On Mon, 01 Jan 2024 21:03:05 +1300, Crash <
nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:
Much has happened in 2023, including major surprises and predictable >outcomes.
The predictable outcome was that Labour/Greens government was defeated
at the polls.
The major surprise is that we have a 3-way coalition government that
includes NZF. That is a first most notably because when NZF have held
the balance of power in the past they had always leveraged that into
being the sole minor party in a coalition. We are unlikely to know
exactly how this (3-part coalition) was achieved. We will at some
time in the future be able to assess its durability. I remain
skeptical because Winston has not in the past worked as part of a
3-way team where the other 2 are political adversaries.
The coalition agreement clearly sets expectations. There are elements
of controversy but all points of action were based on clearly
enunciated policy from each of the 3 parties. So the controversy
stems not from decisions taken but from the opposition parties as is
to be expected.
No, many of the policies were not well known, and even if they are now
well known were not at the time voting was taking place. The three way coalition was not generally anticipated, and voted supporting both
major parties may well have hoped NZ First would not get enough votes
to be in government - many believe that they received enough votes
purely to act as a brake on ACT in particular but also National
The real test for 2024 is whether the government sticks to the agenda
defined in the coalition agreement and whether Winston continues to
accept his (diminished) role as part of a 3-party Government. Part of
this will rest with whatever leadership skills that PM Luxon can bring
to bear to keep Winston under control as a bit-part player. David
Seymour is more predicable to play a constructive role in similar >circumstances to Winston.
The coalition agreement was made essentially between three people - it
should not be regarded as sanctioned by voters - on many policies in
that agreement there may well be a majority of New Zealanders opposed
- so much for democracy!
The key to this government though is to carry through with its 100-day >agenda. Whether this takes longer than 100 days is not a concern to
me - it just has to get all this stuff done in addition to making the
normal decisions in Government.
No, the key is having a government that properly considers legislation
as the detail is developed, and assesses whether agreements made in
haste should be pushed through, or changed in a minor or major way, or
dropped. A Democracy expects intelligent decision making. It is clear
that knowledge on financial issue was sadly lacking by key players in
the new government, and it is clear there will be some changes to at
least some of the expressed policies - we may be critical of the lack
of understanding on which some policies were developed, but applaud
sensible changes or delays that are now appropriate.
Labour has a period of political instability ahead - normal for a
party that has faced election defeat and associated issues with
leadership change and departure of senior MPs. That more have not
resigned yet is not indicative of a commitment to see through a term
in opposition but is indicative of a reluctance to resign until future >alternative employment has been secured.
That is part of the Democratic process - hopefully the departure of
Ardern will not be as destructive for Labour as the departure of Key
was to National, but that remains to be seen. This government does not
have a particularly strong mandate for radical action; I suspect the
prospect of a early election or at least a close election in three
years will give an incentive for opposition parties (Labour / Green /
Te Pati Maori) to work together in a positive way
Looking at the Greens, in recent years James Shaw has stood out not as
a co-leader but as an outlier. He is male, hetro and has a
respectable history in the corporate world. Do the Greens have
another such MP? I don't think so and as such his tenure as a
co-leader is surely limited. The Greens have always been the
watermelon party but in recent years the green skin has been getting
thinner and the flesh of the party a deeper shade of political red.
Perhaps he is also in the job market.
He has also been a stabilising Leader of a party which has some
members taking strong positions on particular issues rather than a
coordinated broad policy front. He has been a Leader for a long time
however, but at present there is not a clear leader in waiting to
replace him.
So 2024 will be interesting, but I will be a bit more relaxed when the
Water Services Entities Act is repealed. A bonus would be the
deferment of tax bracket indexation until a substantial reduction in >Government debt has been made, but I acknowledge my wishful thinking
on this.
We have not yet seen the water policies that National promised to put
into place - it is possible that 30% increases in rates will be
unpopular; especially as such increases will not be needed in all
areas . . .
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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