• Re: [telecom] ISDN's days are numbered: What should you do?

    From Bill Horne@21:1/5 to Fred Goldstein on Mon May 23 02:41:44 2022
    On Sun, May 22, 2022 at 12:11:50PM -0400, Fred Goldstein wrote:
    On 5/21/2022 12:36 PM, Bill Horne wrote:
    On 5/19/2022 9:05, Bill Horne wrote:
    I was talking to an old friend yesterday, and he told me that he's
    been working from home for a while now, and the conversation turned to >>>ISDN phone service, which I recommend to anyone who can still obtain >>>it.

    1. Which states still have tariffs for ISDN BRI lines?
    ...

    ISDN Basic Rate Interface (BRI) is generally no longer available in
    the US. Verizon and I think ATT long ago gave formal notice of
    discontinuance or grandfathering. Maybe Qwest, pre-Century, didn't
    bother, so it may still be on the books there. But few know how to
    provision it. Many of the switches that provided it (mainly 5ESS and
    DMS-100 in the US) no longer are in service. It was useful, especially
    for broadcasters doing remote feeds. It was better than a modem for
    Internet access, and that's what killed it as it was coming out in the
    early 1990s -- the Bells hated the Internet, which broke their
    locality-based business model, and while they couldn't attack modem
    users per se, they could at least attack the most obvious Internet
    user group, non-Centrex ISDN BRI users. Bell Atlantic l/k/a Verizon
    was also fanatical in those days about selling Centrex, and saw ISDN
    BRI as a tool for Centrex feature phones, but that was about it. That business has faded out too.

    I don't often disagree with Fred on issues like ISDN, but I'm going to
    advance a different theory: I had a chance to test an ISDN line at my
    home near Boston, back around 1994 or so, and I was /very/ surprised to
    find that getting a 64Kbps connection on either of the "Bearer"
    channels was very difficult.

    It turned out that the only solution was to redial several times, and
    sooner or later I'd get a 64Kbps connection. After 15 or 20 minutes of
    dialing and redialing, I might end up with two 64Kbps "Bearer"
    connections to The Well, an ISP which served ISDN customers, and I
    could bind them together to obtain a 128 Kbps Internet connection.

    When I investigated, I quickly found out that almost all of the
    T-Carrier systems connecting the central office to its Tandems were
    not equipped for "8 bit clean" connections. In other words, the
    connections from the CO to Tandem offices were designed for the
    original T-Carrier "robbed bit" signalling paradigm, and were not
    capable of delivering 64Kbps data connections.

    I think Verizon - and probably the other Baby Bells - wanted to avoid
    the expense of retraining a unionized workforce to make use of the
    8-bit-clean fiber-optic channels just being introduced at the
    time. The company would have had to retrain not only the "CO"
    technicians, but also the provisioning specialists responsible for
    specifying the number and type of trunks for each CO to use for each
    service. Even though ISDN data calls were billed per-minute, the
    accountants most likely projected more cost than revenue.

    Bill

    --
    Bill Horne
    (Please remove QRM from my email address if you write to me directly)

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  • From Fred Goldstein@21:1/5 to Bill Horne on Sun May 22 12:11:50 2022
    On 5/21/2022 12:36 PM, Bill Horne wrote:
    On 5/19/2022 9:05, Bill Horne wrote:
    I was talking to an old friend yesterday, and he told me that he's
    been working from home for a while now, and the conversation turned to
    ISDN phone service, which I recommend to anyone who can still obtain
    it.

    1. Which states still have tariffs for ISDN BRI lines?
    ...

    ISDN Basic Rate Interface (BRI) is generally no longer available in
    the US. Verizon and I think ATT long ago gave formal notice of
    discontinuance or grandfathering. Maybe Qwest, pre-Century, didn't
    bother, so it may still be on the books there. But few know how to
    provision it. Many of the switches that provided it (mainly 5ESS and
    DMS-100 in the US) no longer are in service. It was useful, especially
    for broadcasters doing remote feeds. It was better than a modem for
    Internet access, and that's what killed it as it was coming out in the
    early 1990s -- the Bells hated the Internet, which broke their
    locality-based business model, and while they couldn't attack modem
    users per se, they could at least attack the most obvious Internet
    user group, non-Centrex ISDN BRI users. Bell Atlantic l/k/a Verizon
    was also fanatical in those days about selling Centrex, and saw ISDN
    BRI as a tool for Centrex feature phones, but that was about it. That
    business has faded out too.

