• Re: Fat Lady squealing Cheney's loss may be the second worst for a Hous

    From 80%@21:1/5 to trumps bitch on Wed Feb 21 11:55:38 2024
    XPost: alt.politics.conservative, alt.fan.sean-hannity, talk.politics.guns XPost: talk.politics.misc

    In article <t2kmk6$3mncl$108@news.freedyn.de>
    trumps bitch <patriot1@protonmail.com> wrote:

    This is what happens to bitchy fat broads who stab honest men in the back.


    (CNN)The surprising story out of Tuesday's Republican House
    primary in Wyoming wasn't that Rep. Liz Cheney lost. The pre-
    election polls all showed her losing handily to eventual winner
    Harriet Hageman.

    The big news from the Cowboy State was her margin of defeat.
    Cheney's loss is one of the biggest on record for a House
    incumbent and is part of a pattern this primary season pointing
    to former President Donald Trump's strength within the
    Republican Party.
    Cheney's defeat appears to be the second worst for a House
    incumbent in the last 60 years, when you look at races featuring
    only one incumbent. As of Wednesday afternoon, she trailed
    Hageman by 37.4 points, which is just worse than California Rep.
    Marty Martinez's loss by 37.2 points to fellow Democrat Hilda
    Solis in a 2000 blanket primary.

    Assuming the Wyoming result margin stands, South Carolina
    Republican Bob Inglis would then be the only House incumbent in
    the last 60 years to lose by a wider margin than Cheney. He lost
    by 41 points in a 2010 primary runoff to Trey Gowdy.

    The Inglis comparison to Cheney's loss is notable for two
    reasons.

    The first is that Inglis' lopsided defeat occurred in a runoff,
    with only about 77,000 people voting. That was down from the
    about 87,000 who voted in the first round for the upstate South
    Carolina seat and far less than the roughly 217,000 who voted in
    the fall election in that district.

    Cheney can't blame low turnout for her historic defeat. About
    170,000 votes have been counted in Wyoming as of Wednesday
    afternoon. That's not too far off from the approximately 201,000
    Wyomingites who voted in the last midterm general election.
    Cheney's loss was no fluke.

    The second reason the comparison is notable is that Inglis had
    alienated the Republican base by opposing the 2007 Iraq troop
    surge, voting for the so-called bank bailout in 2008 and
    believing in man-made climate change.
    In Cheney's case, the offense in voters' minds was that she
    voted to impeach Trump last year and seemed to relish her
    opposition to him.

    Beyond Cheney
    Cheney's loss wasn't the only historic defeat this primary
    season.

    GOP Rep. Tom Rice of South Carolina, who also voted to impeach
    Trump, got blown out in his primary in June. He pulled in a mere
    24.6% of the vote while losing to Russell Fry. That percentage
    appears to be the worst performance for a House incumbent in a
    partisan primary with just one incumbent running since 1992.

    Indeed, all six House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump and
    ran for reelection faced tough battles. Four of them (including
    Cheney and Rice) lost their primaries, which is extremely
    unusual. Just 2% of other House Republicans who have run for
    reelection this season have lost primaries, and those defeated
    lawmakers were either scandal-plagued or lost to a fellow
    incumbent because of redistricting.

    Perhaps, more notable is that none of the aforementioned six impeachment-backing Republicans got a majority of votes cast for
    GOP candidates in their primaries. Since 1956, House incumbents
    have averaged more than 90% of the primary vote.
    All of these historical anomalies related to those who voted to
    impeach Trump help us understand Trump's strength with the
    Republican Party today.

    It makes Cheney's postelection goal of stopping Trump from
    regaining power a tough one. (She told NBC's "Today" show on
    Wednesday that she was "thinking about" running for president in
    2024, something Trump is also considering.)

    The former President is averaging about 50% of the national GOP
    primary vote for 2024 right now. That's the best for any
    nonincumbent Republican at this point in the modern primary era.

    Cheney's favorable rating among Republicans nationally is 13%,
    which probably makes her a terrible messenger to GOP voters.

    The truth is that Republicans are inclined to believe that
    President Joe Biden didn't win the 2020 election (which he did).
    Trump's favorable rating with this group is somewhere north of
    80% in most polls. But if Trump is going to be beaten in a GOP
    primary, it'll very likely be by someone who has adopted most of
    his message. Someone like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

    If Trump is defeated in a general election, it will almost
    certainly be by a Democrat.

    An effort led by a Republican who doesn't like Trump would be
    speaking to a very small part of the US population.

    <https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/17/politics/liz-cheney-worst-defeat- house-incumbent/index.html>

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)