big number of km.

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  • From Daniel65@21:1/5 to R Kym Horsell on Thu Sep 22 20:35:33 2022
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein

    R Kym Horsell wrote on 22/9/22 11:19 am:
    In alt.astronomy a425couple <a425couple@hotmail.com> wrote:
    from
    https://www.cnbctv18.com/science/nasa-dart-mission-spacecraft-to-be-crashed-head-on-with-an-asteroid-dimorphos-didymos-on-september-26-14701801.htm

    NASA DART mission: Spacecraft to be crashed head-on with an asteroid on
    September 26 to redirect it

    Read Time
    5 Min(s) Read
    By PTI
    Sep 12, 2022, 11:04 AM IST (Published)
    MINI

    If the DART mission succeeds, humanity will have demonstrated a
    destructive capability vastly exceeding that of nuclear weapons.
    Allowing private corporations to map and alter asteroid orbits would
    also be extremely dangerous.

    The DART mission to redirect an asteroid is billed as potentially
    planet-saving. But in the wrong hands it has seriously destructive
    potential. In September 2022 an event of planetary importance will take
    place. With the assistance of a privately funded rocket, NASA's DART
    mission will test the feasibility of redirecting an asteroid.

    The mission is, in NASA's words, to test and validate a method to
    protect Earth in case of an asteroid impact threat. NASA's spacecraft
    will crash head-on into a small asteroid called Dimorphos, with the aim
    of altering its orbit around a larger asteroid, Didymos.

    Just some numbers for the people at home:

    dimorphos is around 1% of the mass of its "primary" didymos.
    the object of the exercise is to change the mutual orbit
    that is extremely low speed.
    The period is 12 hrs with a semi-maj axis of only 2 km -- i.e. around
    10% of walking speed.

    "semi-maj axis" ... the long "radius" (sort of) of the ellipse.

    2km semi-maj axis ... so about 4km end-to-end

    So that would make the 'orbit length' about 12km depending on semi-minor
    axis!

    12km in about 12 hrs, approx 1km/h

    If 1km/h is approx 10% of your walking speed, you're cracking a pretty
    decent walking pace (10km/h)!! ;-P
    --
    Daniel

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  • From R Kym Horsell@21:1/5 to daniel47@nomail.afraid.org on Thu Sep 22 11:32:58 2022
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein

    In alt.astronomy Daniel65 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> wrote:
    ...
    The period is 12 hrs with a semi-maj axis of only 2 km -- i.e. around
    10% of walking speed.
    "semi-maj axis" ... the long "radius" (sort of) of the ellipse.
    2km semi-maj axis ... so about 4km end-to-end
    So that would make the 'orbit length' about 12km depending on semi-minor axis!
    12km in about 12 hrs, approx 1km/h
    If 1km/h is approx 10% of your walking speed, you're cracking a pretty
    decent walking pace (10km/h)!! ;-P

    Moral: errors add.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From R Kym Horsell@21:1/5 to daniel47@nomail.afraid.org on Fri Sep 23 10:05:40 2022
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein

    In alt.astronomy Daniel65 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> wrote:
    R Kym Horsell wrote on 22/9/22 9:32 pm:
    In alt.astronomy Daniel65 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> wrote:
    ...
    The period is 12 hrs with a semi-maj axis of only 2 km -- i.e. around
    10% of walking speed.
    "semi-maj axis" ... the long "radius" (sort of) of the ellipse.
    2km semi-maj axis ... so about 4km end-to-end
    So that would make the 'orbit length' about 12km depending on semi-minor >>> axis!
    12km in about 12 hrs, approx 1km/h
    If 1km/h is approx 10% of your walking speed, you're cracking a pretty
    decent walking pace (10km/h)!! ;-P
    Moral: errors add.
    Yeah!! That's why working in 'approx' is much better!! ;-P

    Pretty interesting for a guy that uses 6 for 2pi. :)

    What you need to reverse engineer what I posted is interval artithmetic.
    Since all the numbers are whole or rounded it's kinda obvious you need
    to decide whether the results make sense within the likely range of values. E.g. 2/12 is not 1/6 but the interval allowing "2" to be any number between
    1 and 3 and "12" to be any number between 11 and 13.
    Using the normal value of 2pi then 7 km/hr lives inside the interval.
    According to medical authorities you are suppoed to walk 7 km/hr for
    1/2 an hour a day for good health.

    --
    How to weigh a pig:
    1. Take a sturdy plank and carefully balance it on a sawhorse.
    2. Tie the pig to one end of the plank.
    3. Pile rocks of approximately the same size on the other end of the plank
    until it is evenly balanced.
    4. Guess the weight of the rocks.

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  • From Daniel65@21:1/5 to R Kym Horsell on Fri Sep 23 19:57:38 2022
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein

    R Kym Horsell wrote on 22/9/22 9:32 pm:
    In alt.astronomy Daniel65 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> wrote:
    ...
    The period is 12 hrs with a semi-maj axis of only 2 km -- i.e. around
    10% of walking speed.
    "semi-maj axis" ... the long "radius" (sort of) of the ellipse.
    2km semi-maj axis ... so about 4km end-to-end
    So that would make the 'orbit length' about 12km depending on semi-minor
    axis!
    12km in about 12 hrs, approx 1km/h
    If 1km/h is approx 10% of your walking speed, you're cracking a pretty
    decent walking pace (10km/h)!! ;-P

    Moral: errors add.

    Yeah!! That's why working in 'approx' is much better!! ;-P
    --
    Daniel

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Daniel65@21:1/5 to R Kym Horsell on Sat Sep 24 21:25:04 2022
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein

    R Kym Horsell wrote on 23/9/22 8:05 pm:
    In alt.astronomy Daniel65 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> wrote:
    R Kym Horsell wrote on 22/9/22 9:32 pm:
    In alt.astronomy Daniel65 <daniel47@nomail.afraid.org> wrote:
    ...
    The period is 12 hrs with a semi-maj axis of only 2 km --
    i.e. around 10% of walking speed.
    "semi-maj axis" ... the long "radius" (sort of) of the ellipse.
    2km semi-maj axis ... so about 4km end-to-end So that would
    make the 'orbit length' about 12km depending on semi-minor
    axis! 12km in about 12 hrs, approx 1km/h If 1km/h is approx 10%
    of your walking speed, you're cracking a pretty decent walking
    pace (10km/h)!! ;-P
    Moral: errors add.
    Yeah!! That's why working in 'approx' is much better!! ;-P

    Pretty interesting for a guy that uses 6 for 2pi. :)

    What you need to reverse engineer what I posted is interval
    artithmetic. Since all the numbers are whole or rounded it's kinda
    obvious you need to decide whether the results make sense within the
    likely range of values. E.g. 2/12 is not 1/6

    Umm! In the world in which I live, 2/12 *IS* 1/6.

    but the interval allowing "2" to be any number between 1 and 3 and
    "12" to be any number between 11 and 13.

    the interval allowing "2" to be any number between 1.5 and 2.5 and "12"
    to be any number between 11.5 and 12.5.

    Using the normal value of 2pi then 7 km/hr lives inside the
    interval.

    2pi approximates 6.28, which I think means 7km/hr lives *outside* the
    interval. (or, at least, outside my interval)

    According to medical authorities you are suppoed to walk 7 km/hr for
    1/2 an hour a day for good health.

    30 mins of exercise a day, sure, but I can't recall there ever being a
    SPEED attached to it!!
    --
    Daniel

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