    ISDN Primary Rate Interface (PRI), which runs over a DS-1 ("T1")
    channel, is still out there, though again its number are in
    decline. It is a very good trunk interface for PBX systems, and many
    different 1995-2010 vintage switching systems support it, as it
    handled the dial-up era's modem pools. But most newer systems use SIP
    trunks instead. PRI has higher quality of service than SIP/RTP/IP, but
    the industry has moved away from it, as the higher-volume IP services
    usually have a lower price tag.

    --
    Fred R. Goldstein k1io fred "at" ionary.com
    +1 617 795 2701

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  • From Harold Hallikainen@21:1/5 to All on Sun May 22 09:39:17 2022
    For POTS, whether delivered over copper or ISDN, it appears that there is
    an effort to move from circuit switched to packet switched (VoIP). Besides
    the efficiency of packet switched (data compression and no bandwidth
    allocated to silence), VoIP is not regulated as a common carrier under
    title 2, as far as I know.

    Harold
    https://w6iwi.org

    ***** Moderator's Note *****

    Harold,

    You have an interesting website: I especially liked the link to the
    Model 19 Teletype repair photos. I learned to type on a Model 19, at
    the M.I.T. Radio Club, W1MX, back around 1968.

    Bill Horne
    Moderator

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  • From Grant Taylor@21:1/5 to Bill Horne on Mon May 23 10:36:05 2022
    On 5/22/22 8:41 PM, Bill Horne wrote:
    When I investigated, I quickly found out that almost all of the
    T-Carrier systems connecting the central office to its Tandems were not equipped for "8 bit clean" connections. In other words, the connections
    from the CO to Tandem offices were designed for the original T-Carrier "robbed bit" signalling paradigm, and were not capable of delivering
    64Kbps data connections.

    This seems to be directly related to the type of bearer channel /needed/
    to support the type of call being placed.

    E.g. /data/ was supposed to be 64 kbps / 8-bit clean from TA to TA all
    the way through the network. Conversely, /voice/ and / or /audio/ calls
    (terms are slightly different) could use 56 kbps or even analog trunks somewhere in the middle of the network.

    My understanding is that 64 kbps / 8-bit clean calls are supposed to
    refuse to establish over an impure intermediate transit between two
    switches.



    --
    Grant. . . .
    unix || die

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  • From Fred Goldstein@21:1/5 to Bill Horne on Mon May 23 08:39:30 2022
    On 5/22/2022 10:41 PM, Bill Horne wrote:
    ...
    ISDN Basic Rate Interface (BRI) is generally no longer available in
    the US. Verizon and I think ATT long ago gave formal notice of
    discontinuance or grandfathering. Maybe Qwest, pre-Century, didn't
    bother, so it may still be on the books there. But few know how to
    provision it. Many of the switches that provided it (mainly 5ESS
    and DMS-100 in the US) no longer are in service. It was useful,
    especially for broadcasters doing remote feeds. It was better than
    a modem for Internet access, and that's what killed it as it was
    coming out in the early 1990s -- the Bells hated the Internet,
    which broke their locality-based business model, and while they
    couldn't attack modem users per se, they could at least attack the
    most obvious Internet user group, non-Centrex ISDN BRI users. Bell
    Atlantic l/k/a Verizon was also fanatical in those days about
    selling Centrex, and saw ISDN BRI as a tool for Centrex feature
    phones, but that was about it. That business has faded out too.

    I don't often disagree with Fred on issues like ISDN, but I'm going to advance a different theory: I had a chance to test an ISDN line at my
    home near Boston, back around 1994 or so, and I was /very/ surprised to
    find that getting a 64Kbps connection on either of the "Bearer"
    channels was very difficult.

    It turned out that the only solution was to redial several times, and
    sooner or later I'd get a 64Kbps connection. After 15 or 20 minutes of dialing and redialing, I might end up with two 64Kbps "Bearer"
    connections to The Well, an ISP which served ISDN customers, and I
    could bind them together to obtain a 128 Kbps Internet connection.

