• Covid Zero Is No Longer Working for Australia

    From David P.@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 13 00:52:37 2021
    Covid Zero Is No Longer Working for Australia
    By Cliff and Fernandes, 9/8/21, NY Times

    Australia was, until recently, heralded for its effective
    suppression of Covid; through strict border closures,
    prolonged lockdowns and its fortune as a remote island
    continent, the country was able to avoid a large-scale
    outbreak. The Delta variant has, however, turned that
    success upside down.

    Despite over half of Australia’s 25 million inhabitants
    living under very harsh restrictions — including overnight
    curfews, travel limits of only about 3 miles from home &
    limits on outdoor daily exercise to a couple of hours —
    cases have soared to over 1,400 a day, the most since the
    pandemic began. As authorities tighten restrictions,
    hospitals are reaching capacity with Covid patients, &
    Australia’s delayed vaccination program is only beginning
    to gain momentum.

    Pre-Delta, Australia’s aggressive lockdowns quashed Covid
    cases and allowed for the return to near-normal life from
    around Dec 2020 to May 2021. But this lulled the country
    into a false sense of security, and only 8% of eligible
    Australians were fully vaccinated by July 2021. Vaccination
    has progressed in recent weeks, most likely thanks to a
    growing supply of the Pfizer vaccine & increased motivation
    to get out from under restrictions. Now 39%t of eligible
    Australians are fully vaccinated, and 64% have had at
    least one dose.

    The country’s slow vaccination start stemmed from its
    inability to produce mRNA vaccines locally & its struggle
    to procure other vaccine options, leaving it dependent on
    the AstraZeneca vaccine as its vaccination program’s
    backbone. When rare cases of blood clots were tied to the
    AstraZeneca vaccine, the country was unable to pivot.
    Though well intentioned, Australia’s scientific advisory
    group for immunizations urged people under 60 to wait for
    the Pfizer vaccine. Politicians bickered, the local media
    attacked the AstraZeneca vaccine relentlessly, & vaccine
    hesitancy spread. With its vaccination rate the lowest
    among high-income countries, Australia was a sitting duck
    for Delta’s arrival.

    The variant’s increased virulence, combined with Australia’s
    winter weather, has led to multiple, rapid outbreaks across
    the country, including ones spread by an unvaccinated
    airport limo driver and an unvaccinated Covid hospital
    receptionist. In its desperation to acquire doses of the
    Pfizer mRNA vaccine, Australia embarrassingly sought 500,000
    vaccines from the Covax stockpile, intended for low-income
    countries, and has received doses from Poland, Britain and
    Singapore.

    Vaccinations are increasing, yet hopes of a meaningful
    easing of restrictions may still be months away. It’s
    unclear whether the draconian restrictions will continue
    to be effective against Delta.

    Today, Australia’s border remains closed; citizens must
    request permission to leave or enter the country, and
    incoming travel quotas were recently slashed in an attempt
    to stem rising cases. Although the country was able to
    safely shepherd home over 200,000 returning Australians
    thru its 14-day hotel quarantine system, more cases are
    escaping now than before.

    Govts are increasingly relying on police & military forces
    for enforcement, and lockdowns are costing the Australian
    economy billions. In spite of restrictions, case numbers
    continue to rise, & “Covid zero” is becoming increasingly
    out of reach. Australians are tired, frustrated & lonely,
    & recent protests are turning violent.

    So what now?

    Australia is at a stalemate: Unable to quash the Delta
    variant with previously effective tactics, the country
    needs a new approach.

    A govt-commissioned modeling report from Melbourne’s
    leading Doherty Inst. charted some easing of restrictions
    after 70-80% of the adult population is fully vaccinated.
    By current forecasts, however, this level of vaccination
    may be possible only by November, depending on vaccine
    supply and community cooperation. Although experts have
    suggested that the number of daily cases should not hinder
    Australia’s desire to open up, it is disconcerting to
    consider easing restrictions with 1000s of cases per day.

    As doctors who have treated many Covid-19 patients in
    Melbourne and Sydney, we have seen the ravages of the
    virus firsthand, and many fear for the health system’s
    ability to cope when restrictions are inevitably loosened.
    There’s a backlog of nonurgent procedures to catch up on,
    & many people have avoided medical attention out of fear
    of Covid exposure. We are concerned for Australia’s
    Indigenous population, given Covid’s disproportionate
    impact on disenfranchised minorities in other countries.

    At some point, Australia’s political and health leaders
    must acknowledge that the country cannot escape Covid
    forever and must prepare the community to live with Covid.

    To do so, Australia must add fuel to its vaccination rollout
    thru incentives: immunization stations in accessible
    locations such as shopping centers; requiring vaccine
    passports at venues, for events and for travel; and a
    targeted marketing campaign to get more people vaccinated.

    Australia will also need to keep reasonable public health
    restrictions for the short to medium term, including indoor
    masking, avoiding large events and using its test, trace,
    isolate and quarantine system. As leaders encourage people
    to adhere to restrictions in the coming weeks, they must
    simultaneously begin to prepare Australians for the likeli-
    hood that there will be high case numbers when restrictions
    ease. This will be a sizable shift in expectations, given
    Covid’s relatively low local prevalence so far.

    Less than a year ago, people watched Australians enjoy
    their blissful summer largely free from Covid and from
    restrictions. Now we watch vaccinated friends in other
    countries return to a near-normal life amid the harsh
    reality that Australia may still have months of lockdown
    ahead. Once the envy of the world, Australia has come to a
    complete standstill — unable to return to the panacea of
    Covid zero it once enjoyed, yet far from ready to embrace
    the Covid normal of tomorrow.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/08/opinion/australia-covid-delta.html

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