On Tuesday, 17 January 2023 at 09:38:58 UTC+13, Gordon wrote:

Stuff asks the question Has violent crime gone up under labour?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-whole-truth/130965380/the-whole-truth-has-violent-crime-gone-up-under-labour

National is stating "“Violent crime is on track to increase by 40%
under Labour.”

Stuff then gets 31% increase for crime ending October 2022. This
gives us another year so on a pro rata the 31% , gives us 37.2%.
Close enough for the 40% figure.

Stuff also says that the 31% increase is a great deal lower than the 40%. To my this implies that 31% figure is okay ? What ever the figure it is most unsatisfactory.

Interesting that The Whole Truth series has returned. Welcome to election year.

Can't compare the 31% to the 40% as that's for the prior year against a rising trend. At the end of the day, Stuff calculated a 38% rise for 2022 vs 40% from Goldsmith. Close enough, and a clear rise in violent crime.

You'd have to be really dumb shit to not expect a rise in crime when the government is actively emptying the prisons.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 16 Jan 2023 20:38:55 GMT, Gordon <Gordon@leaf.net.nz> wrote:

Stuff asks the question Has violent crime gone up under labour?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-whole-truth/130965380/the-whole-truth-has-violent-crime-gone-up-under-labour

National is stating "�Violent crime is on track to increase by 40%
under Labour.�

Stuff then gets 31% increase for crime ending October 2022. This
gives us another year so on a pro rata the 31% , gives us 37.2%.
Close enough for the 40% figure.

Stuff also says that the 31% increase is a great deal lower than the 40%. To >my this implies that 31% figure is okay ? What ever the figure it is most >unsatisfactory.

Interesting that The Whole Truth series has returned. Welcome to election >year.

I agree - the series is good for New Zealand. It helps us identify
when statistics are being misused, or selectively publicised.

The article points out that this is not confirmed data - it does
include a projection for the current year, that National rounded their projection up from 38% to 40%, and ignored population increase. While
minor, this is indicative of careful political selection of numbers.
It is also interesting that the particular statistic used excludes
sexual assault or aggravated robbery - with the latter being one of
the crimes National has been much more excited about than the
statistic they used - we can only presume that they got a better story
by leaving it out.

The cause of the increase is also interesting - Covid is mentioned,
but the number of 501 deportees from Australia is not - but National
offer no suggestions for what they would do in response to what they
regard as an alarming statistic.

National's press release tries to make the point that this indicates
that they believe it shows that sentences should be retained at
current levels for these crimes. The Government is seeking advice on
the likely effect of some specific changes, but none of those are
directly linked to the narrow group of crimes National is using. We
do know that the "Three Strikes" law which labour did remove had been
found to be manifestly unjust in some of the small number of cases
that it applied to - but there is evidence that long sentences can
result in high levels of re-offending, and much higher long term costs
for little benefit to public security.

We shall await a considered government response to the issues that
they have asked for work to be done on - to make decisions before
understanding consequences is the only indication of what National
would do - and that does nothing for the crime statistics that they
used.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 16 Jan 2023 20:38:55 GMT, Gordon <Gordon@leaf.net.nz> wrote:

Stuff asks the question Has violent crime gone up under labour?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-whole-truth/130965380/the-whole-truth-has-violent-crime-gone-up-under-labour

National is stating "�Violent crime is on track to increase by 40%
under Labour.�

Stuff then gets 31% increase for crime ending October 2022. This
gives us another year so on a pro rata the 31% , gives us 37.2%.
Close enough for the 40% figure.

Stuff also says that the 31% increase is a great deal lower than the 40%. To >my this implies that 31% figure is okay ? What ever the figure it is most >unsatisfactory.

Interesting that The Whole Truth series has returned. Welcome to election >year.

An interesting article and valuable in analysing the statistics quoted
by a political party. Clearly National are trying to frame a problem
with increasing 'serious crime' during the time of the two Labour
governments that have been in office since the last National
government.

National though have not used the statistics that the stuff article
evaluated to frame an issue with increased crime - but they have
framed an issue with 'weakening sentencing laws' that includes
reference to statistics that portray an increase in 'serious crime'.
The Stuff article finds minor fault with the stats but this is the
limit that their fact-checking goes into. As such it does not address
the substance of the Press Release (https://web.archive.org/web/20230112032934/https://www.national.org.nz/government_must_not_weaken_sentencing_laws).


--
Crash McBash

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Tue, 17 Jan 2023 13:51:37 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:

On 16 Jan 2023 20:38:55 GMT, Gordon <Gordon@leaf.net.nz> wrote:

Stuff asks the question Has violent crime gone up under labour?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-whole-truth/130965380/the-whole-truth-has-violent-crime-gone-up-under-labour

National is stating "�Violent crime is on track to increase by 40%
under Labour.�

Stuff then gets 31% increase for crime ending October 2022. This
gives us another year so on a pro rata the 31% , gives us 37.2%.
Close enough for the 40% figure.

