• Asumptions, and history

    From Gordon@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 30 07:22:34 2023
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301018348/tova-podcast-national-will-have-deaths-of-8000-kiwis-on-their-hands--labour

    As i understand things National have made the case to halt Labours plans on
    the smoke free front as National argues that this will just increase the
    crime associated with the legal supply drying up.

    We only need to turn to recent history and the era of prohibition to see
    what happened when the sale of alcohol was illegal.

    The assumption that Labour's plan would have caused all people to stop maybe false. Conversely the Governments assumption maybe totally incorrect.
    We will never know as we can not do a trail and then go back in time and try another trial.

    Then we have from the article

    "Modelling, commissioned by the Ministry of Health, into the potential
    effects of Labour’s smokefree changes found 8000 deaths could be avoided
    and the health system could be saved $1.3 billion over 20 years."

    These are the same people who modelled away and gave us the covid numbers.

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