    When I investigated, I quickly found out that almost all of the
    T-Carrier systems connecting the central office to its Tandems were
    not equipped for "8 bit clean" connections. In other words, the
    connections from the CO to Tandem offices were designed for the
    original T-Carrier "robbed bit" signalling paradigm, and were not
    capable of delivering 64Kbps data connections.

    I think Verizon - and probably the other Baby Bells - wanted to avoid
    the expense of retraining a unionized workforce to make use of the 8-bit-clean fiber-optic channels just being introduced at the
    time. The company would have had to retrain not only the "CO"
    technicians, but also the provisioning specialists responsible for
    specifying the number and type of trunks for each CO to use for each
    service. Even though ISDN data calls were billed per-minute, the
    accountants most likely projected more cost than revenue.

    The 64-kbit data bearer service was, as you note, not widely
    available. For it to work, both the transmission systems and the
    switching systems needed to implement the B8ZS fix to the T1 carrier
    system specification. And yes, NYNEX was full of old line cards that
    only did the not-clean old AMI format. They had upgraded some of the
    switches to have ISDN but didn't update the trunk network. Also, the
    inbound ports needed ISDN PRI, which they were initially slow to roll
    out. They treated ISDN data as "Switched 56", an older data service
    that accommodated robbed-bit signaling. That was where their tariff
    came from too, at 8c/minute for data calls.

    There was a work-around, though. I always used "data over voice bearer
    service" (DOVBS), wherein the network was told it was a voice call and
    the terminal gear only used the clean 7 bits, for a 56k connection.
    That not only worked well, but took advantage of the flat rate voice
    calls on residential lines. Those calls could also terminate into a
    modem pool that was not on ISDN PRI, just on the older robbed-bit T1
    trunk service. When I was setting up DEC's ISDN trial circa 1993,
    they actually told us to do that, as they had no other way to deliver
    the calls.

    --
    Fred R. Goldstein k1io fred "at" ionary.com
    +1 617 795 2701


    ***** Moderator's Note *****

    For some reason, "DOSBS" (Data Over Speech Bearer Service) was a taboo
    subject by 1994: the ISP's that supported ISDN connections all
    pretended that they had never heard of it, and "bonding," even with 56
    Kbps *DATA* calls, was likewise a mystery.

    Bill Horne
    Moderator

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  • From Doug McIntyre@21:1/5 to Fred Goldstein on Wed May 25 15:20:33 2022
    "Fred Goldstein" <invalid@see.sig.telecom-digest.org> writes:
    The 64-kbit data bearer service was, as you note, not widely
    available. For it to work, both the transmission systems and the
    switching systems needed to implement the B8ZS fix to the T1 carrier
    system specification.

    As one who had to troubleshoot ISDN calls failing.
    In my area (Minneapolis), I found 64k bearer calls went through more
    than 98% of the time.

    When those 2% failures came through, I would have to do the cycle
    through the almost always CLEC's supportsystems, get them to trap the calls, and get them to figure out which trunk was marked as 8-bit clean, but
    only could handle the 7-bit channels.

    To me, it didn't seem like they were purposely not upgrading anything,
    just that the 7-bit trunks weren't marked correctly in the switch
    database, so that when 64k calls wanted to go through, the switch
    incorrectly put them on a 7-bit trunk.

    The fix almost always was for the CLEC techs to mark the trunk
    properly in the switch database, and there were plenty of 8-bit clean
    trunks to use, when they were marked correctly so 64k calls could
    properly route through the COs.

    Telecom Digest Moderator wrote:
    For some reason, "DOSBS" (Data Over Speech Bearer Service) was a taboo >subject by 1994: the ISP's that supported ISDN connections all
    pretended that they had never heard of it, and "bonding," even with 56
    Kbps *DATA* calls, was likewise a mystery.

    Since 64k calls went through at least 98% successful in this area, and
    in this area, voice & data were all flat-rate billed, there wasn't any
    point to do the data over speech calls. I don't remember having to
    support anything special to make it happen, but then we didn't really
    have any reason to have to do that in the first place, so I don't
    remember what it took to happen.

    We always did 128k bonded connections with no issues. No mystery here.
    The biggest problem was the customer equipment. Most of it sucked
    hard.

