• DL may reopen in late April

    From Darrell Jeffress@21:1/5 to Rudeney on Wed Mar 10 17:28:26 2021
    On 3/10/2021 6:42 AM, Rudeney wrote:
    On 3/9/2021 3:58 PM, Patty Winter wrote:
    At least, that's Bob Chapek's current thinking:

    https://twitter.com/DisneyParksNews/status/1369358327562477568/photo/1

     I wonder whether they'll adjust that scheduled based on when OC
    enters the Orange tier, which would allow 25% capacity vs. only 15%
    in the Red tier. 15% seems like a skimpy amount to make any money on.
    But if OC moves into Red soon, they could progress to Orange by early
    April, assuming good news on vaccinations and infections.

    If they follow the science, things should open at least that soon, but
    it could be accelerated even more.  Despite Fauci's claims that we must
    have at least 80% population (a.k.a. herd) immunity, most scientists
    consider it to be more like 60%.  Even so, that's not a line-in-the-dirt number because as the immune population increases, the daily infection
    curve takes a steep dive. Even at 30% immunity the curve will have a
    strong downward trend.

    At this point, we have nearly 18% of the population at least one dose of vaccine.  10% of the population has been confirmed as being infected by COVID-19.  This puts total immunity somewhere around 28%, except that
    some of the 10% who had COVID-19 are also included in the number
    vaccinated, so let's say conservatively we have 20% confirmed immunity
    at this point.  Based on statistical analysis of antibody testing
    results, scientists believe that there are at least twice as many people
    with antibodies and no positive test as have had test-confirmed
    COVID-19.  That means that instead of 10% having immunity through
    infection, it's more like 30%.  Add in the nearly 18% vaccinated,
    account for an overlap, and were probably in the 40% immunity range.

    That puts us 2/3 of the way to "population immunity".  You can see this
    in the graphs today.  Better yet, the curve isn't a one-to-one drop with increases in immunity.  Because one actively infected person usually
    passes the virus to more than one other person, each infection that we prevent drops the infection curve by more than one other person.  It
    becomes a logarithmic function, which means a very steep downward curve.

    This is the good news, which you probably won't hear about "in the news" because giving people hope doesn't sell - drama sells.

    Rodney this will be interesting to watch because of a wrinkle with the
    mRNA "vaccines". (I suspect you already know everything I'm about to say.)

    Herd immunity works because the virus "runs out of places to land",
    which gradually attenuates the spread. It's like the experiment with the
    room full of mousetraps and ping-pong balls. As people develop immunity,
    the virus will effectively bounce off them and fall to the floor.
    Eventually the virus stops circulating because there aren't enough
    carriers to keep it moving.

    But these mRNA vaccines don't work that way - the recipients can still
    contract the virus. And they can carry it and spread it. What they won't
    do - allegedly - is develop symptoms if they contract the virus.

    If this is actually what happens, then the mRNA shots will not
    contribute to lessening the geometric rate of spread, or they'll
    contribute significantly less. They'll just reduce the fraction of hospitalizations and severe cases. And hence the calls to "keep wearing
    your mask even after the shot."

    The other shots I'm aware of - J&J, AstraZeneca, Medicago/GSK - aren't mRNA-based, which suggest they'd contribute to herd immunity in the more traditional way. But the biggest contributor figures to be people who
    contract asymptomatic cases of Covid, hence developing antibodies and
    T-cells, often without even knowing they had it. In other words,
    immunity the old-fashioned way.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rudeney@21:1/5 to Darrell Jeffress on Sun Mar 14 19:30:33 2021
    On 3/10/2021 7:28 PM, Darrell Jeffress wrote:
    On 3/10/2021 6:42 AM, Rudeney wrote:
    On 3/9/2021 3:58 PM, Patty Winter wrote:
    At least, that's Bob Chapek's current thinking:

    https://twitter.com/DisneyParksNews/status/1369358327562477568/photo/1



    I wonder whether they'll adjust that scheduled based on when OC
    enters the Orange tier, which would allow 25% capacity vs. only
    15% in the Red tier. 15% seems like a skimpy amount to make any
    money on. But if OC moves into Red soon, they could progress to
    Orange by early April, assuming good news on vaccinations and
    infections.

    If they follow the science, things should open at least that soon,
    but it could be accelerated even more. Despite Fauci's claims that
    we must have at least 80% population (a.k.a. herd) immunity, most
    scientists consider it to be more like 60%. Even so, that's not a
    line-in-the-dirt number because as the immune population
    increases, the daily infection curve takes a steep dive. Even at
    30% immunity the curve will have a strong downward trend.

    At this point, we have nearly 18% of the population at least one
    dose of vaccine. 10% of the population has been confirmed as being
    infected by COVID-19. This puts total immunity somewhere around
    28%, except that some of the 10% who had COVID-19 are also included
    in the number vaccinated, so let's say conservatively we have 20%
    confirmed immunity at this point. Based on statistical analysis of
    antibody testing results, scientists believe that there are at
    least twice as many people with antibodies and no positive test as
    have had test-confirmed COVID-19. That means that instead of 10%
    having immunity through infection, it's more like 30%. Add in the
    nearly 18% vaccinated, account for an overlap, and were probably in
    the 40% immunity range.

    That puts us 2/3 of the way to "population immunity". You can see
    this in the graphs today. Better yet, the curve isn't a
    one-to-one drop with increases in immunity. Because one actively
    infected person usually passes the virus to more than one other
    person, each infection that we prevent drops the infection curve by
    more than one other person. It becomes a logarithmic function,
    which means a very steep downward curve.

    This is the good news, which you probably won't hear about "in the
    news" because giving people hope doesn't sell - drama sells.

    Rodney this will be interesting to watch because of a wrinkle with
    the mRNA "vaccines". (I suspect you already know everything I'm
    about to say.)

    Herd immunity works because the virus "runs out of places to land",
    which gradually attenuates the spread. It's like the experiment with
    the room full of mousetraps and ping-pong balls. As people develop
    immunity, the virus will effectively bounce off them and fall to the
    floor. Eventually the virus stops circulating because there aren't
    enough carriers to keep it moving.

    But these mRNA vaccines don't work that way - the recipients can
    still contract the virus. And they can carry it and spread it. What
    they won't do - allegedly - is develop symptoms if they contract the
    virus.

    If this is actually what happens, then the mRNA shots will not
    contribute to lessening the geometric rate of spread, or they'll
    contribute significantly less. They'll just reduce the fraction of hospitalizations and severe cases. And hence the calls to "keep
    wearing your mask even after the shot."

    The other shots I'm aware of - J&J, AstraZeneca, Medicago/GSK -
    aren't mRNA-based, which suggest they'd contribute to herd immunity
    in the more traditional way. But the biggest contributor figures to
    be people who contract asymptomatic cases of Covid, hence developing antibodies and T-cells, often without even knowing they had it. In
    other words, immunity the old-fashioned way.


    That is not my understand of mRNA vaccines. What I understand is that
    they offer the exact same type of immunity as an inactive-virus vaccine
    (or even exposure to the live virus, i.e. having been infected), they
    just get there through a differ path. With an inactive-virus vaccine
    (or exposure), your cells must "learn" to create the proper immunity.
    With mRNA, the cells are "programmed" to create the immunity. It was
    explained to me like a scene from The Matrix: You can spend the time to
    learn and practice and become proficient in Jujitsu (immunity through exposure/normal vaccine), or, you can have the program downloaded (mRNA vaccine).


    So in any case, if a person's immune cells have the ability to fight the
    virus, it will not multiply and grow in them and thus they will not
    spread the virus any more than it already is in the environment.


    --

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