• Re: More unsettled Climate Science

    From mINE109@21:1/5 to ScottW on Sun Jan 21 14:55:06 2024
    On 1/21/24 10:56 AM, ScottW wrote:
    The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship has been a fundamental principle
    in climate science, suggesting that with every 1°C rise in
    temperature, atmospheric moisture should increase by about 7%.

    Surprisingly, the research found that over dry and semi-arid regions, moisture levels have remained constant or even declined, as observed
    in the Southwestern United States.

    "This is contrary to all climate model simulations in which it rises
    at a rate close to theoretical expectations, even over dry regions,"
    the authors wrote in the new paper. (end snip)

    You may note that water vapor is a "green house" gas and this lack in
    the rise with rising temps is an issue with current climate
    projections.

    “It is a really tricky problem to solve, because we don't have global observations of all the processes that matter to tell us about how water
    is being transferred from the land surface to the atmosphere," [Simpson]
    said. "But we absolutely need to figure out what's going wrong because
    the situation is not what we expected and could have very serious
    implications for the future.”

    Paper found here:

    https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2302480120#:~

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  • From Trevor Wilson@21:1/5 to ScottW on Mon Jan 22 09:00:34 2024
    On 22/01/2024 3:56 am, ScottW wrote:
    The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship has been a fundamental principle in climate science, suggesting that with every 1°C rise in temperature, atmospheric moisture should increase by about 7%.

    Surprisingly, the research found that over dry and semi-arid regions, moisture levels have remained constant or even declined, as observed in the Southwestern United States.

    "This is contrary to all climate model simulations in which it rises at a rate close to theoretical expectations, even over dry regions," the authors wrote in the new paper.
    (end snip)

    You may note that water vapor is a "green house" gas and this lack in the rise with rising temps is an issue with current climate projections.

    ScottW

    **The climate of this planet is exceedingly complex and not perfectly understood. It makes perfect sense to spend a lot more money to assess
    the situation.

    HOWEVER, there is one thing that is clear and unequivocal:

    The temperature of the planet is rising and rising fast and CO2 is the
    major driver that remains under human control.

    --
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  • From mINE109@21:1/5 to ScottW on Mon Jan 22 14:56:01 2024
    On 1/22/24 12:00 PM, ScottW wrote:
    On Sunday, January 21, 2024 at 2:00:39 PM UTC-8, Trevor Wilson wrote:
    On 22/01/2024 3:56 am, ScottW wrote:
    The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship has been a fundamental principle in climate science, suggesting that with every 1°C rise in temperature, atmospheric moisture should increase by about 7%.

    Surprisingly, the research found that over dry and semi-arid regions, moisture levels have remained constant or even declined, as observed in the Southwestern United States.

    "This is contrary to all climate model simulations in which it rises at a rate close to theoretical expectations, even over dry regions," the authors wrote in the new paper.
    (end snip)

    You may note that water vapor is a "green house" gas and this lack in the rise with rising temps is an issue with current climate projections.

    ScottW
    **The climate of this planet is exceedingly complex and not perfectly
    understood. It makes perfect sense to spend a lot more money to assess
    the situation.

    HOWEVER, there is one thing that is clear and unequivocal:

    The temperature of the planet is rising and rising fast and CO2 is the
    major driver that remains under human control.

    Assumed increases in water vapor is a big factor in the prediction of catastrophic tipping.
    And it's not rising near as fast as predicted. Nor are glaciers gone or snow no more as predicted.

    https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/why-do-we-blame-climate-change-carbon-dioxide-when-water-vapor-much-more-common-greenhouse

    [W]ater vapor differs in one crucial way from other greenhouse gases
    like CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide. Those greenhouse gases are always
    gases (at least when they’re in our atmosphere). Water isn’t. It can
    turn from a gas to a liquid at temperatures and pressures very common in
    our atmosphere, and so it frequently does. When it’s colder it falls
    from the air as rain or snow; when it’s hotter it evaporates and rises
    up as a gas again.

    “This process is so rapid that, on average, a molecule of water resides
    in the atmosphere for only about two weeks,” says Emanuel.

    This means extra water we put into the atmosphere simply doesn’t stick
    around long enough to alter the climate; you don’t have to worry about warming the Earth every time you boil a kettle. And there’s really no
    amount of water vapor we could emit that would change this. “If we were
    to magically double the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, in
    roughly two weeks the excess water would rain and snow back into oceans,
    ice sheets, rivers, lakes, and groundwater,” Emanuel says.

    End quote.

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  • From Trevor Wilson@21:1/5 to ScottW on Tue Jan 23 09:05:13 2024
    On 23/01/2024 5:00 am, ScottW wrote:
    On Sunday, January 21, 2024 at 2:00:39 PM UTC-8, Trevor Wilson wrote:
    On 22/01/2024 3:56 am, ScottW wrote:
    The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship has been a fundamental principle in climate science, suggesting that with every 1°C rise in temperature, atmospheric moisture should increase by about 7%.

    Surprisingly, the research found that over dry and semi-arid regions, moisture levels have remained constant or even declined, as observed in the Southwestern United States.

    "This is contrary to all climate model simulations in which it rises at a rate close to theoretical expectations, even over dry regions," the authors wrote in the new paper.
    (end snip)

    You may note that water vapor is a "green house" gas and this lack in the rise with rising temps is an issue with current climate projections.

    ScottW
    **The climate of this planet is exceedingly complex and not perfectly
    understood. It makes perfect sense to spend a lot more money to assess
    the situation.

    HOWEVER, there is one thing that is clear and unequivocal:

    The temperature of the planet is rising and rising fast and CO2 is the
    major driver that remains under human control.

    Assumed increases in water vapor is a big factor in the prediction of catastrophic tipping.
    And it's not rising near as fast as predicted. Nor are glaciers gone or snow no more as predicted.

    ScottW

    **You STILL fail to understand the reality. CO2 and methane are the big problems. Water vapour is not something we can control (directly). In
    some areas of the planet (deserts, Arctic and Antarctic regions) CO2 and methane are vastly more influential than water vapour.

    We need to address the problem of human release of GHGs.

    --
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