[continued from previous message]

deviation*, thus for the Cauchy distribution (and many other commonly occurring distributions) Arthur's phrase "the size of the standard
deviation" is nonsensical.

I think the rule here is "know your distribution", and don't apply the rules for one when the numbers are a different one. It's like the chi-squared test
-- it's tempting to use it more than you should because it seems good, but
it's actually totally inappropriate under most circumstances.

Takeaway: when some distribution is not 'normal', then our INTUITION FAILS US.

Let me rephrase that -- when the distribution is not a Bell Curve, then the General Public will completely misunderstand it.

The sign on an abnormal distribution should read: "Abandon all
intuition, ye who enter here". Something is dreadfully wrong when the variance/standard deviation or even the mean/expected value does not exist. Even when the mean/'expected value' does exist for such an abnormal distribution, it is almost always misleading and/or useless. Perhaps it would be more appropriate to call such a mean 'the SUSpected value'!:-)

I think you think you are talking about pretty much anything outside of a
Bell Curve. But other distributions are also well understood (by statisticians).

For example, your beloved (ab)normal SuperSpreader distribution is just a normal skewed distribution -- the same distribution and maths associated
with salaries, actually -- and I would think that is well understood!

(And while I would not claim to be a statistician, having studied
Statistics, Relativity and Quantum Mechanics at Uni, I can at least spot a bullshit argument relatively <groan> easily.)

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 9 Jun 2020 11:24:37 +0300
From: Amos Shapir <amos083@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Just Stop the Superspreading (Baker, Risks 31.96)

The way I've heard it, when one asks "Why do models use the normal distribution?", statisticians say "We don't know, the mathematicians tell us it's easier to calculate that way", and mathematicians say "We don't know,
the statisticians tell us this is what happens in the real world".

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 9 Jun 2020 08:25:06 -0700
From: Rob Slade <rmslade@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: Just Stop the Superspreading (Baker, RISKS-31.96)

and with Avagadro's number of 'independent' variables

Does that mean we have a mole influencing our decisions?

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 1 Jun 2020 11:11:11 -0800
From: RISKS-request@csl.sri.com
Subject: Abridged info on RISKS (comp.risks)

The ACM RISKS Forum is a MODERATED digest. Its Usenet manifestation is
comp.risks, the feed for which is donated by panix.com as of June 2011.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: The mailman Web interface can be used directly to

subscribe and unsubscribe:
http://mls.csl.sri.com/mailman/listinfo/risks

SUBMISSIONS: to risks@CSL.sri.com with meaningful SUBJECT: line that

includes the string `notsp'. Otherwise your message may not be read.
*** This attention-string has never changed, but might if spammers use it.

SPAM challenge-responses will not be honored. Instead, use an alternative

address from which you never send mail where the address becomes public!

The complete INFO file (submissions, default disclaimers, archive sites,

copyright policy, etc.) is online.
<http://www.CSL.sri.com/risksinfo.html>
*** Contributors are assumed to have read the full info file for guidelines!

OFFICIAL ARCHIVES: http://www.risks.org takes you to Lindsay Marshall's

searchable html archive at newcastle:
http://catless.ncl.ac.uk/Risks/VL.IS --> VoLume, ISsue.
Also, ftp://ftp.sri.com/risks for the current volume
or ftp://ftp.sri.com/VL/risks-VL.IS for previous VoLume
If none of those work for you, the most recent issue is always at
http://www.csl.sri.com/users/risko/risks.txt, and index at /risks-31.00
ALTERNATIVE ARCHIVES: http://seclists.org/risks/ (only since mid-2001)
*** NOTE: If a cited URL fails, we do not try to update them. Try
browsing on the keywords in the subject line or cited article leads.
Apologies for what Office365 and SafeLinks may have done to URLs.

Special Offer to Join ACM for readers of the ACM RISKS Forum:

<http://www.acm.org/joinacm1>

------------------------------

End of RISKS-FORUM Digest 31.97
************************

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)