    --
    Doug McIntyre
    doug@themcintyres.us

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  • From Bill Horne@21:1/5 to Garrett Wollman on Sun May 29 19:21:47 2022
    On Fri, May 27, 2022 at 07:53:56PM -0000, Garrett Wollman wrote:
    In article <O8SdnfjNCtEMEhP_nZ2dnUU7-LHNnZ2d@giganews.com>,
    Doug McIntyre <merlyn@dork.geeks.org> wrote:

    We always did 128k bonded connections with no issues. No mystery
    here. The biggest problem was the customer equipment. Most of it
    sucked hard.

    In the early part of my career, I supported ISDN connections for staff
    and faculty in my lab. This was before widespread cable ISP access
    and overbuilding, but Bell Atlantic (as then was) had a special tariff
    that allowed universities to get unmetered ISDN BRI lines installed at employees' homes. We used Ascend equipment to terminate a PRI in our building, which also supported model dial-up. Normally we'd use a
    smaller Ascend box (smaller than my current cable modem!) on the
    residential end, and we'd configure it to nail up both B channels 24x7
    and give each user a subnet.

    [snip]

    I'm going to have to descend from whatever foothold I used to have on
    Mount Olympus, and admit that I don't understand how you could "nail
    up" two bearer channels without disabling the ISDN line's capability
    to carry phone calls. Were the ISDN lines used only for data service,
    or could the Bearer channels be divorced while a phone call was in
    progress?

    --
    Bill Horne
    (Remove QRM from my email address to write to me directly)

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  • From Bill Horne@21:1/5 to Fred Goldstein on Sun May 29 20:51:26 2022
    On Sun, May 22, 2022 at 12:11:50PM -0400, Fred Goldstein wrote:
    On 5/19/2022 9:05, Bill Horne wrote:
    I was talking to an old friend yesterday, and he told me that
    he's been working from home for a while now, and the conversation
    turned to > >>>ISDN phone service, which I recommend to anyone
    who can still obtain it.

    1. Which states still have tariffs for ISDN BRI lines?

    ISDN Basic Rate Interface (BRI) is generally no longer available in the US. Verizon and I think ATT long ago gave formal notice of discontinuance or grandfathering. Maybe Qwest, pre-Century, didn't bother, so it may still be on the books there. But few know how to provision it. Many of the switches that provided it (mainly 5ESS and DMS-100 in the US) no longer are in service. It was useful, especially for broadcasters doing remote feeds. It was better than a modem for Internet access, and that's what killed it as it was coming out in the early 1990s -- the Bells hated the Internet, which broke their locality-based business model, and while they couldn't attack modem users per se, they could at least attack the most obvious Internet
    user group, non-Centrex ISDN BRI users.

    This is twice in one day that I've had to take a step downward from my
    place on Mount Olympus, and I fear I might turn into Sisyphus if I
    don't - pun intended - watch my step. ;-)

    Why would the bells hate the Internet? To be sure, their business
    model was built around central offices which each served a rate
    center, but how could they have predicted and/or anticipated the
    development of VoIP? Did Mother Bell see /any/ data transmission
    method as a threat? Why?

    The Baby Bells knew that Cellular was coming, and I'd bet they knew it
    would displace copper-served POTS within time we've had to see it
    happen. Still, I just don't remember the leaders of the Baby Bells as
    being such long-term thinkers. The Internet hasn't replaced their locality-based feeding trough: we still have and use phone numbers,
    and even if a cell call has to be routed using VoIP and/or SIP trunks,
    the savings in billing offered by "Free" long-distance would have more
    than offset the cost of adapting to new trunking paradigms.

    Bell Atlantic l/k/a Verizon was also fanatical in those days about
    selling Centrex, and saw ISDN BRI as a tool for Centrex feature
    phones, but that was about it. That business has faded out too.

    I wonder why? What was so different between the business models of the
    1990's and those of the 2020's that Centrex would no longer be a
    cost-saver for firms which chose to use it? Granted, the Coronavirus
    has caused a reexamination of work-at-home as a viable real-estate
    strategy, but I think the /time/ spent on dialing, connecting, and
    suffering with the shortcomings of cellular calls, like picket-fencing,
    fading, disconnecting, and - last but far from least - being easily
    tapped by anyone with an antenna ana a few items of listening
    equipment.

