So NZF now has only one coalition possibility - with National - every
other party has ruled him out or he has ruled them out.

We have seen how Winston performs when he has the numbers crucial to
forming a Government. Recently (2017) Labour were forced to accept a
coalition with NZF and a confidence-and-supply agreement with the
Greens. While Labour needed both NZF and the Greens, only NZF could
negotiate with National as well as Labour so they had the upper hand
in bargaining.

Luxon can and should rule out NZF. To do so eliminates the concept
that a party vote for NZF is potentially a vote for a National-led
government. If National joins the others in ruling out a coalition
with NZF then a party vote for NZF is strategically pointless. If
neither National nor Labour can get a Parliamentary majority without
NZF then the option is available to conclude a confidence-and-supply
agreement with NZF. This means that either National or Labour can
govern, but NZF are not part of that Government. If NZF then votes
against the government on anything, the government can ask the GG to
dissolve Parliament and call another general election.

My bet is that Luxon is simply waiting for Peters to say or do
something during the election campaign that gives Luxon a reason to
rule NZF out with maximum dramatic impact.


--
Crash McBash

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thu, 31 Aug 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

Luxon can and should rule out NZF.

-- National supporter -- check.
-- suicide wish -- check.

At the rate you're going, you'll get a Labour-National coalition.
That's right, vote for National, win, get Labour.

Obviously, in post-election manoeuvering, NZ First will be courted by
National, Crash McBashes notwithstanding.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 2023-08-31, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

So NZF now has only one coalition possibility - with National - every
other party has ruled him out or he has ruled them out.

We have seen how Winston performs when he has the numbers crucial to
forming a Government. Recently (2017) Labour were forced to accept a coalition with NZF and a confidence-and-supply agreement with the
Greens. While Labour needed both NZF and the Greens, only NZF could negotiate with National as well as Labour so they had the upper hand
in bargaining.

Luxon can and should rule out NZF. To do so eliminates the concept
that a party vote for NZF is potentially a vote for a National-led government. If National joins the others in ruling out a coalition
with NZF then a party vote for NZF is strategically pointless. If
neither National nor Labour can get a Parliamentary majority without
NZF then the option is available to conclude a confidence-and-supply agreement with NZF. This means that either National or Labour can
govern, but NZF are not part of that Government. If NZF then votes
against the government on anything, the government can ask the GG to dissolve Parliament and call another general election.

My bet is that Luxon is simply waiting for Peters to say or do
something during the election campaign that gives Luxon a reason to
rule NZF out with maximum dramatic impact.

To me it seems that National/Luxon does not want to play his hand as a) he might not have to b) he needs to see what NZF has to offer for the given situation. c) playing his hand now might handicap him later, at best it
see him in a poor light should he have to "accept" NZF help.

Remember we are seeing the possible election outcomes as an "outsider". All parties have the same objective, to get elected.

Also when talking National, is this a shorthand for National/ACT?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Thu, 31 Aug 2023 04:13:33 GMT, willynilly@qwert.com (Willy Nilly)
wrote:

On Thu, 31 Aug 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

Luxon can and should rule out NZF.

-- National supporter -- check.
-- suicide wish -- check.

?? not sure where you get this in the context of my post.

At the rate you're going, you'll get a Labour-National coalition.
That's right, vote for National, win, get Labour.

Labour has ruled this out.

Obviously, in post-election manoeuvering, NZ First will be courted by >National, Crash McBashes notwithstanding.

Really? Why not form a minority government instead, followed by
another election at the most opportunistic time (applies to both
Labour and National).


--
Crash McBash

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Thu, 31 Aug 2023, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:

On Thu, 31 Aug 2023, willynilly@qwert.com (Willy Nilly) wrote:

At the rate you're going, you'll get a Labour-National coalition.
That's right, vote for National, win, get Labour.

Labour has ruled this out.

So you believe Labour's word on this? How about anything else they
say? Why are they trustworthy on this one?

What would you rather, Winston or Three Waters?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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