On 2/27/23 14:45, Darryl Johnson wrote:

On 2023-02-27 1:15 PM, a425couple wrote:

On 2/26/23 09:04, XYXPDQ wrote:

Ver/RB

In F1 you just assume that last year is preview until happily

proven wrong.

Yes. In the last 25 years that has been pretty true.

Same with forecasting the weather. Tomorrow is more than likely to be

similar to today.


True enough now, for both those cases.

But the timing of peak and ebbs was different in the
past in F1.
see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Formula_One_World_Drivers%27_Champions

For the 10 years from 1960 thru 1969,
nobody repeated with back to back WDC wins.

For the 10 years from 1970 thru 1979,
nobody repeated with back to back WDC wins.

It was not until the 1980s,
for the 10 years from 1980 thru 1989,
only Alain Prost won 2 years in a row
(with an amazing underdog performance in 1986).

Then, in the 10 years from 1990 thru 1999,
we had Senna win in 1990, and repeat in 1991,
and Michael Schumacher in 1994, and repeat in 1995,
Mika Hakkinen in 1998 and repeat in 1999.

And after that the ebbs and flows became long term.
Michael Schumacher won the WDC 5 times straight 2000 thru 2005.
And Alonso won it back to back 2005 and 2006.

And then from 2010 thru 2013 Sebastion Vettel won it 4 years straight.
Then Lewis Hamilton won it 2 years 2014 and 2015, one year off,
then came back to win it 4 more years straight.

Why have the 'cycles' of peaks changed from frequent to
multiple year trends?

I think one reason is the bigger and bigger money in F1.
In the 1960's and 1970's a fresh new idea or innovation
could win the WDC. But then others saw and copied.
Now big money in research shows results, and these
results build on each other, year, after year.

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