https://tinyurl.com/mr2bvjkm

This is reasonable analysis from Tova O'Brien (she is not normally a
political commentator I read). The conjecture she makes about the relationships between Luxon, Peters and Seymour seems credible at
least in the current interest.

Luxon has never met Peters in person in Parliament before, having been
elected for the first time when for the second time NZF missed the
party-vote threshold.

Peters holds the whip-hand because National needs him to govern, and
this was only finalised with the final counts from the Electoral
Commission. If National/Act could govern without Peters then we would certainly have a government now because Luxon could make a
take-it-or-leave-it offer to Peters with no consequences for
rejection. Peters with the whip hand in any form of negotiation
brings out the showman/shyster lawyer that Peters might otherwise have
been.

So we wait while, inevitably, Peters tries to string out negotiations
to satisfy himself that he went to the brink before concluding a deal.
Luxon is finding out the very hard way what happens when a National
leader does not rule out NZF before an election. Looking at the
voting numbers NZF got 173,554 votes for 6 MPs and 6.08% of the party
vote - around 30,000 votes per MP. If NZF had missed the threshold
(ie around 144,000 votes or less) all 6 list MPs would have gone to
other parties. My point is that there is a small margin of votes that
got NZ over the 5% threshold, and they may not have got those votes if
National had ruled NZF out, because NZF would then have had no
perceived 'handbrake on the government to justify their presence.

However we have what we have - the government we voted for will have
the impediment of a handbrake operated by Winston Peters should he
choose to do so.


--
Crash McBash

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On 2023-11-14, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

https://tinyurl.com/mr2bvjkm

This is reasonable analysis from Tova O'Brien (she is not normally a political commentator I read). The conjecture she makes about the relationships between Luxon, Peters and Seymour seems credible at
least in the current interest.

Luxon has never met Peters in person in Parliament before, having been elected for the first time when for the second time NZF missed the
party-vote threshold.

Peters holds the whip-hand because National needs him to govern, and
this was only finalised with the final counts from the Electoral
Commission. If National/Act could govern without Peters then we would certainly have a government now because Luxon could make a take-it-or-leave-it offer to Peters with no consequences for
rejection. Peters with the whip hand in any form of negotiation
brings out the showman/shyster lawyer that Peters might otherwise have
been.

So we wait while, inevitably, Peters tries to string out negotiations
to satisfy himself that he went to the brink before concluding a deal.
Luxon is finding out the very hard way what happens when a National
leader does not rule out NZF before an election.

No party is going to rule out any other party if a coalition with that party allows them to govern. They are in it to govern and if the "hanbrake" is on, read not a great deal in the agreement, then so be it.

Looking at the
voting numbers NZF got 173,554 votes for 6 MPs and 6.08% of the party
vote - around 30,000 votes per MP. If NZF had missed the threshold
(ie around 144,000 votes or less) all 6 list MPs would have gone to
other parties. My point is that there is a small margin of votes that
got NZ over the 5% threshold, and they may not have got those votes if National had ruled NZF out,

On the otherhand they could have got more as the swing voters needed to
ensure that NZF would be stronger and thus be more influencial.

because NZF would then have had no
perceived 'handbrake on the government to justify their presence.

However we have what we have - the government we voted for will have
the impediment of a handbrake operated by Winston Peters should he
choose to do so.

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On Tue, 14 Nov 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

Looking at the voting numbers NZF got 173,554 votes for 6 MPs

So you can't count to 8.

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On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 04:46:35 GMT, willynilly@qwert.com (Willy Nilly)
wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

Looking at the voting numbers NZF got 173,554 votes for 6 MPs

So you can't count to 8.

My mistake - it is indeed 8, but that changes the votes per MP to
21,700 or so. The other numbers are unchanged, as are the major
conclusion I posted.


--
Crash McBash

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On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 18:43:27 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 04:46:35 GMT, willynilly@qwert.com (Willy Nilly)
wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

Looking at the voting numbers NZF got 173,554 votes for 6 MPs

So you can't count to 8.

My mistake - it is indeed 8, but that changes the votes per MP to
21,700 or so. The other numbers are unchanged, as are the major
conclusion I posted.

Conclusions are becoming hard for some to achieve: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301007984/tova-obrien-christopher-luxons-inexperience-costs-him-international-power-play

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Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 18:43:27 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 04:46:35 GMT, willynilly@qwert.com (Willy Nilly)
wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

Looking at the voting numbers NZF got 173,554 votes for 6 MPs

So you can't count to 8.