Stuff also says that the 31% increase is a great deal lower than the 40%. To >>my this implies that 31% figure is okay ? What ever the figure it is most >>unsatisfactory.

Interesting that The Whole Truth series has returned. Welcome to election >>year.

An interesting article and valuable in analysing the statistics quoted
by a political party. Clearly National are trying to frame a problem
with increasing 'serious crime' during the time of the two Labour
governments that have been in office since the last National
government.

National though have not used the statistics that the stuff article
evaluated to frame an issue with increased crime - but they have
framed an issue with 'weakening sentencing laws' that includes
reference to statistics that portray an increase in 'serious crime'.
The Stuff article finds minor fault with the stats but this is the
limit that their fact-checking goes into. As such it does not address
the substance of the Press Release >(https://web.archive.org/web/20230112032934/https://www.national.org.nz/government_must_not_weaken_sentencing_laws).

There was no substance in the rest of the Press Release - can you say
why they believe "weakening sentencing laws" has produced more of this
narrow segement of crime over the last two years?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Tue, 17 Jan 2023 14:58:19 +1300, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com>
wrote:

On Tue, 17 Jan 2023 13:51:37 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:

On 16 Jan 2023 20:38:55 GMT, Gordon <Gordon@leaf.net.nz> wrote:

Stuff asks the question Has violent crime gone up under labour?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-whole-truth/130965380/the-whole-truth-has-violent-crime-gone-up-under-labour

National is stating "�Violent crime is on track to increase by 40%
under Labour.�

Stuff then gets 31% increase for crime ending October 2022. This
gives us another year so on a pro rata the 31% , gives us 37.2%.
Close enough for the 40% figure.

Stuff also says that the 31% increase is a great deal lower than the 40%. To >>>my this implies that 31% figure is okay ? What ever the figure it is most >>>unsatisfactory.

Interesting that The Whole Truth series has returned. Welcome to election >>>year.

An interesting article and valuable in analysing the statistics quoted
by a political party. Clearly National are trying to frame a problem
with increasing 'serious crime' during the time of the two Labour >>governments that have been in office since the last National
government.

National though have not used the statistics that the stuff article >>evaluated to frame an issue with increased crime - but they have
framed an issue with 'weakening sentencing laws' that includes
reference to statistics that portray an increase in 'serious crime'.
The Stuff article finds minor fault with the stats but this is the
limit that their fact-checking goes into. As such it does not address
the substance of the Press Release >>(https://web.archive.org/web/20230112032934/https://www.national.org.nz/government_must_not_weaken_sentencing_laws).

There was no substance in the rest of the Press Release - can you say
why they believe "weakening sentencing laws" has produced more of this
narrow segement of crime over the last two years?

No - why would I? I was merely pointing out the press release which
Stuff carried out a fact-check on as having no substance in respect of
the stats referenced.


--
Crash McBash

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Tue, 17 Jan 2023 20:00:17 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:

On Tue, 17 Jan 2023 14:58:19 +1300, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com>
wrote:

On Tue, 17 Jan 2023 13:51:37 +1300, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> >>wrote:

On 16 Jan 2023 20:38:55 GMT, Gordon <Gordon@leaf.net.nz> wrote:

Stuff asks the question Has violent crime gone up under labour?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-whole-truth/130965380/the-whole-truth-has-violent-crime-gone-up-under-labour

National is stating "�Violent crime is on track to increase by 40% >>>>under Labour.�

Stuff then gets 31% increase for crime ending October 2022. This
gives us another year so on a pro rata the 31% , gives us 37.2%.
Close enough for the 40% figure.

Stuff also says that the 31% increase is a great deal lower than the 40%. To
my this implies that 31% figure is okay ? What ever the figure it is most >>>>unsatisfactory.

Interesting that The Whole Truth series has returned. Welcome to election >>>>year.

An interesting article and valuable in analysing the statistics quoted
by a political party. Clearly National are trying to frame a problem >>>with increasing 'serious crime' during the time of the two Labour >>>governments that have been in office since the last National
government.

National though have not used the statistics that the stuff article >>>evaluated to frame an issue with increased crime - but they have
framed an issue with 'weakening sentencing laws' that includes
reference to statistics that portray an increase in 'serious crime'.
The Stuff article finds minor fault with the stats but this is the
limit that their fact-checking goes into. As such it does not address >>>the substance of the Press Release >>>(https://web.archive.org/web/20230112032934/https://www.national.org.nz/government_must_not_weaken_sentencing_laws).

There was no substance in the rest of the Press Release - can you say
why they believe "weakening sentencing laws" has produced more of this >>narrow segement of crime over the last two years?

No - why would I? I was merely pointing out the press release which
Stuff carried out a fact-check on as having no substance in respect of
the stats referenced.

Then we are both correct - the import of their press release was tehy
wanted an assurance that sentences would not be reduced by the
government, but without giving any valind reasons, or any links to the projected statistic that they had calculated.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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