    ISDN Primary Rate Interface (PRI), which runs over a DS-1 ("T1") channel, is still out there, though again its number are in decline. It is a very good trunk interface for PBX systems, and many different 1995-2010 vintage switching systems support it, as it handled the dial-up era's modem pools. But most newer systems use SIP trunks instead. PRI has higher quality of service than SIP/RTP/IP, but the industry has moved away from it, as the higher-volume IP services usually have a lower price tag.

    I'm afraid comparing IP-based telephony to ISDN PRI links is the
    ultimate race-to-the-bottom in voice communicaiton. As far as I can
    tell, the only thing that makes SIP or VoIP or /any/ Internet-based
    real-time service - don't forget streaming video - viable is a surplus
    of bandwidth which will, inevitably, decline as paid-prioritization
    methods and equpment take hold.

    Bill, who is feeling old and out-of-step.

    --
    Bill Horne
    (Please remove QRM from my email address in order to write to me directly)

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  • From Grant Taylor@21:1/5 to Bill Horne on Sun May 29 15:47:59 2022
    On 5/29/22 2:51 PM, Bill Horne wrote:
    Why would the bells hate the Internet?

    I don't /know/ why. But I have a few speculations:

    - Not Invented Here (bells)
    - Bells tended to be EXTREMELY /circuit/ switched, which is
    diametrically opposed to /packet/ switched.
    - Bet on the wrong horse.
    - Had to double down on any of the above.

    To be sure, their business model was built around central offices
    which each served a rate center, but how could they have predicted
    and/or anticipated the development of VoIP? Did Mother Bell see /any/
    data transmission method as a threat? Why?

    I think it would be rather naive to think that /nobody/ saw the
    possibility of the Internet making things over a disparate distance
    equal cost to access vs the distance based billing of local vs long
    distance.

    I wonder why? What was so different between the business models of
    the 1990's and those of the 2020's that Centrex would no longer
    be a cost-saver for firms which chose to use it?

    I don't know of /any/ /single/ ILEC employee ever talking about
    Centrex. I think they had decided that Centrex was an unwanted step
    child by the 2000s when I was working on phone systems (PBXs / KSUs /
    ""Smart (read: dumb) phones / multi-line POTS). If I had known about
    Centrex and the pricing would have been acceptable, I probably would
    have done more with it.

    Granted, the Coronavirus has caused a reexamination of work-at-home as
    a viable real-estate strategy, but I think the /time/ spent on dialing, connecting, and suffering with the shortcomings of cellular calls,
    like picket-fencing, fading, disconnecting, and - last but far from
    least - being easily tapped by anyone with an antenna ana a few items
    of listening equipment.

    I don't do enough on cell to be able to comment. But I can say that
    my recent messing with ISDN vs POTS in my house, the call connection
    speed of ISDN is -- in a word -- /amazing/ to me compared to POTS.

    I'm afraid comparing IP-based telephony to ISDN PRI links is the
    ultimate race-to-the-bottom in voice communicaiton. As far as I can
    tell, the only thing that makes SIP or VoIP or /any/ Internet-based
    real-time service - don't forget streaming video - viable is a surplus
    of bandwidth which will, inevitably, decline as paid-prioritization
    methods and equpment take hold.

    I think that VoIP /across/ /the/ /Internet/ is a questionable idea at
    best. I also think that VoIP technology across the LAN is a very good technology. Especially if you have the LAN switches that can isolate
    & prioritize VoIP.

    With this in mind, both ISDN PRI and VoIP are communications protocols
    which imply an underlying network. The former seems to be a vertical
    market while the latter seems to be used ~> abused for anything and
    everything.

    I'm aware of some larger SIP trunks, which have supplanted ISDN PRI
    trunks, that are using dedicated access circuits. As such the
    dedication means that there will always be sufficient bandwidth.

    --
    Grant. . . .
    unix || die

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  • From John Levine@21:1/5 to All on Sun May 29 22:24:01 2022
    According to Bill Horne <malassQRMimilation@gmail.com>:
    On 22 May 2022 12:11:50 -0400, Fred Goldstein wrote:
    IT was better than a modem for Internet access, and that's what killed it as it
    was coming out in the early 1990s -- the Bells hated the Internet, which
    broke their locality-based business model, and while they couldn't attack
    modem users per se, they could at least attack the most obvious Internet
    user group, non-Centrex ISDN BRI users.

