• Biden To Blame For Failure of The "Red Wave" Failing To Materialize.

    From Biden To Blame@21:1/5 to All on Sun Oct 22 18:13:45 2023
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    How Democratic wins in key toss-up seats helped stave off the ‘red wave’
    Erum Salam

    The expected Republican steamroll in the midterms never materialized, due
    to concerns over abortion rights and a mobilized Democratic base
    Sun 20 Nov 2022 11.00 GMT
    Last modified on Sun 20 Nov 2022 11.01 GMT

    When Republicans narrowly clinched control of the US House of
    Representatives, it was clear the “red wave” failed to materialize and Democrats avoided what many feared would be a hefty defeat.

    Considering the midterm elections historically tend to favor the
    president’s opposing party, Democrats performed well. Despite Biden’s low approval rating, his administration had the best midterm performance of
    any president in decades.
    Man with American flag in front of the Michigan state capitol
    Why the Democrats’ biggest wins of the midterms weren’t in Washington DC
    Read more

    That strong performance, especially in battleground seats, came about
    because the party was able to mobilize its base – greatly helped by the
    issue of abortion rights – while in many areas Republicans were hampered because extremist candidates, often espousing unpopular views around
    election denial, failed to deliver enthusiastic support.

    Examining certain toss-up seats reveals the pattern that helped the
    Democrats over-perform expectations. A competitive House race is often
    defined by how close the results appear to be, as indicated by early
    polling and the district’s past performance in previous elections.

    Ashley Koning, the director of Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for
    Public Interest Polling, said: “If we’re talking about numbers,
    competitiveness would be something within the margin of error or a very
    small margin between two candidates in pre-election polling.
    Substantively, a competitive race would be where either candidate has a
    shot of winning and are both polling equal support throughout the election cycle.”

    Democrats performed better in competitive races, and they certainly performed better where abortion was on the ballot

    Ashley Koning

    Koning added: “Democrats performed better in competitive races, and they certainly performed better where abortion was on the ballot either
    directly or indirectly.”

    Exit polls showed issues like abortion rights were top of mind for voters, particularly women, as seen by the ballot measures passed to protect
    abortion access in all five states that held such votes.

    In Virginia, often referred to as a bellwether state because its election results often match that of the nation, incumbent Democrats like Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton fended off their Republican challengers.

    “That was a key indicator that the House would be in better shape for Democrats,” Koning said.

    In Michigan, a swing state, not only did incumbent governor Gretchen
    Whitmer hold on to her seat, reproductive rights won big, too. Michigan
    voters opted to establish abortion protections in the state’s
    constitution. Before the election, Democratic House candidate Elissa
    Slotkin predicted that if the abortion ballot measure passed, she’d win
    her election. Slotkin ultimately won in the highly competitive seventh district.

    “We’re seeing success for Democrats in such a swing state and such a competitive state time and time again in election cycles,” Koning said.

    Another factor is the dismal performance by Republican candidates with
    extreme far-right views who aligned themselves with Donald Trump – a trend
    also seen in the losses of election deniers in nearly every statewide
    race.

    “We saw that Republican candidates actually took quite a hit if they were extreme and/or backed by Trump,” Koning said.

    In south Texas, Democrats re-flipped a seat in the 34th district when
    Vicente Gonzalez defeated far-right incumbent Mayra Flores, who won a
    special election earlier this year. Another Democrat, Henry Cuellar, held
    on to his seat in the state’s 28th district.

    In Washington’s third congressional district, progressive Marie
    Gluesenkamp Perez didn’t just win her race against Trump ally Joe Kent,
    she also flipped the red seat blue.

    Redistricting also played a crucial role in the nail-biting race for House control and could be responsible for some of the few Democrat reversals
    during the midterms.

    Democrats had a strong night

    Joe Biden

    In states like Michigan, California, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and New
    York, independent commissions and courts drew competitive maps that gave
    both parties a chance to compete for seats. In other states, like Texas, Florida and Illinois, lawmakers drew maps that were heavily distorted to
    favor one party over the other.

    “On the whole, maps looked slightly better for Democrats than they did previously. Of course, it still did favor Republicans across the country,
    but really that’s state-by-state dependent. There were a number of gerrymandering court cases that came in the final weeks and months before
    the election,” Koning said.

    One such court case was in New York, often thought of as a predictably
    blue state.

    New York Democrats tried to gerrymander the state map in 2022 in favor of
    their party, but the map was thrown out by a state judge. The state then
    saw a wave of Republican House wins, like in district 17, where the
    incumbent representative and chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm,
    Sean Maloney, lost to Republican Mike Lawler.

    New York’s fourth district, which was expected to lean Democrat, was won
    by Republican Anthony D’Esposito.

    In a press conference before the House was officially called for
    Republicans, Biden said: “Democrats had a strong night. And we lost fewer
    seats in the House of Representatives than any Democratic president’s
    first midterm election in the last 40 years.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/20/democratic-midterm-wins- republican-red-wave-analysis

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