https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-why-nzs-life-saving-elimination-strategy-didnt-come-with-bounce-back-in-deaths/GTZOMCHDHNB4XGRYPMHJYJO2YA/

The lockdowns gave us time to wait for vaccines, but they also meant
that we have not suffered as much long term as some other countries.
From the article:


Otago University researchers have estimated that, had the country not
largely succeeded at keeping the virus at bay for the pandemic’s first
two years, thousands of Kiwis would have died.

They calculated a US or UK experience would have translated, per
capita, to 19,900 and 13,700 more deaths here respectively over that
period.

Now, a Medical Research Institute of New Zealand (MRINZ) study has put mortality rates under the lens once more, to answer whether
elimination resulted in a much-speculated “rebound” in deaths of all
kinds.

Its findings, published in prestigious scientific journal The Lancet,
suggest there’s been no such major effect since December 2021, when
the arrival of Delta and our vaccination roll-out brought an end to elimination.

Using Stats NZ data, the researchers found that stamping out Covid-19
brought about an 11 per cent reduction in “all-cause” mortality over a
30-week period in 2020 - a figure contrasting dramatically with other
countries that were over-run by the virus at that time."

and

"“New Zealand has been a country of considerable global interest in
view of its elimination strategy for Covid-19, which prevented the
high rates of mortality from Covid-19 experienced by most other
countries,” MRINZ director and study author Professor Richard Beasley
said.

“What this study has shown is that the benefits have been maintained
long term, even after relaxation of most of the public health
measures.”

Fellow author, and MRINZ’s Covid-19 programme lead, Dr Thomas Hills,
said the patterns were “informative” for guiding public health
measures for future pandemics.

It follows an earlier analysis showing how New Zealand was the only
one of four territories that managed to shift from a zero-Covid policy
while keeping excess deaths low.

In that paper, Hong Kong researchers compared rates of excess
mortality in New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and Singapore as each
shifted to living with the virus.

While Singapore, South Korea and Australia had rises in excess
mortality of 20 to 40 per cent after the transition, New Zealand’s
rate stayed within 10 per cent – something the study authors partly
attributed to an “ultra-high” vaccination rate among older people.

Meanwhile, another major study has reviewed international scientific
evidence on the effectiveness of “non-pharmaceutical interventions”
used in the pandemic, ranging from lockdowns and border restrictions,
to masking, social distancing and contact tracing.

Using New Zealand as a key case study, its UK authors found these
measures granted limited protection on their own, but when combined,
were “unequivocally effective in reducing the spread of infections”
while vaccines and anti-virals were being developed."

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sun, 27 Aug 2023 20:53:27 +1200, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com>
wrote:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-why-nzs-life-saving-elimination-strategy-didnt-come-with-bounce-back-in-deaths/GTZOMCHDHNB4XGRYPMHJYJO2YA/

The lockdowns gave us time to wait for vaccines, but they also meant
that we have not suffered as much long term as some other countries.
From the article:

Otago University researchers have estimated that, had the country not
largely succeeded at keeping the virus at bay for the pandemic’s first
two years, thousands of Kiwis would have died.

They calculated a US or UK experience would have translated, per
capita, to 19,900 and 13,700 more deaths here respectively over that
period.

Now, a Medical Research Institute of New Zealand (MRINZ) study has put >mortality rates under the lens once more, to answer whether
elimination resulted in a much-speculated “rebound” in deaths of all
kinds.

Its findings, published in prestigious scientific journal The Lancet,
suggest there’s been no such major effect since December 2021, when
the arrival of Delta and our vaccination roll-out brought an end to >elimination.

Using Stats NZ data, the researchers found that stamping out Covid-19
brought about an 11 per cent reduction in “all-cause” mortality over a >30-week period in 2020 - a figure contrasting dramatically with other >countries that were over-run by the virus at that time."

and

"“New Zealand has been a country of considerable global interest in
view of its elimination strategy for Covid-19, which prevented the
high rates of mortality from Covid-19 experienced by most other
countries,” MRINZ director and study author Professor Richard Beasley
said.

“What this study has shown is that the benefits have been maintained
long term, even after relaxation of most of the public health
measures.”

Fellow author, and MRINZ’s Covid-19 programme lead, Dr Thomas Hills,
said the patterns were “informative” for guiding public health
measures for future pandemics.

It follows an earlier analysis showing how New Zealand was the only
one of four territories that managed to shift from a zero-Covid policy
while keeping excess deaths low.

In that paper, Hong Kong researchers compared rates of excess
mortality in New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and Singapore as each >shifted to living with the virus.

While Singapore, South Korea and Australia had rises in excess
mortality of 20 to 40 per cent after the transition, New Zealand’s
rate stayed within 10 per cent – something the study authors partly >attributed to an “ultra-high” vaccination rate among older people.

Meanwhile, another major study has reviewed international scientific
evidence on the effectiveness of “non-pharmaceutical interventions”
used in the pandemic, ranging from lockdowns and border restrictions,
to masking, social distancing and contact tracing.

Using New Zealand as a key case study, its UK authors found these
measures granted limited protection on their own, but when combined,
were “unequivocally effective in reducing the spread of infections”
while vaccines and anti-virals were being developed."