My mistake - it is indeed 8, but that changes the votes per MP to
21,700 or so. The other numbers are unchanged, as are the major
conclusion I posted.

Conclusions are becoming hard for some to achieve: >https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301007984/tova-obrien-christopher-luxons-inexperience-costs-him-international-power-play

An article from a journalist in a zero decent news environemnt -she was just searching for something to say.

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On Wed, 15 Nov 2023 15:07:43 +1300, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com>
wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 18:43:27 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 04:46:35 GMT, willynilly@qwert.com (Willy Nilly)
wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

Looking at the voting numbers NZF got 173,554 votes for 6 MPs

So you can't count to 8.

My mistake - it is indeed 8, but that changes the votes per MP to
21,700 or so. The other numbers are unchanged, as are the major
conclusion I posted.

Conclusions are becoming hard for some to achieve: >https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301007984/tova-obrien-christopher-luxons-inexperience-costs-him-international-power-play

That article was what I linked to in my OP. Willy snipped it out.


--
Crash McBash

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On Wed, 15 Nov 2023 02:56:45 -0000 (UTC), Tony
<lizandtony@orcon.net.nz> wrote:

Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 18:43:27 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> >>wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 04:46:35 GMT, willynilly@qwert.com (Willy Nilly) >>>wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

Looking at the voting numbers NZF got 173,554 votes for 6 MPs

So you can't count to 8.

My mistake - it is indeed 8, but that changes the votes per MP to
21,700 or so. The other numbers are unchanged, as are the major >>>conclusion I posted.

Conclusions are becoming hard for some to achieve: >>https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301007984/tova-obrien-christopher-luxons-inexperience-costs-him-international-power-play

An article from a journalist in a zero decent news environemnt -she was just >searching for something to say.

Indeed it cab be looked at as just a summary of what so many people
are saying - it is a very disappointing lack of performance from the
putative PM-elect, isn't it Tony.

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On Wed, 15 Nov 2023 15:45:36 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:

On Wed, 15 Nov 2023 15:07:43 +1300, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com>
wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 18:43:27 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> >>wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 04:46:35 GMT, willynilly@qwert.com (Willy Nilly) >>>wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

Looking at the voting numbers NZF got 173,554 votes for 6 MPs

So you can't count to 8.

My mistake - it is indeed 8, but that changes the votes per MP to
21,700 or so. The other numbers are unchanged, as are the major >>>conclusion I posted.

Conclusions are becoming hard for some to achieve: >>https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301007984/tova-obrien-christopher-luxons-inexperience-costs-him-international-power-play

That article was what I linked to in my OP. Willy snipped it out.

Sorry Crash; I do find it annoying when people delete portions of
posts to try and shut down information they would rather not know -
although I may not have recognise the tinyurl as corresponding to the
link I gave.

Speculation only goes so far of course, and may say as much about the
author as it does about the political entities that seem to have
forgotten criticism of the previous government when some matters did
not happen as quickly as they expected. In the absence of anything
happening, speculation is all that is left.

I found these commentaries interesting as well: http://werewolf.co.nz/2023/11/gordon-campbell-on-the-third-person-in-this-political-marriage/
https://twitter.com/watershitdown/status/1721238198322598158 https://www.politik.co.nz/luxons-evasiveness-says-it-all/ (but most
of it paywalled)

And for something different to celebrate: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/waikato-news/news/coromandels-state-highway-25a-to-open-before-christmas-three-months-early/MDQXIZOYAVBCLN6H2GRWOZIQTM/

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Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> wrote:

On Wed, 15 Nov 2023 02:56:45 -0000 (UTC), Tony
<lizandtony@orcon.net.nz> wrote:

Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 18:43:27 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> >>>wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023 04:46:35 GMT, willynilly@qwert.com (Willy Nilly) >>>>wrote:

On Tue, 14 Nov 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

Looking at the voting numbers NZF got 173,554 votes for 6 MPs

So you can't count to 8.

My mistake - it is indeed 8, but that changes the votes per MP to >>>>21,700 or so. The other numbers are unchanged, as are the major >>>>conclusion I posted.

Conclusions are becoming hard for some to achieve: >>>https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301007984/tova-obrien-christopher-luxons-inexperience-costs-him-international-power-play

An article from a journalist in a zero decent news environemnt -she was just >>searching for something to say.

Indeed it cab be looked at as just a summary of what so many people
are saying - it is a very disappointing lack of performance from the
putative PM-elect, isn't it Tony.

No. It is not. Except in the minds of idiots and bigots.

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