Covid Zero Is No Longer Working for Australia
By Cliff and Fernandes, 9/8/21, NY Times

Australia was, until recently, heralded for its effective
suppression of Covid; through strict border closures,
prolonged lockdowns and its fortune as a remote island
continent, the country was able to avoid a large-scale
outbreak. The Delta variant has, however, turned that
success upside down.

Despite over half of Australia’s 25 million inhabitants
living under very harsh restrictions — including overnight
curfews, travel limits of only about 3 miles from home &
limits on outdoor daily exercise to a couple of hours —
cases have soared to over 1,400 a day, the most since the
pandemic began. As authorities tighten restrictions,
hospitals are reaching capacity with Covid patients, &
Australia’s delayed vaccination program is only beginning
to gain momentum.

Pre-Delta, Australia’s aggressive lockdowns quashed Covid
cases and allowed for the return to near-normal life from
around Dec 2020 to May 2021. But this lulled the country
into a false sense of security, and only 8% of eligible
Australians were fully vaccinated by July 2021. Vaccination
has progressed in recent weeks, most likely thanks to a
growing supply of the Pfizer vaccine & increased motivation
to get out from under restrictions. Now 39%t of eligible
Australians are fully vaccinated, and 64% have had at
least one dose.

The country’s slow vaccination start stemmed from its
inability to produce mRNA vaccines locally & its struggle
to procure other vaccine options, leaving it dependent on
the AstraZeneca vaccine as its vaccination program’s
backbone. When rare cases of blood clots were tied to the
AstraZeneca vaccine, the country was unable to pivot.
Though well intentioned, Australia’s scientific advisory
group for immunizations urged people under 60 to wait for
the Pfizer vaccine. Politicians bickered, the local media
attacked the AstraZeneca vaccine relentlessly, & vaccine
hesitancy spread. With its vaccination rate the lowest
among high-income countries, Australia was a sitting duck
for Delta’s arrival.

The variant’s increased virulence, combined with Australia’s
winter weather, has led to multiple, rapid outbreaks across
the country, including ones spread by an unvaccinated
airport limo driver and an unvaccinated Covid hospital
receptionist. In its desperation to acquire doses of the
Pfizer mRNA vaccine, Australia embarrassingly sought 500,000
vaccines from the Covax stockpile, intended for low-income
countries, and has received doses from Poland, Britain and
Singapore.

Vaccinations are increasing, yet hopes of a meaningful
easing of restrictions may still be months away. It’s
unclear whether the draconian restrictions will continue
to be effective against Delta.

Today, Australia’s border remains closed; citizens must
request permission to leave or enter the country, and
incoming travel quotas were recently slashed in an attempt
to stem rising cases. Although the country was able to
safely shepherd home over 200,000 returning Australians
thru its 14-day hotel quarantine system, more cases are
escaping now than before.

Govts are increasingly relying on police & military forces
for enforcement, and lockdowns are costing the Australian
economy billions. In spite of restrictions, case numbers
continue to rise, & “Covid zero” is becoming increasingly
out of reach. Australians are tired, frustrated & lonely,
& recent protests are turning violent.

So what now?

Australia is at a stalemate: Unable to quash the Delta
variant with previously effective tactics, the country
needs a new approach.

A govt-commissioned modeling report from Melbourne’s
leading Doherty Inst. charted some easing of restrictions
after 70-80% of the adult population is fully vaccinated.
By current forecasts, however, this level of vaccination
may be possible only by November, depending on vaccine
supply and community cooperation. Although experts have
suggested that the number of daily cases should not hinder
Australia’s desire to open up, it is disconcerting to
consider easing restrictions with 1000s of cases per day.

As doctors who have treated many Covid-19 patients in
Melbourne and Sydney, we have seen the ravages of the
virus firsthand, and many fear for the health system’s
ability to cope when restrictions are inevitably loosened.
There’s a backlog of nonurgent procedures to catch up on,
& many people have avoided medical attention out of fear
of Covid exposure. We are concerned for Australia’s
Indigenous population, given Covid’s disproportionate
impact on disenfranchised minorities in other countries.

At some point, Australia’s political and health leaders
must acknowledge that the country cannot escape Covid
forever and must prepare the community to live with Covid.

To do so, Australia must add fuel to its vaccination rollout
thru incentives: immunization stations in accessible
locations such as shopping centers; requiring vaccine
passports at venues, for events and for travel; and a
targeted marketing campaign to get more people vaccinated.

Australia will also need to keep reasonable public health
restrictions for the short to medium term, including indoor
masking, avoiding large events and using its test, trace,
isolate and quarantine system. As leaders encourage people
to adhere to restrictions in the coming weeks, they must
simultaneously begin to prepare Australians for the likeli-
hood that there will be high case numbers when restrictions
ease. This will be a sizable shift in expectations, given
Covid’s relatively low local prevalence so far.

Less than a year ago, people watched Australians enjoy
their blissful summer largely free from Covid and from
restrictions. Now we watch vaccinated friends in other
countries return to a near-normal life amid the harsh
reality that Australia may still have months of lockdown
ahead. Once the envy of the world, Australia has come to a
complete standstill — unable to return to the panacea of
Covid zero it once enjoyed, yet far from ready to embrace
the Covid normal of tomorrow.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/08/opinion/australia-covid-delta.html

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