    Why would the bells hate the Internet?

    No per minute charges (other than what they could try to get for ISDN calls), no separations, no "value" pricing. It totally broke their business model. This was way before VoIP, they wanted data to pay by the minute too.

    I wonder why? What was so different between the business models of the
    1990's and those of the 2020's that Centrex would no longer be a
    cost-saver for firms which chose to use it?

    Phone switches have gotten a lot cheaper, wires haven't. Putting a PBX
    in the customer's office is a lot cheaper than running every extension
    back to the CO. I realize there were versions of Centrex that put the
    switch on the client's premises but now it's just an expensive telco
    managed PBX.

    R's,
    John
    --
    Regards,
    John Levine, johnl@taugh.com, Primary Perpetrator of "The Internet for Dummies",
    Please consider the environment before reading this e-mail. https://jl.ly

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  • From Garrett Wollman@21:1/5 to malQRMassimilation@gmail.com on Sun May 29 22:11:19 2022
    In article <20220529192147.GA29678@telecom.csail.mit.edu>,
    Bill Horne <malQRMassimilation@gmail.com> wrote:

    I'm going to have to descend from whatever foothold I used to have on
    Mount Olympus, and admit that I don't understand how you could "nail
    up" two bearer channels without disabling the ISDN line's capability
    to carry phone calls.

    We did not provide staff members' voice service, only the data
    connection to our lab.

    When the ISDN service ended, it was convenient for those of us who
    switched to CLEC ADSL to have that extra known-clean pair to our
    homes; folks who were trying to run ADSL on top of an existing
    unbundled ILEC voice circuit had a much harder time with installation
    and a great deal of finger-pointing between the two carriers.

    (Of course now we all have our Internet connectivity via DOCSIS, and
    much of this region -- although not Cambridge -- has three competing facilities-based carriers, Comcast, RCN, and Verizon FiOS.)

    -GAWollman

    --
    Garrett A. Wollman | "Act to avoid constraining the future; if you can, wollman@bimajority.org| act to remove constraint from the future. This is Opinions not shared by| a thing you can do, are able to do, to do together."
    my employers. | - Graydon Saunders, _A Succession of Bad Days_ (2015)

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  • From Garrett Wollman@21:1/5 to Doug McIntyre on Fri May 27 19:53:56 2022
    In article <O8SdnfjNCtEMEhP_nZ2dnUU7-LHNnZ2d@giganews.com>,
    Doug McIntyre <merlyn@dork.geeks.org> wrote:

    We always did 128k bonded connections with no issues. No mystery here.
    The biggest problem was the customer equipment. Most of it sucked
    hard.

    In the early part of my career, I supported ISDN connections for staff
    and faculty in my lab. This was before widespread cable ISP access
    and overbuilding, but Bell Atlantic (as then was) had a special tariff
    that allowed universities to get unmetered ISDN BRI lines installed at employees' homes. We used Ascend equipment to terminate a PRI in our
    building, which also supported model dial-up. Normally we'd use a
    smaller Ascend box (smaller than my current cable modem!) on the
    residential end, and we'd configure it to nail up both B channels 24x7
    and give each user a subnet.

    We were still doing this in 2001 when I bought my condo, so I was
    probably one of the only residential ISDN customers in my town. The
    special rate was detariffed around 2003 so I had the former ISDN pair
    ported to Speakeasy for ADSL service. Shortly thereafter, we made the
    decision to stop supporting our own dial-in and retired the PRI and
    modems. (It took only a few years after that to get to the point
    where employees were simply expected to pay for their own Internet connectivity, rather than getting reimbursed for it -- likewise cell
    phones.)

    -GAWollman

    --
    Garrett A. Wollman | "Act to avoid constraining the future; if you can, wollman@bimajority.org| act to remove constraint from the future. This is Opinions not shared by| a thing you can do, are able to do, to do together."
    my employers. | - Graydon Saunders, _A Succession of Bad Days_ (2015)

    ***** Moderator's Note *****

    My apologies to Garrett: this was supposed to have been published last
    week, but it got stuck in a holding file for some reason.