Excellent promotion Rich but there are major deficiencies in the
reporting that help explain why the 'Chris Hipkins Government' will
never make use of this material. There is only a mention the
mortality impact of the pandemic - no analysis of anything else. Come
to that, in 2020 Labour campaigned on their pandemic record but in
2023 there is no mention from Labour of the pandemic. Go figure.


--
Crash McBash

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sun, 27 Aug 2023 21:15:19 +1200, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:

On Sun, 27 Aug 2023 20:53:27 +1200, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com>
wrote:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-why-nzs-life-saving-elimination-strategy-didnt-come-with-bounce-back-in-deaths/GTZOMCHDHNB4XGRYPMHJYJO2YA/

The lockdowns gave us time to wait for vaccines, but they also meant
that we have not suffered as much long term as some other countries.
From the article:


Otago University researchers have estimated that, had the country not >>largely succeeded at keeping the virus at bay for the pandemic’s first
two years, thousands of Kiwis would have died.

They calculated a US or UK experience would have translated, per
capita, to 19,900 and 13,700 more deaths here respectively over that >>period.

Now, a Medical Research Institute of New Zealand (MRINZ) study has put >>mortality rates under the lens once more, to answer whether
elimination resulted in a much-speculated “rebound” in deaths of all
kinds.

Its findings, published in prestigious scientific journal The Lancet, >>suggest there’s been no such major effect since December 2021, when
the arrival of Delta and our vaccination roll-out brought an end to >>elimination.

Using Stats NZ data, the researchers found that stamping out Covid-19 >>brought about an 11 per cent reduction in “all-cause” mortality over a >>30-week period in 2020 - a figure contrasting dramatically with other >>countries that were over-run by the virus at that time."

and

"“New Zealand has been a country of considerable global interest in
view of its elimination strategy for Covid-19, which prevented the
high rates of mortality from Covid-19 experienced by most other
countries,” MRINZ director and study author Professor Richard Beasley
said.

“What this study has shown is that the benefits have been maintained
long term, even after relaxation of most of the public health
measures.”

Fellow author, and MRINZ’s Covid-19 programme lead, Dr Thomas Hills,
said the patterns were “informative” for guiding public health
measures for future pandemics.

It follows an earlier analysis showing how New Zealand was the only
one of four territories that managed to shift from a zero-Covid policy >>while keeping excess deaths low.

In that paper, Hong Kong researchers compared rates of excess
mortality in New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and Singapore as each >>shifted to living with the virus.

While Singapore, South Korea and Australia had rises in excess
mortality of 20 to 40 per cent after the transition, New Zealand’s
rate stayed within 10 per cent – something the study authors partly >>attributed to an “ultra-high” vaccination rate among older people.

Meanwhile, another major study has reviewed international scientific >>evidence on the effectiveness of “non-pharmaceutical interventions”
used in the pandemic, ranging from lockdowns and border restrictions,
to masking, social distancing and contact tracing.

Using New Zealand as a key case study, its UK authors found these
measures granted limited protection on their own, but when combined,
were “unequivocally effective in reducing the spread of infections”
while vaccines and anti-virals were being developed."

Excellent promotion Rich but there are major deficiencies in the
reporting that help explain why the 'Chris Hipkins Government' will
never make use of this material. There is only a mention the
mortality impact of the pandemic - no analysis of anything else. Come
to that, in 2020 Labour campaigned on their pandemic record but in
2023 there is no mention from Labour of the pandemic. Go figure.

The results have in part been available for some time - from the
international tables of excess deaths I had estimated around 14,000
extra deaths had we followed the policies of the USA or UK - the
article says they think that would have been 19,000; but perhaps more importantly it says that we have had fewer "post covid'' problems -
and I suspect that includes long covid.

Specific policies are of use for potential future pandemics, but you
are correct that we all hope they will be irrelevant to the next
government; it does however highlight that the policies adopted by New
Zealand were based on good medical and statistical evidence, good
processes (by and large - these were new experiences); and if you want
to get political about it, the policies consistently advocated by
Opposition parties would have given us close to at least Australian
experience but probably closer to USA / UK experiences. Being prepared
to act quickly while also harnessing technical experts to investigate
and give good advice is a positive that can be linked firmly to Labour
and Green; those parties had better priorities (lives before commerce)
and were more prepared to act for the benefit of the country as a
whole rather than particular lobby groups - we were lucky not to have
had a National-led government.

You are correct that many New Zealanders think Covid is behind us and
are irritated by reminders (like current deaths and long covid cases)
that it is not yet behind us, but the floods and slips; the
importation of inflation; problems with world markets for our exports,
our good public sector capital position are all issues where Labour
policies have been good for New Zealand. Many of the big problems are
being fixed, albeit that some, like high inequality and high poverty
levels are likely to take another 20 years to get us back to an equal opportunity situation, and that may well be delayed by a change of
government - National no longer campaign on equal opportunity.

Both parties have to deal (in different ways) with the increasing
number of nutters - from ACT with its candidates belonging to
conspiracy groups, National wanting the votes of the anti-vaxxers but
not wanting to support their views; but Labour and the Greens needing
to cope with the nutters that have fallen for the ''distrust all
governments" line, that has been encouraged by the right; some is a
USA influence with their nutty and money dominated politics that have
nearly destroyed their ability to have stable government.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)