    Bill Horne
    Moderator

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  • From Garrett Wollman@21:1/5 to malassQRMimilation@gmail.com on Mon May 30 22:53:29 2022
    In article <20220529205126.GA30139@telecom.csail.mit.edu>,
    Bill Horne <malassQRMimilation@gmail.com> wrote:

    Why would the bells hate the Internet? To be sure, their business
    model was built around central offices which each served a rate
    center, but how could they have predicted and/or anticipated the
    development of VoIP?

    Voice over IP -- indeed, *multiparty* voice over IP -- was already a
    thing by the early 1990s, before most people had Internet access at
    all. The problem, as it was then conceived, was that there wasn't a
    whole lot of bandwidth available on inter-network links. The NSFnet
    had just upgraded from 56k to T-1 to T-3 over a very short period, and
    while people thought that a whole 45 Mbit/s was an *enormous* amount
    of bandwidth, that was still only 690 simultaneous point-to-point
    voice connections (assuming the routing actually worked out).
    Videoconferences were even more bandwidth-intensive.

    The folks I worked for in my first job out of college had a research
    program called "ISIP" -- "Integrated services Internet Protocol" --
    that was trying to figure out how to fix that, by providing both
    aggregate service guarantees and individual, per-flow resource
    reservations to the Internet architecture, and by translating those
    service requests into something that could be provided by the actual lower-layer network technologies. That involved quite a bit of
    standardizing service definitions, so that you could programmatically
    give a service request to a network provider and they could tell you
    yes-or-no whether they could service the request and how much it would
    cost. (This was what they hired me to work on, although it's largely
    not what I actually ended up doing.)

    Per-flow resource reservations over a public network turned out ot be
    an intractable problem, for reasons that were part technical and part
    economic. (The PSTN was able to make it work by effectively only
    providing one flavor of service, constant-bit-rate switched circuits.)
    The economic reason, which was obvious even in the late 1990s, was
    that (unlike the cooperative ARPANET and NSFnet, which were funded by
    a single body for a unitary purpose), the commercial Internet
    consisted of many mutually distrustful parties whose economic
    interests were adversarial to one another. (By 2000 there were big controversies about some large providers using their market power to
    impose a settlements regime on smaller carriers, when in the early
    days, providers exchanged traffic over neutral, settlement-free
    exchange points.) In order to implement anything like resource
    reservations, or even differentiated services, over the public
    Internet, you needed interdomain capacity reservations, and that
    wasn't in any provider's interest to implement at a cost customers
    were willing to pay.

    What really killed this line of R&D, however, was the dot-com bubble
    of the late 1990s. Suddenly, the newly commercialized Internet was
    *awash* in bandwidth, as everyone who had the VC money to burn
    invested in burying dark fiber in every right-of-way imaginable.
    There was no need to worry about resource scarcity, because if
    bandwidth was a problem, it was just a matter of swapping out the
    transceivers and suddenly you had double, triple, even ten times the
    bandwidth as before. Resource reservation is something you need
    contol latency when you're trying to maximize utilization of a limited resource;[1] it doesn't help you if the resource is so cheap that you
    can afford to run at 10% utilization all the time.

    High-end router vendors still support RSVP (the resource reservation
    protocol) and differentiated services for enterprise customers who
    require them, and I expect in cable ISP networks supporting voice they
    probably do get some internal use. But we've all been Zooming for the
    past two years and nobody's home wireless router supports them; we've
    been streaming Netflix for more than a decade. it's much easier and
    cheaper for the endpoint software to adapt to the available bandwidth
    than to set up DiffServ (never mind RSVP) at every customer router in
    the world.

    -GAWollman

    [1] There is a well-known result in queueing theory that summarizes
    like this: if you have a serialized resource of fixed capacity and a
    queue in front of it, and if arrivals are random and independent, then
    the length of the queue will grow without bound if the mean arrival
    rate of requests exceeds about 85% of the capacity of the resource.
    Of course real routers don't have infinite queues, they drop traffic,
    but the latency can still be enough to wreck isochronous streams like
    voice.
    --
    Garrett A. Wollman | "Act to avoid constraining the future; if you can, wollman@bimajority.org| act to remove constraint from the future. This is Opinions not shared by| a thing you can do, are able to do, to do together."
    my employers. | - Graydon Saunders, _A Succession of Bad Days_ (2015)

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